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mardi, 11 février 2014

Las ocho razones principales ¿Por qué el dólar controla la economía globalizada?

por Manuel Freytas*

Ex: http://paginatransversal.wordpress.com

Cuando hablamos del dólar, hablamos (por extensión ) de la referencia más significante de un sistema capitalista globalizado que controla gobiernos, países, sistemas económicos productivos, bancos centrales, centros financieros, arsenales nucleares y complejos militares industriales. Las empresas y los grupos transnacionales que controlan los sistemas financieros especulativos y los sistemas económicos productivos a escala mundial (por encima de los gobiernos) realizan mayoritariamente sus volúmenes de negocios, inversiones y tomas de ganancias en dólares. Y este informe, detallamos las 8 razones principales por las que el dólar es el centro de referencia de toda la economía mundial globalizada.

Cuando hablamos de la “moneda patrón”, hablamos antes que nada de un diseño estratégico de poder mundial que lo protege, interactivo y totalizado, que se concreta mediante una red infinita de asociaciones y vasos comunicantes entre el capital financiero, industrial y de servicios que convierte a los países y gobiernos en gerencias de enclave.

EEUU, la primera economía mundial, Europa, la segunda economía mundial (como bloque) y China, la tercera economía mundial realizan la mayoría de su comercio en dólares.

Si la divisa estadounidense colapsara, colapsarían EEUU, la Unión Europea y China (los mayores vendedores y compradores del mundo), que juntos suman más de la mitad de la economía mundial.

Las empresas y los grupos financieros transnacionales que controlan los sistemas financieros especulativos y los sistemas económicos productivos a escala mundial (por encima de los gobiernos) realizan mayoritariamente sus volúmenes de negocios, inversiones y tomas de ganancias en dólares.

En la trama del sistema capitalista globalizado la moneda estadounidense cumple las funciones de reserva mundial, sirve de respaldo para la mayoría de las monedas, interviene en la mayoría de las transacciones comerciales y operaciones financieras, y hace de medio internacional de pago.

En el centro del modelo imperial-económico capitalista globalizado , y a modo de protagonistas centrales, se encuentran EEUU y la Unión Europea (los principales compradores mundiales), y China (el principal vendedor mundial), cuyas economías entrelazadas se proyectan como claves y dominantes en el funcionamiento de todo el sistema capitalista a escala global. Las operaciones se realizan mayoritariamente con el dólar como moneda de transacción. Además, China tiene el 70% de sus reservas en valores y títulos del Tesoro de EEUU.

En este escenario, su caída significaría el fin del patrón dólar, y generaría una mundialización de la crisis en la que ningún Estado capitalista podría sobrevivir. Si se cayeran EEUU y el dólar, sería como si una bomba nuclear estallase en la economía y en el sistema capitalista y nadie podría escapar con vida de la radiación que se desataría a escala planetaria.

Las ocho razones principales

Hay ocho razones principales por las cuales ninguna potencia (central o emergente) podría “desacoplarse” del actual modelo funcional del sistema capitalista estructurado alrededor del dólar como moneda patrón y de la hegemonía de EEUU como primera potencia imperial:

1) El dólar es la moneda de cambio y de reserva internacional, y los países de todos los continentes (Europa, Asia, Latinoamérica, Ausralia y África) la utilizan en sus transacciones comerciales y tienen la mayoría de sus reservas en dólares, por lo que el fin del dólar implicaría un derrumbe mundial generalizado del sistema capitalista de la que ningún país estaría a salvo.

2) Más de un 70% de las reservas mundiales están en dólares, frente a un 25% en euros de la Unión Europea, que también utiliza el dólar. China, la tercera economía mundial, después de EEUU y la UE, tiene sus reservas en dólares, según el Banco Mundial y el FMI.

3) El dólar está involucrado en el 86% de las transacciones diarias de divisas en el mundo, a menudo como paso intermedio en el intercambio de otras dos divisas, según el Banco Internacional de Pagos. Aunque esto constituye un descenso con relación al 90% que representaba en 2001, ninguna divisa se le acerca.

4) Casi dos terceras partes de las reservas de los bancos centrales del mundo están denominadas en dólares, a pesar del temor de que se produzca un éxodo masivo de la divisa. Según el Banco Internacional de Pagos, el banco central de los bancos centrales, el dólar continúa siendo la “moneda favorita de los bancos centrales” y representa un 55% de sus activos y pasivos en moneda extranjera.

5) Un 80% de las transacciones internacionales, un 70% de las importaciones mundiales y la casi totalidad del comercio petrolero se realizan en dólares, según el Banco Mundial y el departamento de Comercio estadounidense.

6) El sistema financiero especulativo internacional está “dolarizado”, y las bolsas y los mercados internacionales del dinero operan mayoritariamente con la divisa estadounidense a través de las acciones y bonos desparramadas a escala global por los grandes bancos y fondos de inversión que tiene su central operativa en Wall Street, EEUU. La Bolsa de Nueva York, o NYSE, es el mayor mercado de dinero del mundo y concentra el mayor volumen de operaciones financieras en dólares que realizan empresas trasnacionales cotizantes a escala global. En la bolsa neoyorquina cotizan las principales empresas trasnacionales de los EEUU y del mundo, y si colapsara el dólar como divisa, estallaría Wall Street y arrastraría consigo a todos los mercados del dinero a escala global.

7) Los países emergentes y las potencias económicas desarrolladas generan más del 75% del PBI mundial en dólares (el resto se genera en euros y otras monedas), según el Banco Mundial. Para los países con una fuerte dependencia de las exportaciones de materias primas como el petróleo, las cifras pueden ser incluso más altas. El dólar también está profundamente arraigado en el comercio mundial. Las empresas reducen sus costos de transacción al usar una divisa común.

8) Las empresas y los grupos financieros transnacionales que controlan los sistemas financieros especulativos y los sistemas económicos productivos a escala mundial (por encima de los gobiernos) realizan mayoritariamente sus volúmenes de negocios, inversiones y tomas de ganancias en dólares, por lo cual un colapso terminal de la moneda estadounidense (como vaticinan los partidarios de la teoría del “desacople”) produciría una parálisis de la actividad económica mundial en cuestión de horas.

En este escenario, una hipotética caída del patrón dólar generaría una mundialización de la crisis en la que ningún Estado capitalista podría sobrevivir. Si se cayeran EEUU y el dólar, sería como si una bomba nuclear estallase en la economía y en el sistema capitalista y nadie podría escapar con vida de la radiación que se desataría a escala planetaria.

(*) Manuel Freytas es periodista, investigador, analista de estructuras del poder, especialista en inteligencia y comunicación estratégica. Es uno de los autores más difundidos y referenciados en la Web. Ver sus trabajos en Google y en IAR Noticias. manuelfreytas@iarnoticias.com

Fuente: IAR Noticias.

The Americanization of the World

 

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The Americanization of the World

The Americanization of the World, by William Thomas Stead.

With this post, I will begin a review of the above titled book, written in 1902.  In order to provide context as to my purpose for and approach in this review, I will begin by re-introducing and expanding upon my working hypothesis under which I have been considering various events over the last century and more.

1) There is a group of elite that operate above politicians and national governments, working through think-tanks and other global foundations and institutions.

2) The elite are not all of one mind, although in many ways their interests are aligned and the tools through which they leverage control are equally beneficial to all.

3) Until the turn of the 20th century, much of this control was exercised through the British government and other British-based institutions.

4) Beginning as early as the late 19th century (and perhaps the mid-nineteenth century), two things were becoming clear to this group:

a.The ability of Great Britain to be an effective tool for global reach would soon reach its limits.

b.The potential reach through the United States was untapped and, relatively speaking, unlimited.

5) The commonality in philosophical heritage and language of the people in Great Britain and the United States made the US population susceptible to similar tools of control – tools already established and proven effective.

6) Actions were taken beginning in the late 19th century to effect the transition of this tool for global control from Great Britain to the United States.

7) These actions, through two World Wars, culminated in the United States moving to the position as the primary tool for control by the elite.

8) Winston Churchill – worshiped despite being the leading political figure during the entire span of the demise of the British Empire – played the key role in supporting this transition: both the decline of Great Britain and the ascendency of the United States as leader of this broader, English-speaking, elite controlled empire.

9) As opposed to looking elsewhere for world government, the United States has been the tool to implement world government – taking a leadership position in establishing the UN, IMF, World Bank, NATO, etc.

10) The good news?  Decentralization will win out: witness the break-up of the artificial conglomerations of the USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia.  Witness similar events unfolding in Iraq, the inability to consolidate in Afghanistan.  Witness tiny Belgium, divided in two – yet somehow the entirety of Europe is going to meld into one?  Much more capable thinkers than I am write of the coming of the end of the nation-state (see especially the sections on Barzun and van Creveld).

Some of the visible actions taken to move the US into this leadership position include:

1) The creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913

2) The engagement of the US into the Great War, despite overwhelming public opinion against getting involved in this European conflict

3) The engagement of the US into the Second World War, again despite overwhelming public opinion against getting involved in this conflict.

4) Various purposeful actions taken by the British government to a) overcome the historical animosities between the two countries, and b) move the US toward the position of global primacy.

If you find this too tin-foil-hat for you, there is little reason to continue reading this post (if you haven’t stopped already).

While reading 1939 – The War That Had Many Fathers, I came across another event that seems to have helped move the US into a position to take the hand-off from Great Britain: the assassination of President McKinley in 1901.  As I explain here, this event helped to move the US from a negative or neutral posture toward Great Britain (and even somewhat favorable to Germany) toward a much more positive relationship with Great Britain through the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt.

This transition was but one step in what is known as the Great Rapprochement, the turning of US policy toward Great Britain in the period 1895 – 1915.

Also while reading the above-mentioned book I came across the name William Thomas Stead, and his book “The Americanization of the World.”  Given the title and description of the book, and that this book was initially published in 1902 (precisely at the beginning of this changing relationship), it seemed to me a worthwhile read given the hypothesis I identify above.

With that lengthy preamble out of the way, I offer an even lengthier introduction of Mr. Stead….

Who was Stead?  “William Thomas Stead (5 July 1849 – 15 April 1912) was an English newspaper editor….”

If his date of death seems familiar, it is because Stead died aboard the Titanic. Before this, he was a tremendously influential newspaper editor and author:

In 1880, Stead went to London to be assistant editor of the Liberal Pall Mall Gazette (a forerunner of the London Evening Standard), where he set about revolutionizing a traditionally conservative newspaper “written by gentlemen for gentlemen”.

Stead early on learned the power that the press could project over government action:

Stead’s first sensational campaign was based on a Nonconformist pamphlet, The Bitter Cry of Outcast London. His lurid stories of squalid life in the slums had a wholly beneficial effect on the capital. A Royal Commission recommended that the government should clear the slums and encourage low-cost housing in their place. It was Stead’s first success.

Despite being able to successfully move government to action, not every endeavor ended well; still, his reach and magnitude knew few limits:

In 1884, Stead pressured the government to send his friend General Gordon into Sudan to protect British interests in Khartoum. The eccentric Gordon disobeyed orders, and the siege of Khartoum, Gordon’s death, and the failure of the hugely expensive Gordon Relief Expedition was one of the great imperial disasters of the period.

 

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Gordon was sent to evacuate British citizens from a troubled region and to otherwise abandon Sudan.  Once Gordon arrived, he apparently pursued a different course: he decided it was best to crush the Muslim uprising for fear that it would eventually spread to Egypt as well.  Gordon, with 6,000 men, began a defense of Khartoum.

On March 18, 1884, the Mahdist army laid siege to the city. The rebels stopped river traffic and cut the telegraph line to Cairo. Khartoum was cut off from resupply, which led to food shortages, but could still communicate with the outside world by using messengers. Under pressure from the public, in August 1884, the British government decided to reverse its policy and send a relief force to Khartoum.

“Under pressure from the public” a relief expedition force was sent, but failed to arrive in time to save Gordon and his men:

On January 26, 1885, Khartoum fell to the Mahdist army of 50,000 men. At that time of year the Nile was shallow enough to cross by wading and the Mahdists were able to breach the city’s defenses by attacking the poorly-defended approaches from the river. The entire garrison was slaughtered, including General Gordon. His head was cut off and delivered to the Mahdi. Two days later the relief expedition entered the city to find that they were too late.

Lord Kitchener later reconquered Sudan.

Forgive my diversion into this tale of late nineteenth century British imperialism; however it serves to demonstrate the power and influence that Stead possessed.  As cited above, “In 1884, Stead pressured the government to send his friend General Gordon into Sudan….”  It seems reasonable that he also was the one to apply pressure to send aid to “his friend” Gordon.

More on Stead and his influence:

1885 saw him force the British government to supply an additional £5.5million to bolster weakening naval defenses, after which he published a series of articles.  Stead was no hawk however; instead he believed Britain’s strong navy was necessary to maintain world peace.

Stead saw peace through war.  He saw the British Navy as a global force for good.  Consider how the tools used by the elite have not had to change a bit over the 125 years since Stead’s time, as the same tools used by Stead to help usurp wealth from the British middle class remain completely effective in the propaganda campaigns designed to usurp wealth from the middle class of the US today.

…he is also credited as originating the modern journalistic technique of creating a news event rather than just reporting it, as his most famous “investigation”, the Eliza Armstrong case, was to demonstrate.

Stead had other passions, showing an ability to understand future global consolidation well before any generally visible steps:

Stead was a pacifist and a campaigner for peace, who favored a “United States of Europe” and a “High Court of Justice among the nations”….

Stead held court in high places:

[Stead] was an early imperialist dreamer, whose influence on Cecil Rhodes in South Africa remained of primary importance; and many politicians and statesmen, who on most subjects were completely at variance with his ideas, nevertheless owed something to them. Rhodes made him his confidant….

Rhodes, of course, cornered the South African diamond market with the help of rather influential friends – call them the elite of the elite.  Rhodes was also quite influential regarding British Imperial policy:

Historian Richard A. McFarlane has called Rhodes “as integral a participant in southern African and British imperial history as George Washington or Abraham Lincoln are in their respective eras in United States history…

And Rhodes was influenced by Stead.

Stead found his influence ever-growing:

The number of his publications gradually became very large, as he wrote with facility and sensational fervor on all sorts of subjects, from The Truth about Russia (1888) to If Christ Came to Chicago! (Laird & Lee, 1894), and from Mrs Booth (1900) to The Americanisation of the World (1902).

And finally, to show the well-rounded character of the man:

Stead claimed to be in receipt of messages from the spirit world, and, in 1892, to be able to produce automatic writing.  His spirit contact was alleged to be the departed Julia Ames, an American temperance reformer and journalist whom he met in 1890 shortly before her death.  In 1909 he established Julia’s Bureau where inquirers could obtain information about the spirit world from a group of resident mediums.

As mentioned, Stead died on the Titanic.  His reputation survived:

Following his death, Stead was widely hailed as the greatest newspaperman of his age…. Like many journalists, he was a curious mixture of conviction, opportunism and sheer humbug. According to his biographer W. Sydney Robinson, “He twisted facts, invented stories, lied, betrayed confidences, but always with a genuine desire to reform the world – and himself.”

Why all of this background on Stead?  Well, it seems he was a rather influential fellow within the British elite at precisely the time when the United States began its turn toward Great Britain: an empire which (to say nothing of the spat in 1776) less than a century before burned the White House and much of the capitol, and only a few decades before, while officially neutral, aided the South in their war for independence – guilty enough to ultimately pay restitution of $15.5 million for building war ships for the Confederacy.

Great Britain was officially neutral throughout the American Civil War, 1861–65. Elite opinion tended to favor the Confederacy, while public opinion tended to favor the United States.

I will suggest it is elite opinion that counts when it comes to matters of politics, for example:

Diplomatic observers were suspicious of British motives. The Russian Minister in Washington Eduard de Stoeckl noted, “The Cabinet of London is watching attentively the internal dissensions of the Union and awaits the result with an impatience which it has difficulty in disguising.” De Stoeckl advised his government that Britain would recognize the Confederate States at its earliest opportunity. Cassius Clay, the United States Minister in Russia, stated, “I saw at a glance where the feeling of England was. They hoped for our ruin! They are jealous of our power. They care neither for the South nor the North. They hate both.”

Yet as early as 1895 – only 30 years after the end of the war – the US and Britain began their courtship.  And in the background was William Thomas Stead.

Finally, on to his book and the first chapter:

As it was through the Christian Church that the monotheism of the Jew conquered the world, so it may be through the Americans that the English ideals expressed in the English language may make a tour of the planet. (Page 3)

Setting aside the exaggeration of the claim, given the religion of statolatry (to borrow a phrase from Charles Burris), the comparison seems quite appropriate.

Stead saw the inevitability of the United States taking the preeminent position among the English-speaking nations.  He looked at population growth over the preceding 100 years (including empire), but also at differentiating the white population from the non-white (a recurring theme in his writing); he felt strongly that it was the white population that was of importance.

We are comparing the English-speaking communities.  The right of leadership does not depend upon how many millions, more or less, of colored people we have compelled to pay us taxes. (Page 5)

Stead, not shy, makes plain one purpose of colonizing people of color – compelling tax payments.  Stead also discounts the millions of British subjects in, for example, India, Africa, and the West Indies when it comes to considering the trends of population and future supremacy.

Population should be weighed as well as counted.  In a census return a Hottentot counts for as much as a Cecil Rhodes; a mean white on a southern swamp is the census equivalent for a Mr. J.P. Morgan or Mr. Edison.

A nation which has no illiterates can hardly be counted off against the Russians, only three per cent of whom can read or write. (Page 9)

He also sees no hope for reversal of this trend in favor of the US and to the detriment of Great Britain – not only in population but also industrial production and therefore capability of global reach.

Having presented this case, he suggests Britain embraces this inevitable change, restoring old bonds:

The philosophy of common sense teaches us that, seeing we can never again be the first, standing alone, we should lose no time in uniting our fortunes with those who have passed us in the race. Has the time not come when we should make a resolute effort to realize the unity of the English-speaking race?  …while if we remain outside, nursing our Imperial insularity on monarchical lines, we are doomed to play second fiddle for the rest of our existence.  Why not finally recognize the truth and act upon it?  What sacrifices are there which can be regarded as too great to achieve the realization of the ideal of the unity of the English-speaking race? (Page 6)

Stead sees continuous contention between the United States and Great Britain for control of global trade, with Britain eventually and ultimately the loser.  Stead is writing during the very early phases of the Great Rapprochement.  As regarding great sacrifices, considering the tremendous work done by Great Britain behind the scenes to create the propaganda in the US necessary to drag the American people into two world wars (as I view these wars as key to formalizing the transition of power), it seems reasonable to conclude that Stead’s suggestion that no sacrifices should be considered too great was taken quite seriously.

Stead goes on to outline the power and control available through a united US and British front: population, land mass, control of the seas and most navigable rivers.  And gold: “With the exception of Siberia they have seized all the best goldmines of the world.” (Page 7) Not a barbarous relic, apparently.

Between the two, they have seized the dominions of Spain, despoiled the Portuguese, the French and the Dutch, and left nothing but scraps to Italy and the Germans. (Page 7)  The only statistic in which these non-English-speaking nations hold the lead is in the amount of national debt! (Page 11)

Stead is looking for a savior, someone to lead in bringing these two – the US and Britain – into one, with the US taking the leading position:

The question arises whether this gigantic aggregate can be pooled.  We live in the day of combinations.  Is there no Morgan who will undertake to bring about the greatest combination of all – a combination of the whole English Speaking race?

The same motive which has led to the building up of the Trust in the industrial world may bring about this great combination in the world of politics.  (Page 12)

Presumably he is writing here of the work done by Morgan in consolidating the US steel industry.  Of course, Morgan also had connections with the same elite family that assisted Rhodes with diamonds in South Africa:

In 1895, at the depths of the Panic of 1893, the Federal Treasury was nearly out of gold.  President Grover Cleveland accepted Morgan’s offer to join with the Rothschilds and supply the U.S. Treasury with 3.5 million ounces of gold to restore the treasury surplus in exchange for a 30-year bond issue.

It should also be kept in mind: McKinley was a Rockefeller man; Rockefeller had ties to Germany.  Teddy Roosevelt, beneficiary of McKinley’s assassination, was a Morgan man; Morgan was a strong friend of Britain.  It seems the “Morgan” that Stead was looking for in the political combination was the same “Morgan” that he was referring to in the industrial combination.

Stead sees the impossibility of the American people accepting a combination where those in America would accept being subservient again to the crown:

It is, of course, manifestly impossible, even if it were desirable, for the Americans to come back within the pale of the British Empire. (Page 15)

Instead, he suggests Britain should accept reunion “on whatever terms may be arrived at.” (Page 15)

While not an overt political reunion, it certainly seems that a reunion was accepted by the British – and ultimately the U.S.  If one visible actor can be placed at the center of this “success,” I will suggest it is Winston Churchill.  For much of the first half of the 20th century, Churchill played a leading role in British politics; even when not in an official position, he was communicating directly with Roosevelt behind the scenes in order to facilitate America’s entry into the Second World War – the final event in ensuring the transition.

During this time, Britain (or more precisely, the British population) certainly paid the price of reunion – “whatever terms necessary,” as Stead suggested in 1902: the terms for the British population can be seen in the blood of two world wars, inflation, a depression, a loss of manufacture and industry.  This price was paid over the next 50 years.  In the end, the United States clearly stood on top of the English-speaking world.

One politician, more than any other, stood in a position of leadership and influence while Britain was economically and physically bled: Winston Churchill.  Presiding (in various roles) over such a massive loss of Empire would normally result in the derision of the leader.  Yet Churchill is exalted.  Perhaps it has little to do with his role in the death of the British Empire, but because of his role in the birth of the larger, Anglo Empire.  For this reason, the gatekeepers of mainstream history frame Churchill in a praiseworthy manner.

And one writer, a man who traveled within and influenced the highest circles of the elite, wrote the book before the events even occurred: William Thomas Stead.

I will continue with further posts regarding this book as I find comments of import.  In the meantime, the examination of this one life and this first chapter has provided insights supportive of my working hypothesis regarding the transition of elite power and control from Great Britain to the United States.

Un atlas géopolitique du monde actuel

Un atlas géopolitique du monde actuel

par Georges FELTIN-TRACOL

Chauprade-2.jpgIl est toujours difficile de recenser un ouvrage qui l’a déjà été par nos soins. Aymeric Chauprade vient de publier la troisième édition, actualisée et augmentée, de sa Chronique du choc des civilisations. Intitulée « Civilisations en collisions » et mis en ligne sur le présent site le 9 octobre 2011, la précédente recension évoquait les qualités de cette deuxième édition qui valut l’éviction de son auteur de toutes les chaires universitaires à la suite d’une campagne de presse malveillante orchestrée par un de ces stipendiés par l’Oncle Sam.

 

 

Depuis 2011, l’ébranlement de la planète se poursuit avec de nouveaux conflits dont les fameuses révolutions arabes et le renversement de plusieurs régimes autoritaires laïques en Afrique du Nord, au Proche-Orient. Mais Aymeric Chauprade prend aussi en compte le déclin relatif des États-Unis d’Amérique, la montée en puissance de la Chine et la renaissance convalescente de la Russie. Il offre par conséquent au lecteur une vaste palette de textes et de cartes très éclairantes.

 

Le temps des civilisations

 

Favorable à une géopolitique culturelle (culturaliste ?), cet esprit aguerri aux sciences dures, les mathématiques en particulier, n’hésite pas à se référer à la longue durée chère à Fernand Braudel. Il replace dans un contexte politico-historique les heurts contemporains. Si l’ouvrage – le terme d’atlas serait plus approprié – s’ouvre sur un planisphère des civilisations, il ne faut pas se méprendre : Aymeric Chauprade n’est pas le disciple français de feu Samuel P. Huntington. Rappelons qu’en 1996, son premier essai portait sur L’Espace économique francophone. Pour une francophonie intégrale, vaine initiative de renouvellement des conceptions du gaulliste de la Francité, Philippe Rossillon. Il discerne ainsi quinze civilisations là où Huntington n’en distinguait que neuf !

 

« Le choc des civilisations, observe Aymeric Chauprade, traverse les siècles, et même, pour certaines civilisations, les millénaires; il s’apaise, qui reprend, et donne à l’histoire des chocs sourds et puissants, comme si des plaques tectoniques venaient à en découdre, causant d’immenses secousses dans l’humanité (p. 8). » Loin de se focaliser sur un seul antagonisme réducteur, il cherche plutôt à dresser un panorama précis de l’ensemble des territoires conflictuels tant aux confins qu’au cœur même des civilisations. Les dix chapitres géo-thématiques balaient dans le détail les cahots actuels.

 

Dégagé de tout subjectivisme, Aymeric Chauprade veut surtout montrer au lecteur la polymorphie des secousses civilisationnelles. Certes, il commence par évoquer l’affrontement islamo-occidental, mais il prend garde de ne pas sombrer dans un quelconque réductionnisme géopolitique ou de plaquer sur les événements ses propres représentations géopolitiques. Oui, l’islam concurrence le monde occidental. Mais, en dépit de l’exécution d’otages en Irak ou au Sahel, cette menace est maintenant moins terroriste – même si les risques persistent – que migratoire et démographique. La forte fécondité des immigrés d’Afrique subsaharienne prépare « une France dont la population serait majoritairement extra-européenne autour de 2040 (p. 58) ». Les bouleversements politiques sur les littoraux méridional et oriental de la Méditerranée font de cette aire géographique tricontinentale le point faible de l’Europe. Mais le péril mahométan se retrouve souvent instrumentaliser par les États-Unis d’Amérique notoirement anti-européens.

 

L’Europe doit lutter contre l’« Islamérique », cette alliance objective entre l’oligarchie étatsunienne, voire nord-américaine, et certaines tendances fanatiques de l’islam. Washington veut affaiblir l’Europe qui demeure la seule véritable rivale globale, d’où une longue et constante politique d’encerclement par des forces musulmanes hostiles soutenues en sous-main par l’hégémonie yankee. « Après l’Afghanistan (durant la guerre froide), puis les guerres de Bosnie, du Kosovo et d’Irak, après le soutien à l’A.K.P. en Turquie et aux Frères musulmans dans le monde arabe, l’Amérique offre en Libye un nouvel épisode de son alliance souterraine avec l’islam radical (p. 58). » Il s’agit par ailleurs d’entraver durablement la Russie qui retrouve son statut de grande puissance. Vladimir Poutine, l’homme le plus puissant du monde en 2013 selon le magazine Forbes, a compris que « l’énergie est le levier du redressement de la puissance russe (p. 101) ». Il faut par conséquent que Washington ou plus exactement l’« État profond » étatsunien – cette « structure de gouvernement à la fois invisible (par rapport à l’administration officielle) et continue (puisqu’elle survit aux changements de président), rassemblant des éléments et des moyens du Pentagone, de la C.I.A. et du F.B.I., des sociétés militaires privées et, plus globalement, du complexe militaro-financier (p. 13) » élimine dès le départ toute menace potentielle. La proximité et la connaissance, entre la haute-administration U.S. et les milieux financiers facilitent la privatisation de la guerre. Souvenons-nous que « la guerre d’Irak est directement à l’origine de l’exploitation capitalistique des S.M.P. Née d’un petit contrat de la C.I.A. de 5,4 millions de dollars en 2001, Blackwater (rebaptisée Xe en 2009) pèse, grâce à l’Afghanistan et l’Irak, 1,2 milliard de dollars. En 1995, Dyn-Corp ne pesait que 30 millions de dollars : c’est aujourd’hui la plus importante S.M.P. au monde, son chiffre d’affaires dépassant les 3 milliards de dollars (p. 25) ».

 

La pluralité de l’islam

 

Cependant, il ne faut pas considérer les islamistes comme de simples marionnettes aux mains des États-Unis. Les djihadistes savent nouer des alliances si l’exigent leurs intérêts. Et puis, l’islam est lui-même très varié, sinon l’Iran chiite, le Hezbollah libanais et leur allié baasiste syrien ne s’opposeraient pas avec un certain succès aux visées sunnites de l’Arabie Saoudite et du Qatar, appuyés par des puissances occidentales toujours aussi aveugles et bien corrompues par le pognon des hydrocarbures. Il traite aussi d’une donnée guère connue, à savoir « Les populations arabes de l’Amérique latine (p. 254) ». Issue de vagues d’immigration successives, cette population latino-américaine d’origine arabe « se situe dans la fourchette de 17 à 25 millions, ce qui représenterait 5 % de la population totale. […] Les Arabes d’Amérique, très majoritairement chrétiens, se sont fortement assimilés et ils se retrouvent même souvent dans les élites économiques, voire politiques, de leur accueil (p. 254) » comme le Mexicain Carlos Slim, le Chilien José Said ou l’Argentin Carlos Menem.

 

Si l’islam fait des convertis en Amérique latine, ce subcontinent, bastion du catholicisme romain, est surtout confronté « au défi des Églises pentecôtistes et évangéliques venues des États-Unis (p. 256) ». L’auteur mentionne les nombreuses méthodes de l’hégémonie yankee : l’action militaire, directe ou non, et/ou l’influence culturelle à travers les films, le non-art contemporain, les musiques dégénérées… Mais il attire aussi l’attention sur leur maîtrise élevée dans la dissimulation, la désinformation et l’intoxication. Tirant le bilan de l’invasion de l’Irak et l’avènement d’un gouvernement chiite proche de Téhéran, il prévient que « les Américains ont l’art de faire croire aux Européens qu’ils cumulent maladresses et erreurs (erreurs de la C.I.A., du Pentagone ou du département d’État), leur seul but étant en réalité de masquer ce que l’on appelle, dans le langage militaire français “ l’effet final recherché ” (p. 168) ».

 

Aymeric Chauprade examine avec soin tous les continents, hormis déplorons-le, l’Océanie dans laquelle est toujours présente au grand dam des Anglo-Saxons (Australie, Grande-Bretagne, États-Unis et Nouvelle-Zélande) la France, deuxième domaine océanique et maritime au monde et donc potentielle thalassocratie. À quand un Jeu de la France dans l’océan Pacifique, en partie traité par feu Hervé Coutau-Bégarie avec sa Géostratégie du Pacifique en 2001 ?

 

Vers l’ère des grands marchés intercontinentaux ?

 

La partie septentrionale de l’océan Pacifique aux portes de l’Extrême-Orient connaît un regain de tensions entre la Chine et le Japon. Y a-t-il un risque de guerre ouverte entre Pékin et Tokyo ? Sans répondre à cette difficile question qui nécessite des facultés de médium, Aymeric Chauprade relève que « les deux pays n’ont jamais été aussi interdépendants économiquement. La Chine est le premier partenaire commercial du Japon (elle représente plus de 20 % de son commerce) et le Japon est le premier fournisseur de la Chine (15 % des importations). Le Japon délocalise en Chine et, déjà, plus de 9 millions de Chinois travaillent pour le capital japonais. Cette intégration économique du Japon et de la Chine se fait de manière plus large dans le cadre du plus grand marché économique en formation dans le monde, le marché dit de l’A.S.E.A.N. + 3 (Chine, Japon, Inde), qui est devenu une réalité le 1er janvier 2010. Plus les années vont passer, plus la réalité économique du Japon va diverger de celle des États-Unis au profit de cette sphère de coprospérité asiatique (pp. 215 – 216) ». L’accélération des négociations entre Bruxelles et Washington pour constituer au plus tôt une grande zone de libre-échange transatlantique se comprend mieux quand on sait l’existence de ce  marché asiatique très étendu.

 

Cet atlas géopolitique est remarquable. Aymeric Chauprade met en perspective les problématiques géostratégiques avec leurs soubassements plus occultes. Pour preuve, depuis 2009, on a trouvé en Méditerranée orientale d’importantes bassins d’hydrocarbures dont la délimitation des zones d’exploitation en haute mer avive les querelles frontalières. La volonté des Occidentaux de contrôler ces ressources à peine découvertes explique leur ingérence en Syrie. Pis, l’atlas rapporte « en Grèce en 2012 et à Chypre en 2013 […] une tentative des milieux de la finance anglo-américaine (qui dominent le F.M.I. et l’Union européenne) de forcer les Grecs surendettés (pourtant assis sur des richesses considérables en hydrocarbures et en or) à céder les actifs qu’ils possèdent dans le secteur énergétique et les ports stratégiques (p. 107) ».

 

Avec un rare talent, Aymeric Chauprade ausculte les continents, explique les enjeux et identifie les manœuvres en coulisse, là où se joue vraiment à chaque instant le sort du monde.

 

Georges Feltin-Tracol

 

• Aymeric Chauprade, Chronique du choc des civilisations. Du 11 septembre 2001 à la guerre de Syrie, actualité, analyses géopolitiques et cartes pour comprendre le monde d’aujourd’hui, Chronique Éditions, (15 – 27, rue Moussorgski 75018 Paris), 2013, 272 p., 31 €.

 


 

Article printed from Europe Maxima: http://www.europemaxima.com

 

URL to article: http://www.europemaxima.com/?p=3577

Intervention de Jean Haudry


XVIIIe TABLE RONDE de"Terre & Peuple"

Intervention de Jean Haudry

par terreetpeuple

Aymeric Chauprade aux Ronchons

Jeudi 20 février :

Aymeric Chauprade

aux Ronchons

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