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samedi, 24 octobre 2015

Asia Central, región geoestratégica

asie_centrale.jpg

Asia Central, región geoestratégica

Muchas veces la división del territorio mundial en continentes no es suficiente para realizar estudios detallados de ciertas zonas del Planeta. Por eso, el mundo se divide en varias regiones o subregiones, aceptadas y diferenciadas por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU).

Una de estas regiones del mundo es la zona de Asia Central. Localizada entre el Mar Caspio y la frontera oeste de China, esta región, antiguamente conocida como el Turkestán, está formada actualmente por cinco repúblicas ex-soviéticas: Kazajistán, Kirguizistán, Tayikistán, Turkmenistán y Uzbekistán.

Geografía física

Al norte de Irán, Afganistán y Pakistán se encuentran los países del Asia Central, una extensa región de más de 4 millones de kilómetros cuadrados. Los “Cinco -stán” se pueden dividir en dos grupos: los llanos y los montañosos. Mientras que Kazajistán, Uzbekistán y Turkmenistán son extensas llanuras, Kirguizistán y Tayikistán son dos pequeños países montañosos.

Los tres primeros países tienen una superficie mucho mayor y deben su planitud a la gran Meseta de Ustyurt, de 200.000 kilómetros cuadrados. En esta zona el clima es árido y el suelo rocoso, siendo la altitud media de 150m. Tradicionalmente, la población de los alrededor de Ustyurt se ha dedicado a actividades relacionadas con el pastoreo, con rebaños de cabras, ovejas y camellos, sin llegar a asentarse definitivamente en ningún lugar.

National_emblem_of_KyrgyzstanPor otro lado, Kirguizistán y Tayikistán, mucho más pequeños, son dos países rodeados por importantes cordilleras montañosas. En el caso de Kirguizistán, el escudo del esta ex-república soviética simboliza el relieve que predomina en el país. Es en ocasiones llamado la “Suiza de Asia Central”, debido a que la región montañosa de Tian Shan cubre el 80% del territorio.

Tayikistán no es menos montañoso, ya que a las montañas del Tian Shan se une la cordillera del Pamir, lo cual hace que más del 50% de la superficie de este país se encuentre por encima de los 3.000 metros.

Las cordilleras de Tian Shan y del Pamir son dos de los relieves más importantes del mundo, junto con los Himalayas, las Montañas Rocosas y los Andes. Esta región del mundo está bajo la influencia de grandes relieves montañosos, lo cual hace que Asia Central sea un lugar inhóspito y de difícil acceso.

Aun así, en Kirguizistán y Tayikistán encontramos también tierras bajas y valles, donde se encuentran la mayoría de ciudades y donde se concentra la actividad económica. En en el noroeste de Tayikistán se encuentra el Valle de Ferghana, la zona más fértil de todo Asia Central.

Aral_mapLa región de Asia Central es atravesada por dos importantes ríos: el Syr Darya por el norte y el Amu Darya por el sur.

El río Syr Darya nace en las montañas de Tian Shan, mientras que el Amu Darya nace en la Cordillera del Pamir. Ambos llegan hasta el Mar de Aral y suponen la principal fuente de agua de la región.

El clima de Asia Central está marcado por una continentalidad extrema, que limita las posibilidades de explotación de la tierra y de asentamiento de la población. Con excepción de algunas zonas, como el ya mencionado Valle de Ferghana (compartido por Uzbekistán, Kirguizistán y Tayikistán) con una tierra fértil, una buena provisión de agua y un alta densidad de población.

El resto de Asia Central se distingue por paisajes desérticos, desde el desierto de arena de Turkmenistán que forma parte de la depresión aralo-caspiana, hasta las herbosas estepas de Kazajstán que anticipan Mongolia, y por paisajes montañosos, como los que ofrecen las cordilleras Pamir y Tian-Shan, cadenas montañosas al norte del Himalaya.

El desierto de Karakum cubre el 80% del territorio de Turkmenistán, y el desierto de Kyzylkum una gran parte de Uzbekistán. Por otro lado, y como ya hemos dicho, el 41% de la superficie de Kirguistán y casi la mitad de la territorio de Tayikistán se encuentran a una altitud de más de 3.000 m. (fuente: casaasia.es)

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fuente del mapa: stantours.com

Geografía económica: ¿dónde se localizan los recursos?

Con casi 65 millones de habitantes, Asia Central es una región muy poco poblada. La densidad de población es de 16 habitantes por kilómetro cuadrado. Las ciudades más importantes son Almatý (1.400.000 hab.), Astaná (700.000 hab.), Taskent (2.100.000 hab.), Biskek (800.00 hab.) y Asjabad (1.000.000 hab.). Otras, como Dushanbe (Tayikistán) muestran este fantasmagórico aspecto.

800px-Киргизские_кибитки_на_реке_ЧуAl contrario que otras regiones como el Sudeste Asiático, que están superpobladas, la zona de Asia Central se ha caracterizado siempre, desde los tiempos de la Ruta de la Seda, por ser una región despoblada y utilizada principalmente como de paso.

La vida en la estepa y entre las montañas no es fácil. La mayoría de la población ha sido siempre nómada (en el dibujo de la izquierda, casas kirguizas fácilmente desmontables).

Las pocas ciudades grandes actuales, sin embargo, sí que representan centros de relativa importancia económica. Astaná se presenta como una ciudad moderna que puede llegar a ser un importante centro financiero y de negocios, líder de la región.

La población de esta región se concentra en dos zonas principalmente: el norte de Kazajstán (zona de la capital, Astaná) y el Valle de Ferghana (confluencia de Uzbekistán, Tayikistán y Kirguizistán). El Valle de Ferghana es la zona más fértil de la región de Asia Central, y allí la gente se ha podido asentar gracias a los cultivos de arroz, patatas y algodón.

Pero aunque la agricultura es la base de la economía real para las gentes que viven en el Valle de Ferghana, en esas tierras existen recursos mucho más importantes que los agrícolas. Es una zona rica en petróleo, gas y minas de jade.

En Asia Central, aunque la mayoría de la población siga subsistiendo de la actividad pastoril y agrícola, los gobiernos han comprendido que el crecimiento económico y el desarrollo se basan en su capacidad para exportar materias primas. En otras palabras, con un rebaño de cabras uno puede vivir, pero con un yacimiento de gas uno puede hacerse millonario.

Por eso mismo los gobiernos de Asia Central quieren desmarcarse de la tradicional imagen de nómadas y agricultores, para pasar a ser potenciales exportadores de importancia mundial.

En relación al petróleo y el gas, son los países más cercanos al Mar Caspio los que se benefician de los yacimientos. Las reservas de petróleo de Asia Central se estiman en 50.000 millones de barriles. Kazajstán tiene el 3,2% de las reservas petrolíferas del mundo, y Turkmenistán el 8,7% de las reservas de gas.

TABLA: Países por reservas probadas de gas natural (Wikipedia)

TABLA: Países por reservas probadas de petróleo (Wikipedia)

Pero no sólo es importante el hecho de tener materias primas, sino también tener la posibilidad de moverlas y exportarlas. Y los países de Asia Central están sabiendo hacerlo. Por ejemplo, en Kazajstán, los importantes yacimientos de Kashagan (petróleo) y Karachaganak (gas), están conectados mediante oleoductos y gasoductos con Rusia, a través del Caspian Pipeline Consortium, un consorcio entre varias empresas privadas y públicas para la gestión de dicha ruta entre Kazajstán y Rusia. En 2008 se movilizaron 35 millones de toneladas de petróleo.

En el siguiente epígrafe analizaremos las distintas rutas que siguen oleoductos y gasoductos desde Asia Central hacia el resto del continente.

Las potencias tradicionales (Reino Unido, Francia, Alemania, Estados Unidos…) están dejando paso a las potencias regionales en el control de los recursos de Asia Central. De esta forma, los gobiernos ruso y chino, junto a los de Kazajstán, Turkmenistán y Uzbekistán, están realizando el reparto de los yacimientos en el entorno del Mar Caspio. De forma que son los países de la región los que explotan y exportan las materias.

NOTICIA: La inglesa BP vende a la rusa Lukoil su participación en el yacimiento kazako de Tenguiz

Por otro lado, a parte de gas y petróleo, la zona de Asia Central es rica en recursos minerales. Como vimos en el artículo Minerales codiciados, Kazajistán es un país emergente en la exportación de estas materias primas. Dispone del 30% de las reservas mundiales de mineral de cromo, el 25% del manganeso y el 10% del hierro. Además, Kazajstán es el tercer productor mundial de titanio y el mayor productor de uranio del mundo.

INTERESANTE: El uranio en Kazajstán: Industria atómica (Invest in Kazahstán)

En el siguiente documento (hacer click aquí) el gobierno de Uzbekistán hace una llamada a inversores japoneses para que se adentren en la industria de la minería. El documento (una presentación powerpoint) es toda una publicidad del país, que se ofrece como gran socio comercial y como un lugar perfecto para desarrollar proyectos empresariales.

De la misma forma, Kirguizistán está realizando una reforma de la industria minera y en el año 2012 concedió más de 500 licencias a empresas para explotar sus recursos mineros.

NOTICIA: Kirguizistán promueve la reforma de la industria minera (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Gobierno de España)

Todos estos recursos naturales suponen grandes oportunidades de negocio en Asia Central. La riqueza que ha llegado a países como Kazajstán al convertirse en exportadores de materias primas ha permitido que se desarrollen todo tipo de proyectos punteros y modernos.

También se puede observar el progreso y la modernización en fotos de la ciudad de Astaná, una ciudad que está siendo construida de nuevo, con arquitectura futurista gracias al dinero obtenido por la exportación de gas, petróleo y minerales.

Gracias a este redescubrimiento de Asia Central, han aparecido nuevas empresas que se localizan allí y realizan no sólo tareas de explotación de recursos, sino que se adentran en el sector terciario y algunas han aparecido como empresas de servicios, como la del siguiente caso:

INTERESANTE: La empresa Manuchar se encarga de asistir a los fabricantes de materias primas del Este a comercializar sus productos en Occidente, al mismo tiempo que ayuda a los fabricantes orientales a conseguir los materiales necesarios para poder desarrollar su actividad empresarial. Es una empresa que ofrece servicios desde el principio hasta el final de cada transacción e informa sobre las tendencias de mercado en la zona en cuestión. (web: www.manuchar.com)

Como hemos dicho, los de Asia Central son países que se han dado cuenta de la riqueza que tienen bajo su tierra, y están encantados con el libre comercio y la economía de mercado que predominan en el mundo. Tienen la oportunidad de establecer importantes lazos comerciales y no van a desaprovechar la oportunidad. Como muestra, esta carta redactada por el Ministerio de Petróleo, Gas y Recursos Minerales de Turkmenistán: abrir pdf aquí. Dice textualmente: “The aim of this event is to provide the Asian business community with a better insight into the wealth of investment opportunities available in Turkmenistan’s oil and gas sector, and to both reinforce and establish new business relationships between Turkmenistan and other countries.” Es decir, que el gobierno de Turkmenistán ofrece a empresas de otros países a que acudan a invertir en el sector del petróleo y del gas.

KAZAKHSTAN-ASTANA-AREALFotografía: vista de Astaná, la moderna capital de Kazajstán

Posición geoestratégica en el conjunto de Eurasia

Recogiendo el testigo de la época de la Ruta de la Seda, cuando el Turkestán era una importante zona de paso que comunicaba Europa con China, actualmente Asia Central sigue siendo un punto geoestratégico por su localización en el conjunto del continente euroasiático. Pero no sólo es una cuestión geográfica, sino también económica, ya que Asia Central se redescubrió en el S.XX como una prominente región en cuanto a las materias primas.

Como hemos visto en el anterior subapartado sobre Geografía Económica, bajo el suelo de Asia Central se encuentran millones de metros cúbicos de gas y petróleo, así como innumerables recursos minerales. Pero lo que vamos a analizar ahora es la ventaja de la localización geográfica.

Eduardo Olier, en su libro Geoeconomía: las claves de la economía global (2012), resume el contexto geoestratégico de Asia Central de la siguiente manera:

“En este complejo escenario, las rutas energéticas del área se presentan como un elemento geoeconómico esencial. Primero, hacia el Norte, favoreciendo a Rusia. En segundo lugar, hacia el Oeste, ruta pretendida por Azerbaiyán que favorece los intereses de Estados Unidos, Turquía e, incluso, Georgia, para facilitar el tráfico con Europa. Tercero, la ruta Sur, más viable económicamente que, sin embargo, pone a Irán en el eje estratégico y por lo tanto dificulta los intereses americanos. Cuarto, la ruta Este hacia China, una costosísima infraestructura que sólo en Kazajstán deberá atravesar 2000 kilómetros. Y, finalmente, la posibilidad de atravesar Afganistán por el Sudeste para llegar a Pakistán y la India. Un complejo escenario de intereses geopolíticos que convertirá esta zona en una de las más sensibles del planeta en los próximos años.”

Al ser una zona de paso y que conecta los mundos Occidental y Oriental, Asia Central está repleta de puntos estratégicos. La mayoría de ellos son pasos o corredores entre las montañas, que permiten llegar desde las llanuras de Asia Central hasta países importantes como Pakistán, China o India, donde el desenfrenado crecimiento económico requiere abastecerse de las materias primas que los países de Asia Central les pueden proveer.

Los principales pasos que conectan Asia Central

El Paso de Torugart, en las montañas Tian Shan, une la Provincia de Naryn (Kirguizistán) con la enorme región de Xinjiang, la más grande de China. Es un paso importante porque constituye la ruta principal para conectar los países de Asia Central con China.

Otra localización importante es el Paso de Khunjerab, un alto paso de montaña a 4.700m, en la cordillera del Karakorum, estratégicamente situado en la frontera norte de Pakistán con China. Es el cruce internacional de frontera pavimentada más alto en el mundo, además de ser el punto más alto de la famosa carretera del Karakorum, que une la ciudad de Kashgar (China) con Islamabad (capital pakistaní).

800px-Afghanistan_18El norte de Afghanistán, que también se puede incluir en la región geográfica de Asia Central, es una zona de importancia geoestratégica, ya que este país está, desde 2001, ocupado por tropas estadounidenses y de otros países. Afghanistán es un país en guerra.

Aunque las principales campañas militares se están desarrollando en el sur y en el este del país, controlar los pasos fronterizos del norte es un objetivo estratégico.

En la fotografía de la derecha se puede observar un tanque, símbolo de la presencia militar en la zona, y al fondo la gran cordillera del Hindu Kush, que domina la mitad norte de Afghanistán.

El Corredor de Wakhan es uno de los lugares geoestratégicos más importantes de Asia Central. Situado al noreste de Afghanistán, se encuentra en la Cordillera del Pamir, haciendo frontera con Tayikistán al norte, China al este y Pakistán al sur. Este corredor fue abierto por el Imperio Británico a finales del S.XIX para impedir que Rusia llegara a la India durante el Gran Juego.

También entre Afghanistán y Pakistán se encuentra el importante Paso de Khyber, uno de los pasos más antiguos de la historia, que ya era utilizado en la época de la Ruta de la Seda. Situado en la parte noroeste de las montañas Safēd Kōh, es una ruta comercial entre Asia Central y el Subcontinente Indio, además de una localización militar estratégica.

Geoestrategia energética: petróleo y gas

En el mapa Asia Central: una posición geoestratégica se observa de manera simplificada las cuatro direcciones principales que siguen las exportaciones desde Asia Central. Aunque hay importantes socios comerciales en Europa, el Golfo Pérsico y la India, el mayor receptor de minerales, gas y petróleo está siendo el gigante asiático, China.

Las proyecciones indican que en un futuro más cercano que lejano China consumirá 7 millones de barriles de petróleo al día. Necesitará abastecerse no sólo de Arabia Saudí y de Irán. Asia Central es y será cada vez más un socio exportador para China.

AsiaCentralMapaEn esta región, las reservas de petróleo y gas suelen estar en el entorno del Mar Caspio, de forma que los pequeños Kirguizistán y Tayikistán no se benefician de estos recursos. Desde Asia Central parten varios oleoductos y gasoductos en todas direcciones.

Por ejemplo en 2005 se inauguró un oleoducto de 1000km entre las ciudades de Atasu (Kazajstán) y Alashankou (China).

Otro oleoducto une los campos petrolíferos de Tenguiz (Kazajstán) con el puerto ruso de Novorosslysk, através del Mar Negro.

También existen gasoductos que unen los yacimientos de la costa este del Mar Caspio con el Mar Mediterráneo, a través de Rusia, Azerbaiján y Turquía.

Esto pone de manifiesto que, aunque no tengan salida al mar y estén situados en zonas remotas, los países de Asia Central se mantienen vivos y activos en el mercado internacional de exportaciones debido a las buenas comunicaciones que se han desarrollado gracias a la inversión de países poderosos como China o Rusia, que ayudan a que las materias primas consigan llegar desde Asia Central hasta Europa, la India y China.

MUY INTERESANTE: Las rutas del petróleo en Asia Central (Real Instituto Elcano)

Además del petróleo, el otro recurso que se mueve a través de tuberías por las llanuras de Asia Central, en todas direcciones, es el importantísimo gas natural, muy presente entre los yacimientos que rodean el Mar Caspio.

INTERESANTE: KazMunayGas, empresa kazaka dedicada a la exportación de gas desde Kazajstán hacia Rusia y China principalmente.

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La India también está interesada en Asia Central, tal y como muestra el proyecto Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAP), que supondrá un enorme gasoducto que unirá los yacimientos del Mar Caspio con Pakistán y la India, a través de Turkmenistán y Afghanistán.

TAP-pipeline-3El proyecto TAP podría transportar 30.000 millones de metros cúbicos de gas al año, una cantidad muy importante. Este gas sería utilizado por los superpoblados y emergentes Pakistán e India, dos países que consumen cada vez más recursos.

El gasoducto trans-afghano transportará gas desde el yacimiento de Dauletabad, en Turkmenistán, hasta la ciudad india de Fazilka, en el estado de Punjab (30 millones de habitantes). Un recorrido de casi 1700km.

INTERESANTE: Turkmenistán-Afghanistán-Pakistán-India Gas Pipeline: South Asia’s Key Project

Desde el yacimiento de Dauletabad en Turkmenistán también parten otros importantes gasoductos en otras direcciones, como por ejemplo el Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran Pipeline, inaugurado en 2010, que llega hasta la ciudad de Khangiran, en Irán. Este gasoducto transporta 12.000 millones de metros cúbicos de gas cada año.

En los últimos años, Turkmenistán, poseedor del 8,7% de las reservas de gas del mundo, ha comprometido toda su exportación con tres países: Rusia, China e Irán, lo cual supone una derrota de las potencias occidentales (Estados Unidos y Europa). En la guerra geoestratégica por los recursos, se puede decir que la “batalla de Asia Central” la está ganando el bloque oriental.

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Con China realizando inversiones multimillonarias y con Irán cerrando pactos con países como Turkmenistán, queda por analizar qué movimientos está realizando Rusia.

La empresa rusa Gazprom, líder mundial en la extracción y distribución de gas, no ha tardado en ocupar una posición privilegiada en la zona de Asia Central. Actualmente controla un sistema de gasoductos que van desde Turkmenistán hasta Rusia, pasando por Uzbekistán y Kazajstán.

Esta red de gasoductos controlada por Gazprom se alimenta de los campos de gas del sudeste de Turkmenistán y de los yacimientos de la costa este del Mar Caspio. Además de llegar hasta Rusia, está planeado que los gasoductos lleguen un día hasta China.

MÁS INFORMACIÓN: Central Asia-Center gas pipeline system (Wikipedia)

Los expertos en Asia Central, Marlène Laruelle y Sébastien Peyrouse, resumen la situación de esta manera: “Se trata de países rentistas que funcionan principalmente gracias a la exportación de materias primas (petróleo, gas, algodón, uranio, oro, minerales raros…) y a la importación de productos manufacturados, principalmente de China, pero también de Europa. Situados entre Rusia, China e Irán tienen dificultades para encontrar su lugar en el contexto de la economía mundial, y se ven frenados en su globalización por un entorno geopolítico inestable y una fuerte caída del capital humano.”

MUY INTERESANTE: Asia Central en el contexto de la economía mundial

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Mapa superior: principales gasoductos y oleoductos de la región (fuente: realinstitutoelcano.org)

Las principales potencias mundiales y su relación con Asia Central

EEUU y Europa han extendido la OTAN hacia el este europeo incluyendo antiguas “democracias populares” y repúblicas soviéticas. La expansión hacia el oriente no ha parado ahí y, a partir de 2002, la OTAN ha creado los Planes de Acción de Asociación Individual (Individual Partnership Action Plans) con otras antiguas repúblicas soviéticas como Georgia, Azerbaiján, Armenia, Kazajstán y Moldavia. Por último, en el marco de la invasión de Afganistán, EEUU consiguió establecer bases militares en Kirguizistán y Uzbekistán. El mundo occidental ha movido sus piezas en una zona controlada por la URSS durante la guerra fría. (Fuente: www.historiasiglo20.org)

Como respuesta a estos movimientos de las potencias occidentales, la presencia de China en Asia Central ha aumentado considerablemente en los últimos años, lo cual ha generado ciertos recelos hacia el gigante asiático por parte de Kazajstán y Kirguizistán, que temen sobre sus posibles aspiraciones hegemónicas.

China está extendiendo su influencia económica a lo largo de su frontera de 2.800 kilómetros con Asia Central para compensar la presencia estadounidense y rusa, en una región con enormes reservas minerales y de recursos energéticos, como ya hemos visto.

NOTICIA: China expandirá su presencia en Asia Central con una inversión de $10.000 millones (Reuters)

En Asia Central se han desarrollado importantes organizaciones intergubernamentales, como la Organización de Cooperación de Shangai (OCS), una de las iniciativas de cooperación regional más prometedoras de Asia. Esta organización incluye a China, Rusia, Kirguizistán, Tayikistán y Uzbekistán. Además, otros socios son Pakistán, Irán, Mongolia e India (estos últimos tienen un estatus de observadores).

China lidera la OCS y, por tanto, las cuestiones energéticas y comerciales de la región están muy influenciadas por los intereses chinos. No es de extrañar, pues, que la mayoría de los nuevos oleoductos y gasoductos estén proyectados en dirección este, hacia territorio chino.

Aunque en la declaración fundacional de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghai se afirma que no es una alianza hecha contra otras naciones o regiones, la mayor parte de los analistas coinciden en que uno de los objetivos principales de la OCS es hacer de contrapeso a la OTAN y a EEUU.

INTERESANTE: Página web oficial de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghai

Además de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghai (OCS), otros proyectos intergubernamentales se están poniendo en marcha. Por ejemplo, en 2012 el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de la India habló de que su país iba a comenzar una política de conexión con Asia Central, con el objetivo de reforzar las relaciones políticas y económicas con países como Kazajstán o Turkmenistán, así como apoyar a las tropas internacionales en el conflicto armado de Afghanistán.

Una de las bases para la cooperación entre India y Asia Central tendrá que ver con el intercambio de materias primas por tecnología y equipamientos médicos. La India es un país puntero en los campos de la tecnología y la medicina, y Asia Central, como hemos visto, es una tierra rica en recursos naturales. La cooperación y el entendimiento entre países se apoyará en las necesidades de cada parte, para construir una importante relación comercial y política.

INTERESANTE: La importancia de Asia Central

Presencia militar en la zona de Asia Central

pipelineEstados Unidos tiene bases aéreas desplegadas por toda la región: en Uzbekistán, Kiguizistán, Tayikistán, Pakistán y, cómo no, en Afghanistán. Con Rusia vigilando desde el norte, China apretando desde el Este, e Irán atento en el Sur, la zona que rodea al Mar Caspio se convierte en un tablero de ajedrez en el que cada movimiento genera tensión en el contrincante. Hay muchos recursos en juego.

En la infografía de la derecha podemos ver una clara relación entre yacimientos petrolíferos y presencia militar. Es una zona donde convergen los intereses de las potencias tradicionales (Occidente) y las nuevas potencias emergentes (países asiáticos como India, China, Irán o Pakistán).

VER MAPA: Inestabilidad en Oriente

En Kirguizistán, Estados Unidos tiene la base de Manás, a pocos kilómetros de la capital, Bishkek. Esta base tiene el objetivo geoestratégico de vigilar la inestable zona de Afghanistán.

Por su parte Rusia también quiere mantener su influencia en la zona. Tiene en Kazajistán una base de lanzamientos espaciales en Baikonur, y está construyendo otra base de lanzamiento en Baiterek. También tiene bases en Kirguizistán y en Tayikistán.

Pero tanto Estados Unidos como Rusia están perdiendo esta guerra geoestratégica ante el poder de China, que, mediante la Organización de Shanghai, promueve sus intereses y recorta territorio a sus vecinos Tayikistán y Kirguizistán, obligándoles a firmar nuevos tratados fronterizos. China, con el poder del dinero, ha conseguido lo que Estados Unidos y Rusia no han podido con el poder militar.

NOTICIA: EEUU busca crear su mayor base militar en Asia Central (RT.es)

NOTICIA: Rusia toma medidas para no perder más terreno en Asia Central (elpais.com)

Gustavo Sierra, escribiendo para el diario argentino Clarín, hace este interesante resumen de la situación en Asia Central: (fuente: Clarín.com)

Asia Central fue escenario del “Gran Juego” que practicaron Rusia y Gran Bretaña en el siglo XIX. Ahora, vuelve a ser el terreno de una disputa aún más grande de la que participan no sólo los antiguos contrincantes sino Estados Unidos, China, In dia y las otras grandes potencias europeas.

En el centro de la disputa están las inmensas reservas petroleras y gasíferas de la región. Y para obtener ventaja en “el juego” las potencias aumentan su presencia militar en todo centroasia. En el aeropuerto de Dushanbé, la capital de Tayikistán, se puede ver una escuadrilla de modernos bombarderos franceses. No muy lejos de ahí, los ingenieros indios reconstruyen una enorme pista soviética. Los rusos mantienen aún en ese valle rodeado por las míticas montañas del Panshir una unidad de 10.000 soldados. En la vecina Kirgyzstán, sobrevuelan los KC-135 estadounidenses, los Sukhoi-27 rusos de la base cercana de Kant, y los bombarderos chinos.

Y las repúblicas “stán” (todos sus nombres tienen esa terminación) reciben presiones de todos lados. Kazajstán debe decidir si continúa sacando su petróleo por la red de oleoductos rusa o si se conecta con la nueva línea Baku-Ceyhan, recientemente construida con el apoyo de EE.UU. China compró una de las petroleras más grandes de ese país y construyó un oleoducto de 2.000 kilómetros para transportar el fluido a Beijing.

Claro que la región es un polvorín donde no para de crecer el radicalismo islámico. En particular en el valle de Fergana que cruza las fronteras de Uzbekistán, Tajikistán y Kirgyzstán. Allí es poderoso el movimiento de Hizb ut-Tahrir, que forma parte de Al Qaeda.

Pero las potencias cuando necesitan de algo o alguien no tienen reparos.Y para continuar recibiendo gas y petróleo al tiempo que mantienen a raya al radicalismo islámico, siguen apoyando a los regímenes autoritarios de la zona, desde el tadyico, Imomali Rakhmon, hasta el brutal kazako, Nursultan Nazarbayev. (fuente: Clarín.com)

MUY INTERESANTE: Geopolítica petrolera en Asia Central y en la cuenca del Mar Caspio

Tian_Shan_PanoramaFotografía: panorámica de las montañas Tian-Shan

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Autor y Director de la web 'El Orden Mundial en el S.XXI'. Graduado en Geografía por la Universidad de Zaragoza y Máster en Relaciones Internacionales Seguridad y Desarrollo por la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Inquieto por comprender cómo funciona el mundo y apasionado de la divulgación de conocimiento. Además de blogger, soy un viajero incansable.

lundi, 12 octobre 2015

Threat of Terrorism in Central Asia

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Author: Sofia Pale

Threat of Terrorism in Central Asia

Following the speech of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, which he delivered before the General UN Assembly on September 28, 2015, and the latest developments in Syria it evoked, global mass media engaged in a heated debate over the topic of international terrorism, which is associated these days with the activities of militants of the Islamic State (ISIS). It should be noted that Russia has a well-grounded reason to have concerns over this issue, as it directly involves the integrity of Russia’s eastern border it shares with the post-Soviet states of Central Asia.

Central Asia is a vast region, which includes Afghanistan, Mongolia, the northern regions of Iran, India and Pakistan, the western outreaches of China as well as part of the southern outskirts of Russia and five former Soviet republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Since any upheaval in the post-Soviet region of Central Asia would inevitably affect Russia, it is no surprise that this sub-region is regarded as vital as far as Russian strategic interests are concerned. This is why Russia’s geopolitical rivals (the US and the member countries of NATO, which often benefit from destabilization of the situation in the post-Soviet Central Asia) strive to spread their influence to that region.

According to experts, radical movements in the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia are apparently being funded and managed by some international powers. For example, since the beginning of the 21st century, the authorities of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had to deal with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Today this terrorist group, considered to be one of the most notorious, is seen as a threat to all countries of the Central Asia region. Originally, its objective was to achieve the separation of the Fergana valley from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan and to form an independent Islamic state in its territory. The Fergana valley is a densely populated district with a high unemployment rate, which makes it a perfect “breeding ground” for all sorts of radical organizations and the recruitment of new supporters. If the initial militants’ agenda involved just the establishment of an independent state in the Fergana valley, today they harbor an even more ambitious plan: they want it to become a part of the Islamic Caliphate, which is supposed to include the entire territory of the Middle East and the Caucasus.

In August 2015, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan integrated into ISIS. This organization is proving to be more and more influential in the region and it is continually expanding, taking other smaller militant groups originating from the countries of Central Asia under its wing.

The threat it poses is so intense that on October 1, 2015 Tajikistan’s border patrol guarding the border with Afghanistan was put on full combat alert after Taliban militants, who are members of these terrorist organizations, stormed and seized the city of Kunduz.

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In recent years, there was a noticeable upsurge in the activities of the agents of international terrorist organizations in Kazakhstan. They recruit and train militants. There are militant bases in the territory of the country, where they plot acts of sabotage against neighboring states. Citizens of Kazakhstan participated in the acts of terrorism in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

To add insult to injury, those who come from the former Soviet republics of Central Asia fight in Syria and Iraq in the ranks of ISIS. Outlook for the future is rather grim since the worst consequence of this situation for the countries of Central Asia is that sooner or later militants will return to their home countries, and the chances are high that having gained experience in war, they would engage in terrorist activities at home.

The threat of terrorism in the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia is exacerbated due to the wide support the radical Islamic movements receive from the local population, who are being “brainwashed” through the massive extremist propaganda. In Russia, this situation is perceived as potentially dangerous because propaganda campaigns are also being conducted among the Muslims residing in the Russian territory. According to some sources, a substantial number of militants originating from Central Asia and currently fighting in the ranks of terrorists in the Middle East were recruited in the Russian Federation, while temporary living in its territory as migrant workers. Adverse living conditions, low wages and discontent with the government in their home countries contribute to the recruiters’ success.

Therefore, the worst-case scenario for Russia (in the context of activities of terrorist organizations) would be the flaring up of armed conflicts, which, causing a stream of refugees to cross Russian borders, would put the country’s stability at risk and disrupt the established trade and political relations with its eastern neighbors.

Should that happen, all those, who fear a “strong Russia,” including the US, would be reaping the fruits. Some facts (and there are plenty) suggest that the US and NATO intelligence agencies were involved in the establishment of some of the most aggressive terrorist organizations. Evidently, there are occasions when geopolitical interests of the US require for “the dirty work” to be done by somebody else, and Islamic terrorists are perfect candidates for this role. It happened more than once that the US, striving to spread its influence to some region, would extend its support to the local extremist and terrorist organizations to overthrow the disfavored regime with their hands.

There are grounds to believe that the West is worried about the growing affinity between Russia and China and could potentially use tension in Central Asia to undermine the positions of the two countries and increase own influence in the region. As it has already been mentioned, Russia would be greatly troubled should a military conflict be sparked in the region. It would also hit China, especially, if the Uighur separatists from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China (more than 15 million people live there, out of which 60% are of Turkic origin and practice Islam) would become active. The US and its NATO allies can (should the circumstances be suitable) promote extremism in the region to reinforce their influence and exert pressure on Russia and China.

What differentiates the contemporary approach of the US intelligence services in their dealing with terrorist groups from the methodology they used to apply in the past is that today terrorists are supposed to be liquidated after they complete their task. But the confidence of western intelligence services in that they can keep terrorists under control is profoundly erroneous. As the Russian President pointed out in his speech at the General UN Assembly, “…those, who flirt with terrorists, deal with cruel but not stupid people who also have their own ambitions and know how to implement them. The Islamic State did not come out of a clear blue sky: it was initially nurtured as an instrument against disfavored secular regimes.”

The threat to the global security is also heightened by the fact that even when NATO and the US publicly declare an uncompromising war on terrorism, they still continue pursuing their own geopolitical interests, and this notion was demonstrated in Iraq and Afghanistan.

By now, ISIS has developed into such a powerful force that it would take joint efforts of all countries to counter it.

Speaking before the General Assembly of UN, Vladimir Putin once again appealed to all countries (and, first of all, the countries of the western hemisphere) to put their ambitions aside and join Russia and its partners in their struggle against the common threat. Will the West accept this invitation or not? It is obvious that if the US and the countries of NATO do not reconsider their positions, terrorism will not be eradicated any time soon.

Sofia Pale, Ph.D. Candidate of Historical Sciences, Researcher with the Center for South-East Asia, Australia and Oceania of Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2015/10/10/threat-of-terrorism-in-central-asia/

mardi, 09 juin 2015

Chine: routes de la soie et haute mer

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Chine: routes de la soie et haute mer

Auteur : Pepe Escobar
Traduit par jj, relu par Diane pour le Saker Francophone
Ex: http://zejournal.mobi

La semaine dernière, l’annonce par Pékin de son nouveau livre blanc militaire, qui présente une doctrine dépassant le concept de défense offshore pour aller vers une défense en haute mer, n’a pas manqué d’ébranler les certitudes de plus d’un tenant de l’exceptionnalisme états-unien.

Ce que l’on appelle également le projet de Nouvelle route de la soie – dénomination qui a toutes les connotations romantiques d’un certain âge d’or – ne se limite pas à de nouvelles routes, à des chemins de fer à grande vitesse, à des pipelines et à la fibre optique : c’est également un réseau maritime qui s’étend de l’Extrême-Orient au Moyen-Orient et à l’Europe.

Ainsi, l’expansion chinoise en haute mer, de la mer de Chine méridionale au Pacifique occidental et à l’océan Indien, devait être étroitement liée à la protection de la Route de la soie maritime.

Affaire conclue, c’est parti

À mesure que le réseau One Road, One Belt prend forme malgré sa complexité délirante, pas une semaine ne s’écoule sans que la Chine ne signe un nouveau contrat pour la construction d’un pipeline, d’une centrale électrique, d’un réseau de fibre optique ou encore d’une usine en vue d’accélérer l’intégration eurasienne – du Pakistan aux Stans d’Asie Centrale, en passant par tout ce qui relie, par le rail ou la route, la Chine occidentale à la mer d’Arabie et aux installations portuaires de la Corne de l’Afrique.

La logique commerciale qui sous-tend ce déferlement de contrats d’infrastructure est solide : il s’agit d’absorber l’énorme excédent de la capacité industrielle chinoise. Bien entendu, ce processus est étroitement lié à la stratégie énergétique complexe de Pékin, dont le leitmotiv est principalement d’échapper à Malacca 1

La coopération étroite de membres des BRICS tels que la Chine et l’Inde sera absolument décisive pour le succès de l’intégration eurasiatique. Ce processus est déjà en marche avec la banque des BRICS – la Nouvelle banque de développement – qui aura son siège à Shanghai et sera dirigée par un banquier indien. Ce n’est pas un hasard si l’Inde fait également partie des membres fondateurs de la BAII.

Le premier président de la BAII sera Jin Liqun, ancien vice-ministre des Finances et vice-président de l’Asian Development Bank (ADB), dont la direction est nippo-américaine. Les allégations des suspects habituels selon lesquelles la BAII sera une sorte de société secrète chinoise ne tiennent pas debout. Le conseil d’administration sera constitué de représentants de plusieurs puissances mondiales développées et en développement.

La BAII s’annonce déjà comme incontournable dans toute l’Eurasie. Il n’est pas surprenant que les Japonais, se sentant exclus, aient été contraints de relever la barre et d’annoncer l’intention de Tokyo de s’engager à hauteur de pas moins de 110 milliards de dollars dans le financement de projets d’infrastructures d’ici 2020. Le grand sujet de conversation du moment dans toute l’Asie est la guerre des infrastructures.

L’appel de l’Ouest

Il ne faut pas oublier que ce que j’ai appelé le Go West Young Han de l’expansion de l’influence commerciale de la Chine a en fait commencé dès 1999. La première étape s’est traduite par une vague de délocalisation d’usines de la province du Guangdong vers les provinces de l’intérieur. Au bout de quelques années, dans le Triangle du Guangdong – aujourd’hui beaucoup plus riche que bien des pays industriels –, des entrepreneurs soucieux du cycle de vie des produits se sont lancés dans une accélération technologique frénétique. Dans la mégalopole de Shenzhen, les autorités vont d’ailleurs jusqu’à repousser les entreprises moins axées sur la technologie vers la périphérie de la ville.

Dans le domaine des ports de marchandises, sur les dix plus grands ports du monde, pas moins de sept sont en Chine. À lui seul, ce chiffre est révélateur de la domination écrasante de la Chine dans le commerce maritime mondial.

En termes de gestion, le plan 125 – c’est-à-dire le 12e plan quinquennal chinois – expire en 2015. En Occident, peu de gens savent que les objectifs des sept domaines technologiques où la Chine voulait dominer ont été atteints et même, dans certains cas, dépassés. Le grand bond en avant technologique explique pourquoi la Chine est aujourd’hui capable de construire des réseaux d’infrastructures, chose qui semblait auparavant impossible.

Le prochain plan quinquennal s’annonce encore plus ambitieux. Il sera axé, entre autres conséquences de la restructuration du modèle économique de la Chine, sur le lancement par Pékin d’une vague de construction de nouvelles mégalopoles.

The China Dream, qui vient d’être publié par le professeur Liu Mingfu, un spécialiste de premier plan des questions militaires, donne une idée d’ensemble au moment de la montée en puissance de la Chine dans le domaine des infrastructures en Eurasie. Un clash avec les États-Unis semble désormais inévitable.

Les murmures de mécontentement incessants du Pentagone au sujet de la mer de Chine méridionale ne sont que la partie visible de l’iceberg (mortel), mer que Washington considère finalement comme un Grand Lac américain.

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Liu Mingfu, à l’instar d’autres grands analystes chinois, souhaiterait que Washington finisse par trouver un modus vivendi avec la superpuissance mondiale émergente, un peu comme l’Empire britannique a transféré sa domination maritime mondiale aux États-Unis au début du XXe siècle.

Cela n’arrivera pas. Dans l’immédiat, selon la doctrine du pivot vers l’Asie de l’administration Obama annoncé en 2011 par le Pentagone, l’endiguement sera musclé. Toutefois, cela ne marchera que si l’Inde, membre des BRICS, est entièrement solidaire. Et c’est assez peu probable.

En attendant, Washington va continuer d’être submergé de ce type d’analyse paranoïde d’un ancien conseiller stratégique du haut commandement US/OTAN en Afghanistan.

Pendant ce temps sur la Terre…

Ce qu’il faut retenir, et ce qu’a déjà fait une écrasante majorité des pays du Sud, c’est que la stratégie One Road, One Belt de la Chine vise avant tout à établir des relations commerciales équitables. Cette politique la situe à des années-lumière de ce que fait l’Empire avec ses bases militaires et sa sempiternelle guerre bushienne contre le terrorisme, ses infernales listes d’assassinats illégaux et ses bombardements de pays récalcitrants (généralement des républiques arabes séculaires) en vue de leur faire avaler la démocratie à leur sauce.

Le projet One Road, One Belt, immensément ambitieux, couplé à la protection par la marine chinoise des intérêts nationaux en haute mer, s’inscrit en droite ligne dans le plan directeur du Rêve chinois du président Xi Jinping. La meilleure manière de bâtir une société modérément prospère est de construire des infrastructures modernes à l’intérieur du pays avant de se tourner vers l’extérieur et le monde.

Une fois encore, la Chine exportera l’énorme excédent de sa capacité industrielle, poursuivra la diversification de ses sources d’approvisionnement en énergie et étendra son influence commerciale de l’Asie centrale à l’Europe en passant par l’Iran, la Turquie et la Grèce.

La Chine a les moyens financiers de résoudre l’un des problèmes les plus insolubles de l’Inde, à savoir la reconstruction de son infrastructure sclérosée. Dans l’idéal, ces deux membres des BRICS sont appelés à signer contrat sur contrat (d’infrastructure) aux côtés d’un autre membre, la Russie, et d’un Iran qui a regagné la confiance de l’Occident. Cela implique que tout ce qui a trait à la ou aux nouvelles Routes de la soie touche directement pas moins d’un tiers de la population mondiale. Zone d’influence, dites-vous ?

À Washington, on a beaucoup grondé que personne n’a droit à une zone d’influence – en dehors des États-Unis, bien entendu. Pourtant, les efforts économiques, financiers, diplomatiques et géopolitiques de Pékin en vue d’unifier l’Eurasie représentent la surenchère suprême dans l’exercice d’une influence mondiale. Finalement, la tactique habituelle inspirée des Romains, Divide et impera, appliquée par l’Occident, pourrait bien se révéler inopérante.

Notes du traducteur :

(1)Le détroit de Malacca est un passage obligé du trafic pétrolier vers tous les pays d’Extrême-Orient. Il est sous l’étroit contrôle de l’US Navy pour se procurer un maximum de pétrole et de gaz en contournant les eaux où patrouille la marine US.

Sa ruée vers l’Ouest, conséquence naturelle d’une politique officielle lancée en 1999 mais, à l’époque, limitée principalement au Xinjiang, conduit Pékin à s’ouvrir de plus en plus sur le monde. Pour s’en convaincre, il suffit de voir le nombre de pays orientaux et occidentaux qui ont intégré la Banque asiatique d’investissement pour les infrastructures (BAII).

jeudi, 14 mai 2015

What’s Washington Doin’ in Central Asia Now?

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F. William Engdahl:

What’s Washington Doin’ in Central Asia Now?

Ex: http://journal-neo.org

Since the time the CIA financed and trained mone than one hundred thousand Mujahideen Islamic Jihadists, including a fanatical Saudi named Osama bin Laden, to wage a decade-long proxy war against forces of the Soviet Army in Afghanistan, Washington has been obsessed with the idea of penetrating deep into Central Asia in order to drive a wedge between China and Russia.

Early attempts in the wake of the post-2001 US forces’ presence in Afghanistan met with mixed success. Now it appears that Washington is frantically trying a repeat, even calling the ageing US Ambassador Richard M. Miles out of retirement to head a new try at a Color Revolution.

There seems to be a sense of urgency to Washington’s new focus on Central Asia. Russia is hardly buckling under from US and EU financial sanctions; rather she is looking more vibrant than ever, making strategic economic and military deals seemingly everywhere. And Russia’s Eurasian neighbor, The Peoples’ Republic of China, is laying plans to build energy pipelines and high speed rail links with Russia across Eurasia.

Washington appears now to be responding.

The problem with the Washington neoconservatives is that they aren’t very creative, in fact, in terms of understanding the larger consequences of their specific actions, they are rather stupid. And their shenanigens have become very well-known, not only in Moscow, but also in Uzbekistan, Kyrgystan and other Central Asian republics formerly part of the Soviet Union.

The Coming Eurasia Economic Boom

Central Asian republics, most especially Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, are strategically located between China, Kazakhstan and Russia. They are also in the midst of the developing economic boom region that will follow China’s New Silk Road high-speed railway networks. Those rail networks will create a highly efficient land route, independent of possible US sea lane interference, to facilitate the rapidly-growing trade across Eurasia and potentially, if the hapless EU ever gets the courage to buck Washington, to Europe as well.

China recently made headlines with the establishment of its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a clear rival to the IMF and the US-controlled Asian Development Bank, when the UK, Germany, France and most every major nation—with exception of the USA, Canada, Mexico and Japan—rushed to be founding members and to get in on what promises to be the global economic locomotive for at least the next half century or more, if done right. The AIIB was founded by Beijing with its initial contribution of $50 billion, to partly finance the New Silk Road.

Recently Beijing also revived an earlier plan to build a rail link from China’s Xinjiang Province in far western to Uzbekistan across the territory of northern Kyrgyzstan. Their initial plans were derailed in 2005 when an earlier US-instigated Color Revolution made Kyrgyzstan too unstable.

On January 21, 2015 Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev announced that his government was sending a delegation to Beijing to finalize details of the project launch.It will be a $2 billion 270 km-long rail link from Kashgar in the Xinjiang region of western China to Andijan in eastern Uzbekistan via Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn and Osh oblasts.

In a recent memo on the development, the UK Foreign Office notes that the rail project would have significant benefits for especially Uzbekistan and for China as well as advancing the overall Eurasian New Silk Road rail projects. They note that for China, it would create an additional land-based route through Central Asia for its exports to European markets, assuming it would connect into the existing Uzbek and Turkmen rail network running to the Caspian Sea. It would also improve Chinese access to gold, coal and other mineral deposits within Kyrgyzstan, a largely economically forgotten state since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and Kyrgyzstan’s declaration of an independent republic.

For Uzbekistan, the Foreign Office memo notes that it would offer a new rail route for trade with Asia-Pacific markets. This would be especially important for the GM-UzDaewoo car assembly plant located in the Andijan region, which relies on regular imports of parts and components from South Korea. For Kyrgyzstan, it would offer the potential to earn transit fees of up to $200 million per year, by some estimates, in addition to creating up to 20,000 construction jobs during the implementation phase. As well there are the potential gains for opening Kyrgyzstan to significant Chinese mining investment, something the Kyrgyz economy sorely needs.

And in another geopolitical Eurasian economic advance, on April 9, Pakistan announced that, once US Iran sanctions are lifted, it will proceed with long-stalled construction of a $7.5 billion Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline that would pass through Pakistan’s port of Gwadar to the city of Nawabshah in southeastern Pakistan providing a desperately needed equivalent of 4500 Megawatts of electricity.

In 2014 Washington sabotaged the project by essentially bribing the financially-strapped Pakistan government with $1.5 billion in Saudi money if she were to abandon the project. Washington threatened Pakistan with penalties were they to violate US economic sanctions on Iran. Washington, like Wall Street, prefers to use other peoples’ money to advance their agenda. A year later, the Saudi money spent, Pakistan has announced the pipeline project will now go ahead. Pakistan has quietly secured a $2 billion loan from… China. The Pakistan segment of the pipeline will be 485 miles, funded by a Chinese loan and construction would be undertaken by China’s CNPC state energy company. Iran has already completed its 560-mile segment of the pipeline.

Washington Scrambles to Sabotage

With the explosion of trans-national Eurasian economic linkages, rail and pipeline, Washington has realized it must react if they are not to be outflanked by the states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization—Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan.

Not only that, also in January 2015 Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia launched their Eurasian Economic Union with Kyrgyzstan planning to join. That’s the same economic union which Ukraine’s democratically-elected President Viktor Yanukovich opted to join rather than accept the paltry proposal of an EU Associate Membership status. Washington’s Assistant Secretary of State Viktoria Nuland and the usual gaggle of neoconservative warhawks launched the Maidan Square Twitter protests and the February 2014 coup d’etat partly to block that Ukraine move.

So it’s worth noting that in late March 2015, the Kyrgyz newspaper Delo No, reported that a mysterious Ukrainian aircraft delivered 150 tons of cargo with the status of “diplomatic mail” to the US Embassy in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek late last month. The status diplomatic mail meant it could not be inspected by Kyrgyz customs police. Apparently the US Embassy staff in Bishkek are furious letter writers.

The paper reported that the cargo was delivered during two separate flights by an AN-124 transport jet of the Ukrainian air carrier Antonov Avialinii between March 28 and March 30, and each time the plane was en route from the UAE capital Abu Dhabi to the Manas international airport. Hmmm.

It’s worth noting that in November 2013, the US Embassy in Kiev also received “diplomatic cargos” that were delivered by US Air Force transport aircraft. Former Ukrainian Security Service chief Alexander Yakimenko was quoted by Russia’s Vesti.ru news network as saying that the Kiev cargos included boxes with 60 million dollars in small bills that were distributed to protesters at Kiev’s Maidan Square during anti-government riots in late 2013—Victoria Nuland’s idea of democracy. Until April 2014 the US Government had maintained a strategic airbase at Manas in Kyrgyzstan totally immune from Kyrgyz inspection. Reports were rampant at the time that US military cargo laden with Afghan heroin landed there en route to Russia and the EU.

In November, 2014 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) head, Nikolay Bordyuzha, accused the West of attempting to destabilize CSTO countries. The Collective Security Treaty Organization is a security alliance of former Soviet states, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan to cooperate in strategic issues amongst the member states.

Bordyuzha charged that activities of “NGO’s financed by Western Agents” have increased in the region. Bordyuzha accused the West of destabilizing the situation in the CSTO countries. As proof he cited a “disproportionate increase in the number of officials in Western embassies, especially those of the US as well as the activation of the work of the many NGOs financed by Western grants.” He noted that just before the launch of Washington’s Kiev coup d’etat, the number of US Embassy personnel in Kiev exploded to a staggering 1,500, that for a country whose only interest to Washington is to drive a wedge between Russia, China and the EU.

Then on February 5 this year, the US State Department announced that it had hauled out 78-year-old retired Color Revolution maker, Richard M. Miles, as “Charge d’Affaires ad Interim” at the US Embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Miles was the point person behind the CIA “Rose Revolution” that fraudulently installed Washington’s hand-picked Mikhail Saakashvili as President of the Republic of Georgia as well as similar dirty operations in the 1990’s in Azerbaijan where BP and the US oil companies wanted to build an oil pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan via Georgia to avoid the existing Russian oil line running through Chechnya.

The appointment of Miles came at the same time US State Department Assistant Secretary, Victoria Nuland, the neoconservative former Dick Cheney assistant and ex NATO Ambassador who was key point person for the Kiev coup of 2014, travelled to the Southern Caucasus to visit the governments of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Washington clearly aims to wreak havoc in the form of Color Revolutions across Central Asia, in order to sabotage the rapidly-developing Eurasian economic developments. Kyrgyzstan is especially strategic to that aim as chaos there immediately threatens China, Russia and Kazakhstan economic cooperation.

We can expect a new wave of Washington-orchestrated Color Revolutions across Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia. It will likely also include Baluchistan in Pakistan where radical Jihadists, backed by the CIA, are being prepared to sabotage the Iran-Pakistan-China gas pipeline that passes through Baluchistan as well. It’s all a bit tiresome, but a Superpower in decay is not generally the most creative.

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2015/05/05/what-s-washington-doin-in-central-asia-now/

dimanche, 10 mai 2015

Zentralasien – Die neue Zielscheibe für die USA

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Zentralasien – Die neue Zielscheibe für die USA

F. William Engdahl

Seit der Zeit, als die CIA mehr als 100 Mudschahedin, islamische Gotteskrieger – unter ihnen ein fanatischer Saudi namens Osama bin Laden – für einen zehn Jahre währenden Stellvertreterkrieg gegen Einheiten der Sowjetarmee in Afghanistan bezahlte und ausbildete, ist Washington von der Idee besessen, weit nach Zentralasien vorzudringen, um einen Keil zwischen China und Russland zu treiben.

Ersten Versuchen während der Anwesenheit amerikanischer Truppen in Afghanistan nach dem 11. September 2001 war nur mäßiger Erfolg beschieden. Jetzt will es Washington offenbar erneut versuchen. US-Botschafter Richard M. Miles wurde sogar aus dem Ruhestand zurückgerufen, um eine neue Farbenrevolution in die Wege zu leiten.

Washington fühlt sich offenbar zu der neuen Konzentration auf Zentralasien gedrängt. Denn weit davon entfernt, sich den finanziellen Sanktionen der USA und der EU zu beugen, wirkt Russland dynamischer denn je und schließt allerorten strategisch wichtige Verträge über wirtschaftliche und militärische Zusammenarbeit ab. Und Russlands eurasischer Nachbar, die Volksrepublik China, präsentiert Pläne für den Bau von Öl- und Gaspipelines und Hochgeschwindigkeits-Eisenbahnverbindungen quer über den eurasischen Kontinent bis nach Russland. Darauf scheint Washington nun zu reagieren.

Das Problem der Neokonservativen in Washington liegt in ihrer mangelnden Kreativität, die Folgen ihres Vorgehens zu verstehen, genauer gesagt: Sie sind reichlich dumm. Und ihre Tricks sind inzwischen allgemein bekannt, nicht nur in Moskau, sondern auch in Usbekistan, Kirgistan und anderen ehemaligen zentralasiatischen Teilrepubliken der Sowjetunion.

Der kommende Wirtschaftsboom in Zentralasien

Die zentralasiatischen Republiken, insbesondere Kirgistan und Usbekistan, liegen strategisch wichtig zwischen China, Kasachstan und Russland. Das bedeutet: Sie liegen im Zentrum des zukünftigen Wirtschaftsbooms, der mit Chinas neuem Hochgeschwindigkeits-Eisenbahnnetz der Neuen Seidenstraße kommen wird. Durch diese Eisenbahnverbindungen entsteht eine hocheffiziente Überlandverbindung, die auch bei möglichen Unterbrechungen des Seeweges durch die USA offenstehen und in ganz Eurasien rapide wachsenden Handel ermöglichen –potenziell auch den Handel mit Europa, wenn die EU jemals den Mut aufbringt, sich Washington zu widersetzen.

Weiterlesen:

http://info.kopp-verlag.de/hintergruende/geostrategie/f-william-engdahl/zentralasien-die-neue-zielscheibe-fuer-die-usa.html

Sancties tegen Rusland treffen centraal Azië hard

caucase_asie_centr.jpg

Door: Henk Jurgens

Ex: http://www.doorbraak.be

Sancties tegen Rusland treffen centraal Azië hard

De Centraal-Aziatische republieken lijden zwaar onder het Europees embargo van Russische producten.

In Rusland werken miljoenen gastarbeiders uit de voormalige Sovjetrepublieken. Velen van hen zijn er illegaal. Allen sturen ze geld naar hun families thuis, veel geld. Volgens de Wereldbank hangt 21% van de Armeense economie, 31,5% van de economie van Kirgizië, 42% van de Tadzjiekse en 12% van de Oezbeekse economie af van deze geldzendingen. Veel van de arme gezinnen op het platteland zijn hiervan volledig afhankelijk.

Volgens The Guardian werken er 2,4 miljoen Oezbeken in Rusland. Zes tot zevenhonderdduizend zijn legaal, de anderen leven zonder geldige papieren. Oezbekistan heeft ongeveer 29 miljoen inwoners. The Moscow Times berichtte dat er in 2014 meer dan 200 000 illegale Tadzjieken door de Russen de grens zijn overgezet. Er wordt geschat dat er nog ruim een miljoen Tadzjieken in Rusland leven. Tadzjikistan heeft acht miljoen inwoners.

De exacte cijfers over de gastarbeiders zijn onbekend. Zoals overal op de wereld doen ook de gastarbeiders het werk dat de autochtonen niet willen doen. En nu het economisch slechter gaat als gevolg van de lage olieprijs en de sancties verdringen de Russen de gastarbeiders weer uit hun slecht betaald, ongeschoold werk. In het eerste kwartaal van 2015 is de Russische economie al met 2% gekrompen. De centrale bank van Rusland voorziet voor het jaar 2015 een economische krimp van 4%. Begin dit jaar heeft de Russische regering wetgeving afgekondigd waardoor het moeilijker wordt voor gastarbeiders van buiten de EEU om een verblijfsvergunning te krijgen. De EEU, de Euraziatische Economische Unie, is door Rusland opgericht om een vrijhandelszone tussen de voormalige Sovjetrepublieken, vergelijkbaar met die van de EU, te krijgen. Kazachstan, Wit-Rusland, Armenië en Kirgizië zijn lid, Oezbekistan en Tadzjikistan niet. Immigranten van buiten de EEU moeten voor ze een verblijfsvergunning krijgen eerst inburgeringcursussen volgen en examens afleggen in de Russische taal en de Russische geschiedenis. Verder betalen ze drie keer zoveel voor een werkvergunning in Moskou dan immigranten uit de EEU. In 2010 werkten 72% van de Tadzjiekse gastarbeiders in Moskou.


Als gevolg van de sancties tegen Rusland en de lage olieprijs is de Russische roebel gedevalueerd. Het naar huis gestuurde geld is daardoor minder waard. Niet alleen is er voor de gastarbeiders minder werk, hun inkomen daalde ook dramatisch. De Wereldbank verwacht dat ze in 2015 voor 10 miljard USD minder naar huis kunnen sturen. Volgens The Economist overweegt een kwart van de gastarbeiders om weer naar huis te gaan, maar thuis is er geen werk. De vrees voor sociale onrust als gevolg van werkloosheid en armoede is bij de politieke elite van de thuislanden groot.

Een land als Tadzjikistan staat onder grote politieke druk vanuit Moskou om lid van de EEU te worden. Door de devaluaties van de roebel is de somoni, de Tadzjiekse munt, ten opzichte van de roebel 35% meer waard geworden. De export naar Rusland staat daardoor onder grote druk.
Ook Oezbekistan overweegt, volgens The Diplomat, zich bij de EEU aan te sluiten. Het land was een belangrijke partner voor de Verenigde Staten tijdens hun oorlog in Afghanistan maar nu Amerika zich uit Afghanistan terug trekt vervalt de noodzaak hun bevoorrading via Oezbekistan te laten lopen.


Kirgizië is inmiddels tot de EEU toegetreden. Het is een klein, arm land met 5,5 miljoen inwoners. Volgens The Diplomat controleert Rusland de economie van Kirgizistan. Buiten de Vallei van Fergana, de vallei tussen Kirgizië, Oezbekistan en Tadzjikistan, met zijn vruchtbare landbouwgronden is er weinig economische activiteit. Alleen de toeristenindustrie is een beetje in opkomst zoals ik tijdens mijn verjaardag in 2009 in Bishkek, de hoofdstad, heb mogen ervaren.

Net als in Turkmenistan en Oezbekistan hangt ook de export van de Kazachse olie en gas af van Russische pijpleidingen. Kazachstan heeft nauwe economische banden met Rusland. In 2013 bedroeg de Russische export naar Kazachstan 17,7 miljard USD en de Kazachse export naar Rusland $5,8 miljard. Afgelopen jaar is de handel met Rusland echter met 20% afgenomen. Het land heeft vooral veel last van goedkope Russische producten die de markt overspoelen. In februari vroegen ondernemers de regering de import van een aantal Russische producten, waaronder auto's, voedsel en fruit drastisch te beperken. Goedkope Russische producten verdringen de Kazachse. De Tenge, de Kazachse munt, is het afgelopen jaar met 20% ten opzichte van de US dollar gedevalueerd maar de roebel devalueerde nog veel meer. Een roebel was in juni 2014 nog 5,44 tenge waard, begin 2015 was dit gedaald tot 3 tenge.

Het Amerikaanse ratingbureau Standard & Poor verwacht dat het bruto nationaal product van Kazachstan in 2015 met 1,5% zal dalen. Dit komt voornamelijk door de lage olieprijzen. Ruim 20% van het bnp en ruim 60% van de export komt voor rekening van de olie- en gasindustrie. De Kazachse begroting gaat uit van een olieprijs van 80 USD per vat. Op het ogenblik ligt dit rond de $60. Het land zit dan ook door de sancties tegen Rusland en de lage olie- en gasprijs op de wereldmarkt in grote economische problemen. Het is dan ook geen wonder dat president Nazarbaev samen met Lukashenko, de president van Wit-Rusland, er alles aan doet om de burgeroorlog in de Oekraïne te beëindigen en daardoor de sancties tegen Rusland te laten opheffen. Afgelopen december sloot hij een contract met Kiev om Kazachse steenkool aan Oekraïne te gaan leveren. Ook de Minsk-akkoorden die min of meer tot een staakt-het-vuren in Oost Oekraïne hebben geleid zijn na bemiddeling van de beide presidenten tot stand gekomen.

Er zijn berichten dat ook ambassadeurs van de Europese Unie met Russische parlementariërs gaan praten over een mogelijke beëindiging van de sancties. Om de burgeroorlog in de Oekraïne definitief te beëindigen is een dialoog met Rusland noodzakelijk. Ook de NAVO-top die jarenlang in het geheim met de Russische militairen in gesprek was moet weer met de Russen gaan praten. Het is onverantwoord dat deze discussies zijn stil gevallen.
Natuurlijk moeten de Russen zich uiteindelijk uit Oost-Oekraïne terug trekken, maar dat geldt ook voor de ruim duizend Amerikaanse trainers en waarnemers die het leger van Kiev 'adviseren'.


Voor de arme gezinnen op het platteland van Centraal-Azië is beëindiging van de sancties tegen Rusland op kort termijn noodzakelijk.

 

Nazarbaev rieletto Presidente del Kazakhstan: significato e reinterpretazioni

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Nazarbaev rieletto Presidente del Kazakhstan: significato e reinterpretazioni

Dal nostro corrispondente ad Astana Dario Citati, Direttore del Programma “Eurasia” dell’IsAG

Ex: http://www.geopolitica-rivista.org


Le quinte elezioni presidenziali nella storia del Kazakhstan indipendente, tenutesi domenica 26 aprile 2015, si sono concluse con l’ampiamente prevista vittoria del Presidente uscente Nursultan Nazarbaev, che guida lo Stato centroasiatico dal 1991, anno in cui il Paese ottenne la piena sovranità dopo la dissoluzione dell’Unione Sovietica. Il verdetto delle urne è risultato un autentico plebiscito, con il 97,7% delle preferenze che hanno premiato Nazarbaev. I due avversari, il candidato “verde” Abelgazi Kussainov e Tunguz Syzdykov del Partito Comunista del Popolo, hanno raccolto rispettivamente l’1,6% e lo 0,7%.

Prima ancora delle valutazioni sul significato di tali percentuali – cioè nei briefing e nelle conferenze stampa tenutesi nella giornata del voto quando non si conoscevano i risultati definitivi – molti degli osservatori internazionali hanno tenuto a sottolineare la piena regolarità procedurale del voto. Per l’Italia erano presenti, in qualità di osservatori OSCE, il Sen. Sergio Divina e l’On. Riccardo Migliori, Presidente emerito dell’Assemblea Interparlamentare OSCE. Entrambi hanno affermato che le operazioni di voto si sono svolte con trasparenza, in un clima di elevata partecipazione ai seggi e quasi di “festa nazionale”. Il Segretario Generale dell’Organizzazione per la Cooperazione di Shangai, Sergej Mezencev, ha parimenti confermato la regolarità delle operazioni di voto in tutti i seggi visitati.

Per quanto attiene invece al significato politico della tornata elettorale, nonché al livello di democratizzazione del Paese, altri osservatori indipendenti hanno fornito elementi importanti di valutazione. Secondo Richard Weitz dello Hudson Institute di Washington, ad esempio, “le elezioni del 2015 confermano che in Kazakhstan gli istituti di rappresentanza si sviluppano positivamente”. Per comprendere l’enorme divario di percentuali tra il vincitore e gli sconfitti, ha quindi sostenuto che “la qualità intrinseca delle elezioni non può essere valutata in base ai criteri europeo-occidentali, perché simili paragoni indurrebbero a un giudizio sbagliato sugli sforzi del Paese nell’implementazione delle proprie riforme: queste ultime vanno invece valutate alla luce dell’eredità storica del Kazakhstan, nonché del suo livello di sviluppo sociale”.

Anche un altro osservatore occidentale, Daniel Witt, ha affermato che “il giudizio sulla qualità democratica delle elezioni non si può basare solo sulla descrizione di un singolo evento”, in quanto “gli appuntamenti elettorali sono un processo continuo di perfezionamento, da condurre attraverso la comparazione tra le elezioni di oggi e quelle del passato, per verificare il progresso raggiunto a ogni tornata elettorale”.

In base a questi giudizi si può affermare che il senso politico di queste elezioni presidenziali del 2015 sta soprattutto in un test di fiducia della popolazione verso lo stesso Nursultan Nazarbaev, l’uomo che incarna il destino stesso del Kazakhstan indipendente. Un test che avviene peraltro in un momento delicato di transizione, segnato da uno scenario geopolitico molto teso su cui influiscono la stessa crisi ucraina e le sanzioni in Russia che hanno avuto ripercussioni anche sul mercato kazako. D’altra parte, queste elezioni presidenziali avrebbero dovuto tenersi nel 2016, ma sono state anticipate al 2015 sia per evitare la sovrapposizione con le elezioni parlamentari, sia per consentire una programmazione più sistematica per iniziative di grande rilievo nel futuro prossimo come l’Expo2017.

Si è soliti affermare che per un Paese come il Kazakhstan, ventiquattro anni dopo l’ottenimento dell’indipendenza, la stabilità e la garanzia di uno sviluppo pacifico sono ancora oggi più importanti di una concezione della democrazia all’occidentale, segnata cioè dal multipartitismo e dall’assenza di una figura personale carismatica. Ciò è senz’altro plausibile: al momento dello scioglimento dell’URSS, il Kazakhstan era considerato fra i Paesi più a rischio implosione e caos. Il suo percorso di stabilizzazione interna, nonché l’apertura alle organizzazioni e alla cooperazione internazionale sono in genere unanimemente riconosciuti come positivi, se valutati in base alle condizioni di partenza, e restano un elemento imprescindibile per comprendere le ragioni di un consenso così vasto per Nazarbaev.

Ma c’è un fattore non meno rilevante per collocare in un’ottica più vasta il senso di queste elezioni. Forse più di qualsiasi altro Paese ex sovietico, il Kazakhstan è riuscito a diminuire significativamente la presenza nello Stato nell’economia e a favorire la libertà d’impresa privata (a livello di piccola e media imprenditoria e senza liberalizzazioni “traumatiche”), spesso in tempi rapidissimi. Vale la pena ricordare che solo tra il 2012 e il 2013 esso è passato dal 71° al 51° posto tra i Paesi a maggiore competitività economica nell’annuale classifica mondiale stilata dal World Economic Forum e ancora oggi è indicizzato come un Paese estremamente conveniente per esportazioni e investimenti.

È ben noto quanto, nelle società contemporanee, la concorrenza economica e la libertà d’impresa siano strettamente legate allo sviluppo della democrazia e della competizione politica. La modernizzazione di questa repubblica centroasiatica è cominciata soprattutto a partire dalla graduale concessione delle libertà economiche dopo settant’anni di monopolio di Stato. La riconferma di Nazarbaev può essere letta quindi anche come un riconoscimento per l’aumento di tali libertà, a cui la generazione nata e cresciuta nel Kazakhstan indipendente dovrà far seguire un consequenziale sviluppo politico e civile.

dimanche, 19 avril 2015

Quand la Nouvelle Route de la Soie rencontre l'Union eurasienne

Quand la Nouvelle Route de la Soie rencontre l'Union eurasienne

Auteur : Pepe Escobar
Ex: http://zejournal.mobi

Tous les rêves des exceptionnalistes qui prient pour que la Russie et la Chine abandonnent leur solide partenariat stratégique gagnant-gagnant, entièrement conçu pour leurs intérêts nationaux communs, ont été dissipés par la visite cruciale à Moscou du ministre chinois des Affaires étrangères Wang Yi.

poutine_Wang_Yi_moscou.jpgA Moscou, Wang a souligné à la fois la politique Look East de la Russie et celle de la Chine Go West – qui englobent essentiellement l'immense projet de Nouvelles Routes de la Soie – disant que ce projet « a créé des opportunités historiques pour l'amarrage des stratégies de développement des deux pays. »

Ils sont entièrement en phase. Look East, la stratégie de la Russie, ne concerne pas seulement la Chine, mais au moins autant l'intégration eurasienne que les routes de la soie de la Chine Nouvelle, car Moscou en a besoin pour développer la Sibérie orientale et l'Extrême-Orient russe.

Le partenariat stratégique, en perpétuelle évolution n'englobe pas seulement l'énergie, y compris la possibilité d'investissements chinois dans des projets cruciaux de pétrole et de gaz russes, mais aussi l'industrie de la défense ; il est de plus en plus question d'investissement, de banque, de finance et de haute technologie.

La portée du partenariat est extrêmement large, de la coopération Russie-Chine au sein de l'Organisation de coopération de Shanghai (OCS) au rôle de la Russie et de la Chine dans la nouvelle banque de développement BRICS, et du soutien de la Russie à l'infrastructure chinoise dirigée par la Banque asiatique d'investissement (AIIB) et la Fondation de la Route de la Soie.

Pékin et Moscou, avec les autres nations du BRICS, se dirigent rapidement vers un commerce débarrassé du rôle du dollar US, en utilisant leurs propres monnaies. En parallèle, ils étudient la création d'un système SWIFT de remplacement – qui sera nécessairement rejoint par les pays de l'UE, comme ils se joignent à l'AIIB ; car si en théorie l'Allemagne pourrait se permettre de perdre son commerce avec la Russie en raison de la politique de sanctions de Berlin – au grand mécontentement des industriels allemands –, elle ne peut tout simplement pas se passer de l'énergie russe. Et pour l'Allemagne, perdre le commerce avec la Chine est totalement impensable.

Le Trans-Siberian boosté aux stéroïdes

Deux jours après sa visite à Moscou, Wang est allé jusqu'à rencontrer le ministre des Affaires étrangères de Mongolie Lundeg Purevsuren, soulignant que la Nouvelle Route de la Soie développera une nouvelle plate-forme, un corridor économique trilatéral reliant la Russie, la Chine et la Mongolie.

Ce à quoi Wang faisait allusion est le corridor de transport eurasien prévu – qui mettra en vedette, un chemin de fer flambant neuf haute vitesse Trans-Siberian de $278 milliards reliant Moscou à Pékin, en seulement 48 heures, avec toutes les escales intermédiaires.

Il était donc inexorable que Wang lui-même assemble les pièces du puzzle que Washington refuse de voir : « La construction du corridor économique Chine-Russie-Mongolie relierait la Ceinture économique de la Route de la Soie en Chine au plan ferroviaire transcontinental de la Russie et au programme de la Route de la Prairie en Mongolie. »

Ce que nous avons ici avant tout, c'est la Nouvelle Route de la Soie, qui établit une connexion directe entre la Chine et l'Union économique Russie-Eurasie-(EEU). La Chine et l'EEU sont tenues de mettre en place une zone de libre-échange. Rien de plus naturel en pratique, car il s'agit du sujet de l'intégration eurasienne. Les détails seront entièrement discutés lorsque le président chinois Xi Jinping ira en visite à Moscou le mois prochain, et au Forum économique de Saint-Pétersbourg en juin.

La connexion IP chinoise

La politique chinoise à couper le souffle du Go West débloque enfin aussi un défi clé du Pipelineistan dans la Nouvelle Route de la Soie ; le gazoduc Iran-Pakistan (IP), qui à l'origine incluait l'Inde, était sans relâche harcelé par les deux administrations Bush et Obama et bloqué par les sanctions américaines.

Le tronçon iranien de 900 km, jusqu'à la frontière pakistanaise, est déjà terminé. Ce qui reste – 780 km, coût $2 milliards – sera essentiellement financé par Pékin, le travail technique étant effectué par une filiale de la CNPC. Le Président Xi va annoncer l'accord à Islamabad ce mois-ci.

Donc, ce que nous avons ici, c'est une Chine qui intervient activement, dans le style gagnant-gagnant, afin de mettre en place un cordon ombilical d'acier entre l'Iran et le Pakistan, pour le transport de gaz, avant même que les sanctions sur l'Iran soient levées, progressivement ou non. Appelez cela l'esprit d'entreprise des Nouvelles Routes de la soie en action – chapitre Asie du Sud.

Bien sûr, il y a aussi des avantages innombrables pour Pékin. L'Iran est déjà une question de sécurité nationale pour la Chine – en tant que premier fournisseur de pétrole et de gaz. Le pipeline passera par Gwadar, le port stratégique de l'océan Indien, déjà sous gestion chinoise. Le gaz pourra alors être expédié en Chine par la mer ou – mieux encore – un nouveau pipeline de Gwadar au Xinjiang, parallèle à l'autoroute du Karakoram, pourrait être construit au cours des prochaines années, contournant ainsi le détroit de Malacca, qui est un objectif crucial de la stratégie de diversification énergétique complexe de la Chine.

Et puis il y a l'Afghanistan – qui, du point de vue de Pékin s'inscrit dans le projet de la Nouvelle Route de la Soie en tant que corridor de ressources entre le Sud et l'Asie centrale.

Pékin veut idéalement investir dans le développement des infrastructures de l'Afghanistan pour accéder à ses ressources et consolider encore une autre tête de pont du Xinjiang à l'Asie centrale et plus loin vers le Moyen-Orient. Les produits fabriqués en Chine doivent actuellement passer par le Pakistan pour être exportés vers l'Afghanistan .

CNPC et la China Metallurgical Group Corp. sont déjà en Afghanistan, par le biais d'investissements dans le bassin pétrolifère de l'Amou-Daria et dans l »énorme mine de cuivre d'Anyak. C'est pas simple, mais c'est un début. La Russie et la Chine membres de la SCO ont grand besoin d'un Afghanistan stable, mûr pour le business à la fois dans la Nouvelle Route de la Soie et dans l'EEU. La question clé est de savoir comment satisfaire les talibans. Certes, en n'appliquant pas les méthodes de Washington.

Pendant ce temps, la proposition du Pentagone, pour ce que son nouveau chef Ash Carter décrit dédaigneusement comme cette partie du monde, est de déployer – devinez quoi – de nouvelles armes qui vont du système de défense antimissile THAAD encore en production, jusqu'aux derniers bombardiers furtifs en passant par les les unités spécialisée dans la cyber-guerre. La coopération économique eurasienne ? On oublie. Pour le Pentagone et l'Otan – qui, soit dit en passant, ont récemment perdu une guerre de treize ans contre les talibans – la coopération économique est pour les poules mouillées.


- Source : Pepe Escobar

samedi, 28 mars 2015

Turkmenistan and the Geopolitical Tightrope between Russia/Iran and NATO/EU Powers

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Turkmenistan and the Geopolitical Tightrope between Russia/Iran and NATO/EU Powers

Nuray Lydia Oglu, Hiroshi Saito and Lee Jay Walker

Ex: http://moderntokyotimes.com

Turkmenistanllll.gifThe nation of Turkmenistan is of major geopolitical significance because of its shared borders with Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Of equal significance is the coastal area that links Turkmenistan to the Caspian Sea; thereby sharing a potent area with Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. This reality means that current strains between the Russian Federation and NATO/European Union powers can be felt within important geopolitical decisions that Turkmenistan needs to make. However, the one biding factor prior to the recent clash between Moscow and Washington was the need to remain neutral when applicable.

Energy politics, NATO encroachment, tensions between Iran and Turkey over Syria – and elements of distrust between Tehran and Washington – adds further complexity to an already complex issue. On top of this, Iran is worried by Turkey’s role in being a transit for Takfiri sectarian terrorists against Syria, with the knock on effect being further destabilization in Iraq.

Also, the crisis in Afghanistan remains up in the air. Therefore, Turkmenistan is worried about the growing menace of Takfiri forces, the possible menace of ISIS (IS – Islamic State), political Islam undermining indigenous Islam, and if Iraq is anything to go by – after America and allies pulled out – then the possible reality of new destabilization in Afghanistan. These important factors, and others, mean that Turkmenistan is increasingly feeling the global tensions that persist.

In the area of energy politics it is clear that the European Union (EU), Azerbaijan and Turkey have a different objective compared to Iran and the Russian Federation. This reality is clearly visible when viewing the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) because Moscow and Tehran oppose the TCP based on geopolitical and economic factors. Despite this, the EU, Azerbaijan and Turkey have made positive overtures that include areas outside of the TCP. Therefore, Turkmenistan needs to weigh up the TCP carefully given the geopolitical importance of energy politics alongside other important factors.

Zaur Shiriyev at The Jamestown Foundation states: From Turkmenistan’s point of view, Gazprom’s declaration that it would cut its imports by nearly two-thirds—to 4 billion cubic meters (bcm)—has serious implications. The Russian financial crisis and decline in oil prices has had a direct impact on Turkmenistan’s internal market; notably, it has devalued its currency by 19 percent versus the dollar (Hurriyet Daily News, February 17). These various factors have strengthened Ashgabat’s motivations for seeking alternative markets for its gas. But Turkmenistan’s traditional approach to pipeline politics—that of “zero financial burden, hundred percent effectiveness”—remains unchanged, and so Ashgabat is interested in exporting to markets through existing pipelines or where there are opportunities for expansion, like with the China route. Despite Ashgabat’s dissatisfaction with Gazprom’s decision to cut gas imports, after twenty years of neutrality, Turkmenistan’s approach is unlikely to change; it will almost certainly maintain political sensitivity in its approach toward Moscow. This is particularly important given the broader atmosphere of confrontation between Russia and the West. Ashgabat is highly unlikely to actively support the European Union’s energy diversification strategy, as this would contradict the strongly business-based approach of the Turkmenistani leadership toward gas politics.”

The situation in Afghanistan and the rise of Takfiri Salafi forces in several nations is also worrying the political elites in Turkmenistan. Not only this, the murky role of NATO Turkey being an open conduit for several terrorist and sectarian forces against Syria also complicates the positive hand being plied by Ankara. Also, if NATO powers and allies can create a political vacuum in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and then leave, then how trustworthy are NATO powers in being a genuine partner in the fight against terrorism? Indeed, even political elites in Washington are questioning the current Erdogan government in Turkey therefore divisions within NATO clearly exist.

Turkmenistan refrained from joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization and clearly the Russian Federation must be disappointed by this reality. Of equal significance is the fact that Turkmenistan is only “a guest” of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization despite the powerful geopolitical significance of this organization. However, the decreasing role of America and NATO within Afghanistan may lead to Turkmenistan focusing more strongly on the Russian Federation, China and Iran.

It is abundantly clear that Turkmenistan prefers the geopolitical status quo but this may hinder the economic growth of this nation. Also, the growing menace of terrorism, Islamist indoctrination and the threat of greater destabilization in Afghanistan may lead to Turkmenistan to look towards the Russian Federation and Iran.

After all, it is abundantly clear that in Iraq it is Iranian military forces that are on the ground and helping the central government of this nation. This fact highlights the current weakness of the Obama administration in America. Therefore, while Turkmenistan doesn’t want to take sides, it is equally true that America is losing its influence in Afghanistan and Iraq respectively. However, for Turkmenistan, the economic equation is also of equal significance therefore the political tightrope will remain until brave decisions are taken by this nation.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43646&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=a79ddb4bdb31ed4e48c3832c0a85ced8#.VQXtNGb6nLU

 

mtt

 

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jeudi, 05 mars 2015

How Washington will fan the flames of chaos in Central Asia

Central_Asia_Ethnic.jpg

Three fronts for Russia: How Washington will fan the flames of chaos in Central Asia

by Ivan Lizan for Odnako

Source: http://www.odnako.org/blogs/tri-fronta-dlya-rossii-kak-vashington-razduet-plamya-haosa-v-sredney-azii/

Translated by Robin
Ex: http://www.vineyardsaker.blogspot.com

U.S. Gen. “Ben” Hodges’ statement that within four or five years Russia could develop the capability to wage war simultaneously on three fronts is not only an acknowledgment of the Russian Federation’s growing military potential but also a promise that Washington will obligingly ensure that all three fronts are right on the borders of the Russian Federation.

In the context of China’s inevitable rise and the soon-to-worsen financial crisis, with the concomitant bursting of asset bubbles, the only way for the United States to maintain its global hegemony is to weaken its opponents. And the only way to achieve that goal is to trigger chaos in the republics bordering Russia.

That is why Russia will inevitably enter a period of conflicts and crises on its borders.

And so the first front in fact already exists in the Ukraine, the second will most likely be between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, and the third, of course, will be opened in Central Asia.

If the war in Ukraine leads to millions of refugees, tens of thousands of deaths, and the destruction of cities, defrosting the Karabakh conflict will completely undermine Russia’s entire foreign policy in the Caucasus.

Every city in Central Asia is under threat of explosions and attacks. So far this “up-and-coming front” has attracted the least media coverage – Novorossiya dominates on national television channels, in newspapers, and on websites –, but this theater of war could become one of the most complex after the conflict in the Ukraine.

A subsidiary of the Caliphate under Russia’s belly

The indisputable trend in Afghanistan – and the key source of instability in the region – is to an alliance between the Taliban and the Islamic State. Even so, the formation of their union is in its early days, references to it are scarce and fragmentary, and the true scale of the activities of the IS emissaries is unclear, like an iceberg whose tip barely shows above the surface of the water.

But it has been established that IS agitators are active in Pakistan and in Afghanistan’s southern provinces, which are controlled by the Taliban. But, in this case, the first victim of chaos in Afghanistan is Pakistan, which at the insistence of, and with help from, the United States nurtured the Taliban in the 1980s. That project has taken on a life of its own and is a recurring nightmare for Islamabad, which has decided to establish a friendlier relationship China and Russia. This trend can be seen in the Taliban’s attacks on Pakistani schools, whose teachers now have the right to carry guns, regular arrests of terrorists in the major cities, and the start of activities in support of tribes hostile to the Taliban in the north.

The latest legislative development in Pakistan is a constitutional amendment to expand military court jurisdiction [over civilians]. Throughout the country, terrorists, Islamists and their sympathizers are being detained. In the northwest alone, more than 8,000 arrests have been made, including members of the clergy. Religious organizations have been banned and IS emissaries are being caught.

Since the Americans do not like putting all their eggs in one basket, they will provide support to the government in Kabul, which will allow them to remain in the country legitimately, and at the same time to the Taliban, which is transforming itself into IS. The outcome will be a state of chaos in which the Americans will not formally take part; instead, they will sit back on their military bases, waiting to see who wins. And then Washington will provide assistance to the victor. Note that its security services have been supporting the Taliban for a long time and quite effectively: some of the official security forces and police in Afghanistan are former Taliban and Mujahideen.

Method of destruction

The first way to destabilize Central Asia is to create problems on the borders, along with the threat that Mujahideen will penetrate the region. The testing of the neighbours has already started; problems have arisen in Turkmenistan, which has even had to ask Kabul to hold large-scale military operations in the border provinces. Tajikistan has forced the Taliban to negotiate the release of the border guards it abducted, and the Tajik border service reports that there is a large group of Mujahideen on its borders.

In general, all the countries bordering Afghanistan have stepped up their border security.

The second way is to send Islamists behind the lines. The process has already begun: the number of extremists in Tajikistan alone grew three-fold last year; however, even though they are being caught, it obviously will not be feasible to catch all of them. Furthermore, the situation is aggravated by the return of migrant workers from Russia, which will expand the recruiting base. If the stream of remittances from Russia dries up, the outcome may be popular discontent and managed riots.

Kyrgyz expert Kadir Malikov reports that $70 million has been allocated to the IS military group Maverenahr, which includes representatives of all the Central Asian republics, to carry out acts of terrorism in the region. Special emphasis is placed on the Fergana Valley as the heart of Central Asia.

Another point of vulnerability is Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for this fall. The initiation of a new set of color revolutions will lead to chaos and the disintegration of countries.

Self-supporting wars

Waging war is expensive, so the destabilization of the region must be self-supporting or at least profitable for the U.S. military-industrial complex. And in this area Washington has had some success: it has given Uzbekistan 328 armored vehicles that Kiev had requested for its war with Novorossiya. At first glance, the deal isn’t profitable because the machines were a gift, but in reality Uzbekistan will be tied to U.S. spare parts and ammunition. Washington made a similar decision on the transfer of equipment and weapons to Islamabad.

But the United States has not been successful in its attempts to impose its weapons systems on India: the Indians have not signed any contracts, and Obama was shown Russian military hardware when he attended a military parade.

Thus the United States is drawing the countries in the region into war with its own protégés – the Taliban and Islamic State – and at the same time is supplying its enemies with weapons.

***

So 2015 will be marked by preparations for widespread destabilization in Central Asia and the transformation of AfPak into an Islamic State subsidiary on the borders of Russia, India, China, and Iran. The start of full-scale war, which will inevitably follow once chaos engulfs the region, will lead to a bloodbath in the “Eurasian Balkans,” automatically involving more than a third of the world’s population and almost all the United States’ geopolitical rivals. It’s an opportunity Washington will find too good to miss.

Russia’s response to this challenge has to be multifaceted: involving the region in the process of Eurasian integration, providing military, economic, and political assistance, working closely with its allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS, strengthening the Pakistani army, and of course assisting with the capture of the bearded servants of the Caliphate.

But the most important response should be the accelerated modernization of its armed forces as well as those of its allies and efforts to strengthen the Collective Security Treaty Organization and give it the right to circumvent the highly inefficient United Nations.

The region is extremely important: if Ukraine is a fuse of war, then Central Asia is a munitions depot. If it blows up, half the continent will be hit.

 

mardi, 27 janvier 2015

La puissante organisation dont personne ne parle: l'OSC

 

 

 

La puissante organisation dont personne ne parle: l'OSC

Auteur : The Wealth Watchman
Ex: http://zejournal.mobi

Le réel pouvoir fondateur derrière les BRICS.

Les BRICS, comme nous l’avons déjà traité par ailleurs, ont été formés en réponse à la fraude financière et aux malversations occidentales. Son plus grand objectif est de donner à l’Orient une véritable impulsion dans des domaines comme le commerce, les mesures de sécurité et la coopération économique, le tout au sein d’un cercle qu’eux seuls, et non Washington, peuvent contrôler.

Ils ont parcouru un long chemin en un court laps de temps, c’est vrai, mais ils sont encore « les petits nouveaux du quartier ». En fait, ils ne se sont même pas conceptualisés en tant qu’idée sérieuse avant Septembre 2006 ! Leur première rencontre officielle, sans l’Afrique du Sud, n’a été tenue qu’en 2009.

Cependant, il y a une autre organisation qui est apparue avant les BRICS et qui est encore plus influente qu’eux en quelque sorte! Une organisation dont les fondateurs ont fait naître en premier l’idée ouvertement pro-marchés émergents, tout comme les BRICS.

Cette organisation dont presque personne ne parle, est appelée l’ « Organisation de Coopération de Shanghai » (OCS).

Je vous avais dit que presque personne n’en parle! Laissez-moi vous présenter l’organisation la plus puissante aujourd’hui dont presque personne n’a entendu parler. Mais c’est pour bientôt!

L’histoire derrière sa fondation

Tout d’abord, l’OCS s’ést établi avant les BRICS, en fait, leurs fondations ont été posées une décennie plus tôt, en 1996. Le but de l’OCS est un peu différent de celui des BRICS, toutefois ils ont de nombreux objectifs parallèles. Tout d’abord, la création de l’OCS est l’idée d’une alliance partielle entre deux pays, la Russie et la Chine.

Pourquoi alors ont-ils été créés ?

C’est la vraie question. Afin de bien mettre nos têtes au clair sur ce sujet, faisons un rapide récapitulatif de l’histoire.

Au tout début des années 1990, lorsque l’Union Soviétique avait pratiquement perdu la guerre froide, de nombreuses garanties et traités ont été acceptés et signés, entre Gorbatchev et les États-Unis. L’un des principes directeurs était que la Russie accepte, afin de faire disparaitre pacifiquement l’Union Soviétique, que la nouvelle Allemagne Ouest et Est réunis, adhère à l’OTAN. Cependant, tout aussi important, en retour, la garantie avait été donnée au Ministre des Affaires Étrangères soviétique, Edouard Chevardnadze, que l’OTAN (une force militaire de dissuasion créée comme un contrepoids pour surveiller les forces soviétiques en Europe), n’utilise, en aucun cas, l’Allemagne pour faire un « saute mouton » et étendre sa composition plus à l’Est.

C’était un accord des plus raisonnable, et il constituait la base d’une grande paix … une paix qui aurait pu durer indéfiniment sans l’orgueil et l’arrogance de l’Ouest et des « banksters » mondialistes qui se sont hissés à sa tête. En fait, tout bêtement, le Dragon de la Banque a immédiatement commencé à revenir sur cette promesse fondamentale faite à la Russie, et a commencé à bâtir des plans pour étendre son alliance militaire de l’OTAN vers l’Est, vers le territoire russe.

La toute première admission publique faite par les mondialistes, montrant qu’ils visaient à rompre leurs promesses sur l’expansion de l’OTAN vers la Russie, fût faite par le président Clinton, en faisant un demi-tour complet en 1996. Par ailleurs, si vous vous souvenez, 1996 fût exactement l’année durant laquelle le groupe, qui deviendra l’OCS, a été formé (ce n’est pas une coïncidence).

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« Wile E. Brzezinski », Kissinger, et tous les magouilleurs de l’OTAN, ont immédiatement commencé à mettre leurs promesses dans la corbeille à papier! Dans tous les sens, et aussi vers l’Est, ils ont distribué des cartes d’adhérents à l’OTAN, à tout le monde et même à leurs animaux de compagnie!

La Hongrie, la République tchèque, la Pologne et même d’anciens satellites soviétiques, comme les pays baltes, ont été admis. Plutôt que de tenir leur promesse de ne pas étendre l’OTAN, ils ont carrément doublé le nombre d’adhérents, passant de 12 à 24 États! A l’heure actuelle, ils sont 28 membres. Ils sont même allés jusqu’à mettre quelques bases navales en Asie centrale.

Le principe élémentaire des ces traités a été violé, et Washington DC s’est mit en mouvement pour encercler militairement la Russie, pour mettre des « systèmes de défense antimissile » en place autour de leurs frontières. Tout cela a été accompli au cours d’une planification de pivot vers l’Asie, et même d’un déplacement vers les républiques d’Asie centrale. Le pouvoir vacant que l’Empire Soviétique en ruine avait laissé, allait bientôt être comblé par Brzezinski et les mondialistes occidentaux.

Quelque chose devait être fait pour contenir les agressions des États-Unis et de l’OTAN, et rapidement.

L’Orient Répond

La Russie et la Chine savaient ce que signifiait l’annonce du président Clinton sur les nouvelles adhésions à l’OTAN, et se sont immédiatement mis au travail. Dans la même année, ils ont mit en place une organisation, dans la ville de Shanghai, connue sous le nom de « Shanghai Five », car il avait cinq États membres à ses débuts. Plus tard, en 2001, avec l’admission de l’Ouzbékistan, il a été rebaptisé l’Organisation de Coopération de Shanghai.

Jetons un coup d’œil à la brève description que Wikipédia lui donne dans leur introduction: L’OCS est une organisation politique, économique et militaire eurasienne qui a été fondée à Shanghai par les dirigeants de la Chine, du Kazakhstan, du Kirghizistan, de la Russie et du Tadjikistan.

Arrêtons nous là un moment. Rappelez-vous les pays que nous avons examinés et que « Wile E. Brzezinski » avait désigné dans « Le Grand Échiquier » comme clés pour contrôler l’Eurasie? Oui, il s’agissait de l’Ouzbékistan, du Tadjikistan et du Turkménistan, etc. Il semble que la Russie et la Chine avaient un accord avec M. Brzezinski, sur la question de leur importance stratégique, parce que, dès l’instant où ils ont su que les promesses de l’OTAN étaient nulles et non avenues, ils ont commencé à bouger pour fermer l’Ouest par ce couloir particulier de façon définitive.

Ses six États membres couvrent 60% de la masse continentale de l’Eurasie, sans oublier de mentionner qu’ils représentent l’énorme quart de la population mondiale!

Cependant, si vous incluez les États «observateurs», qui sont en lice pour une adhésion officielle, alors tous ceux qui sont affiliés à cette organisation comprendraient pas moins de 50% de la population mondiale!

Eh bien, bénissez-moi, si tout ceci n’avait pas été préparé de longue date! Les seules parties ignorées sont l’Asie du Sud, le Caucase, le monde arabe et l’Europe! Presque tout le monde en Asie centrale et méridionale est soit un membre, soit un «observateur» en l’état actuel des choses!

Parlons des «observateurs» …

L’adhésion à l’OCS

Une nation ne peut pas simplement décider de rejoindre l’OCS. Ce n’est pas comme cela que ça fonctionne. L’OCS soumet un candidat à un processus de «filtrage» avant de l’accepter comme nouveau membre.

La première étape pour devenir un membre, traditionnellement, est de demander le « statut d’observateur ». Ensuite les membres tiennent une série de réunions de dialogue avec le demandeur, afin de déterminer si l’application de la nation serait un ajout positif au groupe. Le test décisif pour l’adhésion semble consister à savoir si l’application de la nation répondrait à quelque chose appelé « L’esprit de Shanghai ».

Dans leurs propres mots, pour satisfaire à « L’esprit de Shanghai », une nation candidate doit remplir ces caractéristiques : la confiance mutuelle, les avantages réciproques, l’égalité, la consultation, le respect de la diversité culturelle et la poursuite du développement commun.

Si un candidat ne peut pas répondre à la plupart ou la totalité de ces choses, il ne fait pas l’affaire. Afin d’être approuvé au « statut d’observateur », chacun des six pays membres doit vous donner le feu vert. Si le Tadjikistan pense que vous seriez un préjudice pour le groupe, alors ce que pensent la Chine et la Russie n’a pas d’importance: vous ne faites pas l’affaire! Il doit y avoir un accord unanime pour qu’un nouveau membre rejoigne les rangs.

La stratégie la plus évidente pour les États-Unis et l’OTAN ne serait-elle pas tout simplement de détruire cette nouvelle organisation de l’intérieur? Pourquoi ne rejoignent-ils pas tout simplement l’OCS, afin de contrecarrer toutes ses voix?

Les États-Unis ont déjà demandé le « statut d’observateur » à l’OCS! En fait, ils ont demandé il y a près d’une décennie, en 2006, et on leur a répondu « merci, mais non merci ».

Cela devrait cimenter, dans l’esprit de chacun, à quel point ils sont retranchés contre Washington et les élites occidentales.

Une organisation militaire

Toutefois, au cas où vous seriez tentés de penser que l’OCS est juste un groupe de gars « sympathiques », qui chantent « Kumbaya », et applique de la cire sur des propos de solidarité, de coopération et de commerce, détrompez-vous! Ne l’oublions pas, l’OCS n’est pas un « tigre de papier ». D’ailleurs, l’OCS a toujours été prévu pour des questions militaires depuis le début. Après tout, il a été construit pour offrir la sécurité aux frontières de ses États membres, à la fois contre le terrorisme et contre toute tentative de placer des systèmes de missiles autour de leur périphérie. C’était une réponse directe à l’empiètement de l’OTAN vers les frontières de la Russie.

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En fait, durant leur dernière réunion en Septembre, ils ont réaffirmé leur position catégorique à propos de tels comportements : « le renforcement unilatéral et illimité du système de défense antimissile par un quelconque État ou groupe d’états nuirait à la sécurité internationale et à la stabilité stratégique ».

Ils disent clairement à la fois à Washington et à l’OTAN, que de tenter de rajouter des systèmes de défense antimissile, serait considéré comme une menace directe à leur stabilité et à leur sécurité.

Mais, ils ne se sont pas contentés de simplement dire aux banquiers occidentaux de faire marche arrière, ils ont commencé à organiser certains exercices de guerre assez impressionnants. En fait, l’an dernier, ils ont tenu conjointement un exercice anti-terroriste qui a impliqué plus de 7000 soldats.

Comme vous pouvez le voir, ils ont clairement évolués du stade de « renforcement de la confiance » des premiers jours, vers une alliance militaire assurée et hautement synchronisée. Laquelle est capable de répondre rapidement aux menaces internes ou externes.

Le dernier recours des « banksters »

Cela a eu pour effet de terrifier les banksters. Après tout, leur truc habituel, depuis des siècles, a toujours été de «diviser pour régner». Ils ont été maîtres en la matière pour retourner les peuples et les nations les uns contre les autres, de sorte qu’ils puissent les manipuler et les contrôler, mais cette tactique « d’empêcher les barbares de se rassembler », à l’évidence ne fonctionne plus.

Puisque le pouvoir militaro/bancaire anglo-américain ne va sûrement pas s’en aller gentiment, ils se trouvent concrètement face à une seule option: essayer d’attirer l’un d’eux dans une guerre, avant que les concurrents arrivistes (OCS, BRICS, Eurasian Economic Alliance) ne puissent complètement se fondre ensemble. Si vous regardez tout autour, c’est exactement ce que vous verrez.

En essayant de lancer inutilement une guerre contre l’Iran (qui a le «statut d’observateur» à l’OCS), de renverser le gouvernement de l’Ukraine, et de tenter d’attirer la Russie dans une guerre dans la région du Dombass séparatiste, les États-Unis et Londres ont tenté d’entraver tout nouveau progrès de cette alliance résolument anti-dollar, anti-OTAN et anti-FMI.

Par ailleurs, en 2014, l’OCS a décidé de ne pas ajouter de nouveaux membres pour l’instant, bien qu’elle devait le faire. La raison est que l’OCS pensait que le fait que les banksters tentent d’attirer la Russie dans la guerre en Ukraine était si grave, que la majeure partie de la réunion de Septembre 2014 a porté sur l’élaboration d’un accord de paix sur cette situation.

En vérité, si vous voulez connaître les forces réelles derrière l’accord de Minsk, ne cherchez pas plus loin qu’un effort conjoint du Kremlin et l’OCS.

La tentative de mettre l’Ukraine toute entière hors des sentiers du commerce eurasien, n’a été que partiellement réussie. Après tout, l’Occident a perdu la Crimée, et à ce jour, a perdu le Dombass également. Cet échec à prendre la base navale russe de la mer noire, et à attirer la Russie dans un engagement, a fait grincer les dents de Wile E. Brzezinski et de ses marionnettistes mondialistes. Si vous ne me croyez pas, il suffit d’écouter cette interview avec le « coyote » lui-même (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrRPZ6CBvPw). Il est plus bouleversé que je ne l’ai jamais vu, et il a pourtant donné beaucoup d’interviews au cours des 6 derniers mois.

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Conclusion

« Wile E. Brzezinski » et les puissants « banksters » occidentaux sont désespérés et paniqués , en regardant, impuissants, leur plus grande crainte se dérouler devant eux. Une alliance eurasienne viable est en train de devenir réalité.

Dans cette nouvelle réalité, leurs anciens mécanismes de contrôle (le prêt à intérêt et l’esclavage par la dette du FMI et de la Banque Mondiale, ainsi que les incursions de « sécurité » des États-Unis et de l’OTAN) seront à la fois importuns et sans pertinence.

Le monde ne veut plus de leurs « services » voyous. Après tout, ils peuvent subvenir à leur propre sécurité!

Le monde n’a jamais eu besoin de cette drogue dette/monnaie des banksters, et grâce à la Banque des BRICS et d’autres mécanismes, ils vont bientôt avoir tout le capital dont ils ont besoin pour s’attaquer à leurs défis, libéré du contrôle de la Banque Dragon.

Les BRICS ont un énorme pouvoir, mais ils ont toujours été l’extension économique d’une précédente alliance militaro/sécuritaire, l’OCS. Jusqu’à ce point, l’OCS a préféré que les BRICS soient le visage public de l’alternative à la domination occidentale, mais l’OCS cherche à commencer à monter sur le devant de la scène, aux côtés des BRICS.

Tout cela conduit à des conjectures concernant une information récente qui a fait l’effet d’une bombe.

Est-ce que quelqu’un d’autre se souvient de l’annulation du South Stream, le gazoduc qui devait s’écouler à travers la Bulgarie et en Europe?

Qui est désormais le principal bénéficiaire de ce pipeline de gaz naturel à la place de l’Europe ?

La Turquie, un «observateur» de l’OCS, et (dans mon esprit) le joueur asiatique clé, pas encore totalement admis à bord. L’Eurasie ne peut pas bien fonctionner sans ce pays « passerelle » qu’est la Turquie.

L’abandon du South Stream à travers l’Europe est une énorme affaire, et cela m’amène à me demander: est-ce le prix à payer pour convaincre la Turquie (également membre-clé asiatique de l’OTAN) de changer de camp d’Ouest en Est? Seront-ils bientôt l’État surprise, qui passera de pays «observateur» de l’OCS, à membre à part entière au vote en 2015?

En outre, s’il devait rejoindre pleinement l’OCS, deviendrait-il le premier grand membre de l’OTAN … à quitter l’OTAN?

Cependant, qu’il soit inclus parmi les membres en 2015 ou non, une chose est certaine, ces nouvelles organisations de l’Eurasie sont en train de changer l’histoire si vite, que cela dépasse l’entendement. Le 21ème siècle ne ressemblera en rien à ses prédécesseurs. L’Asie (et progressivement l’Europe) semble être désireux de créer un monde nouveau, libéré des banksters « US/UK » et de leur contrôle militaire.

A quoi ressemblera la terre, une fois que tout le monde se sera rendu compte que la «nation indispensable» a toujours été complètement dispensable?

Enfin, qu’arrivera-t-il au dollar américain, et à ceux dont la richesse repose sur lui, une fois que cette nouvelle puissance mondiale sera prête à l’abandonner entièrement (comme ils le feront très certainement)?

Depuis plus d’un siècle, les banques occidentales ont volé la richesse et le destin des plus anciens, des dynasties de l’Est, et maintenant les peuples et les pouvoirs qui y sont situés, ont formé un partenariat aux dents solides pour une coopération sur leurs intérêts communs.

Désolé « Wile E. Brzezinski » et les amis mondialistes mais votre rêve de garder l’Eurasie divisée et sous votre pouce est bouleversé !


- Source : The Wealth Watchman

samedi, 17 janvier 2015

Il Nuovo Grande Gioco

Central_Asia_-_political_map_-_2000.svg_.png

Il Nuovo Grande Gioco n°82

Christoph Germann

Ex: http://aurorasito.wordpress.com

English version here:

http://christophgermann.blogspot.com

Dalla fine del 2013, la Turchia è travolta dall’implacabile lotta di potere tra Recep Tayyip Erdogan, che ha lasciato la carica di primo ministro turco lo scorso anno per diventare il 12° presidente del Paese, e l’influente movimento appoggiato dalla CIA dell’auto-descritto “imam, predicatore e attivista della società civile” Fethullah Guelen, che vive negli Stati Uniti da quando fu costretto a fuggire in Turchia nel 1999. Il conflitto tra gli ex-alleati ha ormai raggiunto un punto in cui il presidente Erdogan si prepara ad aggiungere il movimento di Guelen nel ‘libro nero’ della Turchia, dato che l’organizzazione sarà classificata minaccia alla sicurezza nazionale della Turchia. Anche se la lotta per il potere in gran parte ha luogo in Turchia, altri Paesi, come l’Azerbaigian, ne sono colpiti ed Erdogan non è l’unico che cerca di contenere le attività dell’oscuro movimento. I regimi in Asia Centrale sono sempre più sospettosi verso le scuole di Guelen e con buona ragione. Dopo Russia e Uzbekistan, che avevano già chiuso le scuole oltre un decennio fa, il Turkmenistan ha seguito l’esempio, negli ultimi anni, e le scuole di Guelen in Tagikistan sono ora sotto esame, come il quotidiano filo-Erdogan Sabah ha trionfalmente annunciato questa settimana:


Il Tajikistan chiude le scuole di Guelen, definendole ‘missione ombra’


Sajdov Nuriddin Sajdovich, ministro dell’educazione e della scienza del Tagikistan, ha annunciato che non estenderà l’accordo con il Movimento Guelen sul permesso di aprire scuole nel Paese, in quanto considera la missione delle scuole del gruppo come “oscura”. Secondo la stampa locale, un funzionario del ministero, Rohimjon Sajdov, ha anche detto che sarà dissolto l’accordo tra il movimento Guelen e il governo tagiko sulle sue scuole nella regione. Sajdov ha aggiunto che l’accordo con gli istituti d’istruzione in questione scade nel 2015 e che il Paese non lo prorogherà. Attualmente vi sono 10 scuole in Tagikistan gestite dal movimento. La prima scuola del gruppo fu aperte nel 1992. Negli ultimi dieci anni, le finalità delle scuole sono al centro di un acceso dibattito nel governo turco. Vi sono state numerose richieste di chiusura da parte di Ankara”.

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Il Tagikistan controlla le scuole di Guelen, preparandosi al caos afgano


È interessante notare che, secondo i media tagiki, Sajdov non ha menzionato la parola “ombra”. Invece ha detto che il governo tagiko sta per rivedere le licenze per le scuole Guelen perché la loro missione è “poco chiara”. Il quotidiano Sabah è noto caricare il caso quando si tratta del movimento Guelen, ma dato che le scuole di Guelen svolgono un ruolo decisivo nell’islamizzazione di Asia centrale e Caucaso e furono utilizzate per varie operazioni segrete della CIA, le autorità tagike dovrebbero considerare la missione delle scuole come “oscura”. Dushanbe ha a lungo lamentato che i giovani tagiki, che studiano illegalmente nelle scuole religiose islamiche all’estero, “possono facilmente radicalizzarsi ed essere reclutati nei gruppi estremisti o militanti”, mentre si fa poco per fermare indottrinamento e reclutamento dei terroristi interi. Tuttavia, le ultime azioni indicano che ciò potrebbe cambiare nel prossimo futuro:


Un presunto capo islamista e suoi subordinati detenuti in Tagikistan


Il presunto capo di una cellula del Movimento islamico dell’Uzbekistan (IMU) e 10 presunti collaboratori sono stati arrestati in Tagikistan. Il ministero dell’Interno tagiko ha detto in una dichiarazione televisiva, il 7 gennaio, che Ikrom Halilov, ex-imam di una moschea locale e altri erano stati arrestati nel distretto di Shakhrinav, a 50 chilometri ad ovest della capitale Dushanbe. Secondo il ministero, il gruppo è sospettato di pianificare l’attacco a una stazione di polizia, al fine di rubarne le armi”.


Negli ultimi mesi, il Movimento islamico dell’Uzbekistan (IMU) fa notizia nel nord dell’Afghanistan, dove i combattenti dell’Asia centrale appartenenti al gruppo IMU o a schegge, come Jamat Ansarullah, e le alleate forze taliban si ammassano ai confini di Tagikistan e Turkmenistan. Alla fine dello scorso anno, Zamir Kabulov, rappresentante speciale del presidente russo Vladimir Putin per l’Afghanistan, ha rilasciato una lunga intervista ad Interfax avvertendo della minaccia all’Asia centrale e alla Russia, ma stranamente ha detto che i jihadisti nel nord dell’Afghanistan provengono dallo Stato islamico (SIIL). Kabulov ha descritto in dettaglio come molti combattenti si concentrino sulle teste di ponte in Tagikistan e Turkmenistan e sottolineato che “i nostri alleati Tagikistan e Uzbekistan lo sanno, confermando le stesse informazioni e prendendo misure“. Perché per Kabulov gli insorti siano combattenti del SIIL non è chiaro. Alcuni jihadisti tagiki del SIIL hanno recentemente proclamato l’intenzione di “combattere gli infedeli” in Tagikistan, ma non hanno ancora ottenuto il permesso:


I militanti del SIIL chiedono a Baghdadi il permesso di combattere gli ‘infedeli’ in Tagikistan


I militanti dello Stato Islamico (IS) in Iraq hanno pubblicato un video dicendo di aver chiesto il permesso al gruppo dirigente per la jihad in Tagikistan, ha riferito RFE/RL tagiko. Abu Umarijon dice che lui e i suoi camerati tagiki hanno chiesto a Baghadi, capo dello Stato islamico, il permesso di tornare in Tagikistan e combattere con il gruppo estremista Jamat Ansarullah. Tuttavia, Baghdadi non gliel’ha concesso. “Agli emiri (capi) militanti che hanno trasmesso il messaggio ad Baghdadi è stato detto che in questo momento devono attendere”, spiega il militante tagiko”.


Il video ha causato scalpore in Tagikistan e il Centro Islamico del Tagikistan ha condannato i jihadisti chiedendo come sia possibile “la jihad in uno Stato la cui popolazione è al 99 per cento musulmana“. Ma anche senza il ritorno dei combattenti tagiki del SIIL, le autorità tagike hanno tutte le ragioni di preoccuparsi della situazione nel nord dell’Afghanistan. I sequestri sul confine tagiko-afgano evidenziano recentemente la gravità della minaccia. Questa settimana, i funzionari tagiki hanno reso pubblica l’identità delle quattro guardie di frontiera tagiki rapite il mese scorso, e hanno respinto le affermazioni secondo cui i taliban avevano fatto richieste per il loro rilascio. A causa del deterioramento della situazione della sicurezza, i servizi speciali del Tagikistan avrebbero preso “una serie di misure per rafforzare i tratti più vulnerabili” del confine tagiko-afghano e ora sorvegliano molto da vicino le attività degli insorti nel nord dell’Afghanistan. Oltre a questo, il Tagikistan ha anche creato una nuova base militare vicino al confine:


Per sorvegliare i taliban, il Tagikistan crea una nuova base militare al confine afghano


Le forze armate del Tagikistan creano una nuova base vicino al confine con l’Afghanistan in risposta all’apparente aumento dei combattenti sul lato afghano del confine. La base, chiamata “Khomijon”, sarà nella regione di Kuljab. “Carri armati, veicoli corazzati e altri armamenti” saranno impiegati nella base che “unità di tutte le strutture di sicurezza del Paese utilizzeranno per le manovre operative”, ha riferito RFE/RL citando una fonte del Ministero della Difesa del Tagikistan. Mentre non vi è alcuna “minaccia immediata” del concentramento di combattenti taliban al confine con il Tagikistan, Dushanbe ha scelto di adottare “misure preventive”, ha detto il funzionario. Una fonte anonima nel Comitato di Stato sulla Sicurezza Nazionale (GKNB) del Tagikistan ha detto all’agenzia russa TASS che “gruppi non controllati da Kabul” si sono ammassati sul lato afgano del confine”.

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I taliban smentiscono le affermazioni del governo, mentre Ghani chiede agli USA di rimanere per sempre


Lo stesso giorno, un anonimo funzionario del servizio di sicurezza nazionale dell’Uzbekistan con linguaggio simile avvertiva dell'”aumento della presenza di formazioni armate non controllate dal governo dell’Afghanistan“. L’Uzbekistan prende alcune misure per affrontare il problema, ma le autorità uzbeke non costruiscono nuove basi militari, perché sono meglio preparate ad affrontare la minaccia dei vicini Tagikistan o Turkmenistan. Dopo che i taliban si sono avvicinati al Turkmenistan un mese fa, riprendendosi Khamjab nel distretto afgano di Jowzjan, il governo afgano ora cerca di calmare i nervi di Ashgabat. Il capo della polizia di Jowzjan, generale Fakir Muhammad Jaujani ha annunciato, la scorsa settimana, che le forze armate afgane preparano operazioni su vasta scala nelle province di Jowzjan e Faryab, dove gli insorti hanno ripetutamente provocato problemi negli ultimi mesi. Anche se l’International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) della NATO ha concluso la guerra in Afghanistan solo di nome, il presidente afgano Ashraf Ghani non ha perso tempo nel rimpiangere le truppe della coalizione:


Il presidente afgano dice agli USA di ‘riesaminare’ la data del ritiro


Il presidente afghano Ashraf Ghani ha detto in un’intervista che gli Stati Uniti dovrebbero “rivedere” il calendario della ritirata delle restanti truppe della coalizione nel Paese entro la fine del 2016. Le “scadenze sono dettate dalla mente ma non dovrebbero essere dei dogmi”, ha detto Ghani al programma della CBS “60 Minutes” sulla questione. Alla domanda cosa avesse detto al presidente USA Barack Obama, Ghani ha detto: “Il presidente Obama mi conosce, non abbiamo bisogno di spiegarci”.
Dato che Ghani è l’uomo di Washington, le sue parole sono una vera sorpresa e questa intervista probabilmente gli guadagnerà altri tributi sulla stampa statunitense. Ma mentre i funzionari e i media degli Stati Uniti non perdono occasione per elogiare il nuovo leader dell’Afghanistan, il popolo afgano è meno impressionato dalle prestazioni di Ghani, finora. Secondo l’ultimo sondaggio del notiziario afgano TOLOnews e dell’istituto di ricerca ART, Ghani ha perso popolarità tra la popolazione afgana, quasi il 50 per cento, dal suo insediamento a fine settembre. Uno dei motivi probabili è che Ghani non ha formato un governo con il direttore generale del suo governo di unità nazionale, Abdullah Abdullah. Anche se i due uomini hanno raggiunto un accordo per la condivisione del potere a settembre, c’è lo stallo sulle cariche governative. Ghani ha anche sperato di portare tre capi taliban nel suo governo, ma il gruppo ha respinto l’offerta:


I taliban rifiutano l’offerta di posti nel governo afghano


Ai taliban sono stati offerti posti nel nuovo governo afghano, ma hanno rifiutato, afferma la BBC. L’offerta proviene dal nuovo presidente Ashraf Ghani, nel tentativo di porre fine alla ribellione che minaccia il Paese. I tre uomini che il presidente Ghani aveva sperato di attirare nel suo governo erano Mullah Zaif, ex-ambasciatore talib in Pakistan, che ha vissuto relativamente apertamente a Kabul per alcuni anni, Wakil Muttawakil, ex-ministro degli Esteri talib, e Ghairat Bahir, un parente di Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, le cui forze sono alleate ai taliban”.


Se Ghani non riesce a raggiungere un accordo con i taliban, la situazione in Afghanistan può solo peggiorare e il presidente afghano avrà difficoltà a restare al potere. Così l’appello di Ghani agli Stati Uniti di “riesaminare” la scadenza del ritiro ha perfettamente senso. Tuttavia, come già detto, le preoccupazioni di Ghani sul cosiddetto ritiro della NATO sono completamente infondate. L’esercito statunitense ha risposto all’intervista di “60 minutes” dicendo che gli Stati Uniti “prevedono di restare in forze e non ci sono stati cambiamenti sul ritiro”, ma anche se gli Stati Uniti proseguono con il piano per avere una “normale” ambasciata a Kabul alla fine del 2016, ciò significa tenere migliaia di contractor nel Paese devastato dalla guerra. Tuttavia, al momento non sembra come gli Stati Uniti prendano sul serio il piano della ritirata:


A Camp Lejeune i marines si preparano a schierarsi in Afghanistan


Pochi mesi dopo la presunta fine delle operazioni di combattimento del Corpo in Afghanistan, ufficiali rivelano che i marines sono diretti di nuovo nel Paese dilaniato dalla guerra, ma i dettagli dell’operazione sono pochi. La notizia arriva con un comunicato stampa del Corpo dei Marines che delinea i preparativi compiuti dalla 2.nda Compagnia di collegamento d’artiglieria aero-navale di Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. La compagnia ha testato ls disponibilità della squadra di collegamento inter-arma Alpha a uno schieramento imminente in Afghanistan per la soluzione di vari scenari “reali” tra l’8 e l’11 dicembre, secondo il comunicato. Oltre al comunicato stampa, ufficiali del Corpo dei Marines si sono rifiutati di discutere dell’imminente schieramento del 2° ANGLICO. Citando la sicurezza operativa, un portavoce della Marine Expeditionary Force ha rifiutato di specificare quando, e per quanto, verrà schierata l’unità, dove opererà in Afghanistan e se altre unità dei marines l’accompagneranno”.

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La lotta agli agenti del ‘regime change’ di Washington nel Caucaso meridionale


Oltre alle truppe statunitensi, l’operazione Resolute Support, la missione di prosieguo dell’ISAF, conta su numerose truppe di altri Paesi della NATO e alleati, come Georgia e Azerbaigian. Un gruppo di soldati azeri è appena partito per l’Afghanistan a sostegno della missione della NATO, nonostante le tensioni tra il regime del leader dell’Azerbaigian Ilham Aliev e l’occidente. Negli ultimi mesi, l’Azerbaigian ha ripetutamente fatto notizia per la repressione di ONG, attivisti per i diritti umani e giornalisti, molti supportati da Stati Uniti e Unione europea. Dopo che le autorità azere avevano già arrestato Khadija Ismailova, giornalista investigativa che collabora per il servizio azero del portavoce della CIA, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), all’inizio del mese scorso, le relazioni tra Baku e Washington peggioravano quando il regime di Aliev ha chiuso l’ufficio di RFE/RL di Baku, un paio di settimane dopo:


USA ‘allarmati’ dall’Azerbaijan che chiude gli uffici a Baku di RFE/RL


Il dipartimento di Stato degli Stati Uniti è preoccupato per la situazione dei diritti umani in Azerbaigian, aggravatosi dopo che le autorità hanno fatto irruzione e chiuso l’ufficio di RFE/RL a Baku ed interrogato dipendenti e collaboratori. Il portavoce del dipartimento di Stato Jeff Rathke ha riferito alla conferenza del 29 dicembre a Washington: “Queste azioni, insieme alla negazione dell’assistenza legale in tali interrogatori, sono ulteriore motivo di preoccupazione. Gli uffici azeri di RFE/RL, conosciuta come Radio Azadliq, sono stati perquisiti il 26 dicembre dagli investigatori del pubblico ministero confiscando documenti, file e attrezzature, prima di sigillare i locali”.


Com’era prevedibile, la guerra verbale tra Stati Uniti e Azerbaigian s’è intensificata dopo il giro di vite su RFE/RL. L’ex-presidente di RFE/RL Jeffrey Gedmin ha condannato l’azione di Aliev contro “una delle poche agenzie di stampa indipendenti rimaste in Azerbaigian” nei termini più forti possibili e ha avvertito l’amministrazione Obama che la visione di Washington di un’Europa “libera e unita” è a rischio. “Tutta l’Europa libera” è un codice spesso usato ma raramente spiegato, perché in pratica significa il consolidamento di un’Europa unita controllata da Bruxelles per conto degli Stati Uniti. L’Azerbaigian supportava la visione di Washington, ma al momento cruciale il regime Aliev è più interessato alla sua sopravvivenza che a un'”Europa unita e libera”. Anche se le tensioni sono forti al momento, resta da vedere se l’Azerbaigian davvero “snobberà l’occidente”, come alcuni suggeriscono:


L’Azerbaijan snobba l’occidente


Questi eventi sono stati segnalati all’estero soprattutto come ulteriore restrizione del già piccolo spazio in Azerbaigian per le opinioni alternative. Ed è così, suggerendo anche un drastico cambio geopolitico nell’instabile regione del Mar Caspio: crescente ostilità del governo azero verso Washington, con l’attacco a RFE/RL dopo mesi di retorica estrema anti-occidentale. Alti funzionari governativi azeri hanno accusato l’ambasciatore degli Stati Uniti a Baku di “gravi interferenze” e l’ex-ministro degli Esteri della Svezia Carl Bildt di essere una spia statunitense. Ai primi di dicembre, il capo dello staff presidenziale, Ramiz Mehdiev, ha pubblicato un articolo di 13000 parole sostenendo che la CIA escogita cambi di regime nello spazio post-sovietico (le cosiddette rivoluzioni colorate) definendo gli attivisti per i diritti umani in Azerbaigian “quinta colonna” degli Stati Uniti”.


Vale la pena sottolineare che la stampa israeliana suona l’allarme sul presunto cambio della politica estera dell’Azerbaigian, ma l’ambasciatore d’Israele a Baku Rafael Harpaz ha affrontato tali articoli dopo pochi giorni placando i timori e sottolineando che nulla cambia nei rapporti azerbaigiano-israeliani. Pertanto, i rapporti allarmistici nei media occidentali sul cambio geopolitico di Baku devono essere presi con cautela. Gli Stati Uniti non accetteranno di perdere l’Azerbaigian, considerando che la vicina Armenia è ufficialmente membro dell’Unione economica eurasiatica (UEE) cementando i legami con Mosca. Dopo i falliti tentativi d’impedire l’adesione dell’Armenia al blocco commerciale guidato dalla Russia, Washington apparentemente non è più interessata a “far progredire valori, pratiche e istituzioni democratici” in Armenia e decidendo di chiudere l’ufficio locale del National Democratic Institute (NDI), per “problemi finanziari”, ovviamente una scusa:


NDI sospende le attività in Armenia


L’ufficio armeno del National Democratic Institute (NDI) degli Stati Uniti, che opera in Armenia dal 1995, sospende le operazioni per problemi finanziari, ha detto Gegam Sargsjan, capo dell’ufficio, il 7 gennaio. Il NDI non riceve finanziamenti dal suo sponsor principale, l’USAID (Agenzia degli Stati Uniti per lo sviluppo internazionale), quindi da marzo 2015 l’ufficio blocca le attività “per un tempo indefinito, fino a quando i fondi saranno disponibili” ha detto Sargsjan. “L’USAID sospese il finanziamento del NDI un anno fa e poi ricevemmo fondi dal National Endowment for Democracy degli USA” ha detto Gegam Sargsjan aggiungendo che oggi USAID preferisce sostenere organizzazioni locali piuttosto che internazionali, mentre “per la NDI non sono una priorità attuale“.

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Traduzione di Alessandro Lattanzio – SitoAurora

vendredi, 16 janvier 2015

Washington is Going to Rely on NGOs in Central Asia

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Author: Vladimir Odintsov

Washington is Going to Rely on NGOs in Central Asia

Ex: http://journal-neo.org

The United States and their satellites have been using nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) for the preparation and implementation of “color revolutions” in North Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet countries extensively, which has made numerous headlines across international media. The consequences of such “democratic activity” carried out by Washington can be clearly seen in Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, and in several other countries, where this strategy has led to the creation of uncontrolled chaos.

The tactics of Washington’s NGOs can be summed out by a famous quote of retired US Lieutenant Colonel Ralph Peters: “Hollywood is “preparing the battlefield,” and burgers precede bullets. The flag follows trade.”

As a rule, the target of these “cover activities” carried out by NGOs is the struggle for energy markets, or the fight against political opponents, among which the White House highlights Russia, China and Iran. This much explains the latest developments in Hong Kong. Washington has effectively created a network of NGOs there that promote American interests under the pretext of promoting “democracy”, which operate by using social networks for spreading their agenda. This same pattern has been duplicated numerous times across the globe to attempt regime change in countries that the White House perceives as a threat to US dominance.

To sponsor these activities Washington has been allocating billions of dollars annually through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) – the organization responsible for countless coups around the world along with the CIA, on par with numerous private foundations. It’s no coincidence then that in Russia alone there were a total of 650 foreign NGOs back in 2012, that were receiving up to one billion dollars a year, with 20 million handed out by Western diplomatic missions directly.

So, if we are to focus on the post-Soviet region, in recent years Western NGOs have been particularly active in the states of Central Asia, desperate in their strive to trigger “color revolutions” wherever possible. The avid interest of Washington towards this particular region is caused by a number of factors, including considerable deposits of natural resources along with the possibility to control the flow of those by taking a firm footing in the region, such as in destabilized Afghanistan. But the “key” factor behind Washington’s thinking is the ability to influence the geopolitical future and stability of the entire Asian continent and Russia. That is why the territory of the Central Asian region is considered by US think tanks an area of choice for projecting political influence on Russia and China, launching military campaigns against Afghanistan and potentially Iran. In this case, the United States seeks to break the Central Asian states away from Russian influence, by extensive use of international organizations and NGOs.

After failing to achieve the redrawing of the political landscape in Central Asia after the so-called “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and the consequent shift of focus of the White House to “democratic political reforms” in Ukraine and in Hong Kong, the US State Department and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2011 have sharply reduced the funding of their ongoing “projects” in Central Asia, by dropping it to 126 million dollars from and initial 436 million. In 2013 the funding was cut even further to 118 million dollars (a 12% decrease of in comparison to 2012).

However, due to the increasing political and economic strength of Russia along with the active participation of the Central Asian states in the Customs Union project implemented by the Russian Federation and a number of other integration initiatives, the White House has made significant adjustments to its policies in the countries of Central Asia. Therefore, to “promote access to free unbiased” media, USAID has allocated an additional 3.8 million dollars to NGOs in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2014.

At the same time George Soros has spent a whooping total of 80 million dollars on “democratic reforms” in Kyrgyzstan over the past 11 years . A November 2014 trip by the 84-year-old investor and philanthropist to Kyrgyzstan has attracted a lot of media attention, along with the “considerable” financial assistance he has provided to non-governmental organizations to the “revolution” in Ukraine. George Soros has clearly expressed his anti-Russian position at a press conference of the International Crisis Group in Brussels, where he urged Europe to, “wake up.” That is why his visit to Kyrgyzstan was regarded by most foreign observers as an attempt to disrupt the entry of Kyrgyzstan into the Customs Union and its rapprochement with Russia. It’s no coincidence that all through his visit the US Embassy in Kyrgyzstan witnessed numerous demonstrations, where protesters urged local NGOs to abstain from taking the “blood money”.

It is obvious that Washington will carry on its attempts to actively pursue its own interests in Central Asia through non-governmental organizations, by making sure to take every possible opportunity to increase its influence over the internal affairs of the former Soviet territories. Moreover, bringing loyal leaders to power in those states is believed to be a top priority.

It’s obvious that the White House will also attempt to exploit religious factors as a means of destabilization, especially since it has already tested the “Islamic State” scenario along with its satellites in the Gulf elsewhere, proving to be quite effective in spreading chaos not only in a specific region, but also worldwide.

Vladimir Odintsov is a political commentator, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
First appeared:
http://journal-neo.org/2015/01/08/rus-npo-ssha-i-tsentral-naya-aziya/

mardi, 13 janvier 2015

Will Turkmenistan Become a Shield in Jihadists’ Way?

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Author: Stanislav Ivanov

Will Turkmenistan Become a Shield in Jihadists’ Way?

After withdrawal of NATO’s forces from Afghanistan increasing radical Islamist activity is expected in that country and in the region as a whole. Washington and its Western allies failed to inflict any serious defeat on the Afghan Taliban movement, moreover, the latter could be able not only to retain its control over a number of Afghan provinces but also developed quite close ties with the Pakistani Taliban movement and the leaders of the Islamic caliphate created in the territory of Syria and Iraq. Today, the so-called “jihadists” seek to maximally expand the area of their influence, including by penetrating to the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Experts and political scientists are more actively discussing the possibility of repeating the “Arab spring” events – this time in the countries of Central Asia and in Azerbaijan.

These states have some features in common with those countries which have fallen victims to the “Arab spring”. Can Turkmenistan become such weak link or will it, on the contrary, become a shield in the way of “jihadists” to the countries of Central Asia and to the Caucasus?

Turkmenistan occupies a special place in the regional safety system. The characteristic feature of its post-Soviet history is its constant neutrality status, recognized by the United Nations, the consequence of the same being the country’s non-participation in any military and political alliances and associations. The absence of potential outside adversaries allows the country’s govermnent to keep insignificant – in terms of their size and strength – armed forces. Ashgabat’s equidistance from all global and regional centers and the country’s stocks of hydrocarbons of global significance allow it also to successfully build mutually profitable trade and economic relations with more than one hundred states of the world; at that, the countries which have become Turkmenistan’s key trade partners are Iran (21.7 %), Russia (18 %), Turkey (16.4 %), and China (10.8 %). The main export item for Turkmenistan remains natural gas, however there is a tendency to diversification of the country’s exports by increasing production of oil and oil products, electric energy, construction materials, cotton and other goods. The USA and EU countries show interest in development of trade economic as well as other relations with Turkmenistan. There are plans to build new gas pipelines, in addition to the existing North – South and East – West pipelines, in particular, TAPI gas pipeline 1,735 km long from Turkmenistan to Afganistan, Pakistan and India. Its project capacity is 33 bn cubic meters of gas per year, the estimated project cost is USD 7.9 bn.

Turkey plays a special role in Turkmenistan’s bilateral relations with other countries. The similarity of culture, language, religion, traditions, morals and customs favour further close approach of the states in all areas. In particular, during the visit of the Turkish President R.Erdogan to Ashgabat in November 2014 attention was drawn to the fact that more than 600 Turkish enterprises and companies work successfully in the country, while the overall cost of the project realized by Turkish companies in Turkmenistan amounted USD 42 bn.

Certainly, the quite fierce competition remains among the interested countries for the Turkmenian hydrocarbons and the commodity and services market; however this competition is not accompanied by attempts to strengthen any particular country’s, or an alliance of countries, military influence here. The competition is mostly limited to lobbying some gas pipeline routes (to the EU, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, China, India). It looks like all the international players are satisfied with Ashgabat’s neutrality in foreign policy and its accentuated neutral status. The Turkmenian government believes that the country will manage to remain on the sidelines in case of any regional or international conflict, thereby retaining its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

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However, it is becoming more and more clear in Ashgabat that the threat to the country’s security may come from non-state actors, too, in the first turn from foreign Islamic groups. It has been established that Turkmen fight together with Afghan and Pakistani Taliban militants in Syria and Iraq, and that “The Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan” and “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan” have been created in the territory of Northern Waziristan (Pakistan). News have come that “the Turkmenian Taliban” has taken under their control almost all the territories in which the TAPI gas pipeline can potentially be constructed (parts in the Afghan and Pakistani territories).

In 2014 attacks on the Turkmenian border control posts in the Afghan-Turkmen border became more often. Hundreds of peaceful citizens were killed, some of them beheaded, their property was looted, their cattle was driven away, dozens of houses were burnt. The Turkmen border control guards not only suffer losses, but they are taken prisoners by the Islamists. One can speak about beginning of “sweeping” operations on the part of the militants, who are ousting the local populations from the areas adjoining the border and preparing corridors for further breaking through deep inside the country. They are controlling the automobile road going along the Turkmenian border and are able, at any moment, to march both to the Murgaba (Bagdis) valley and Andkhoya (Faryab) district. The Afghan and Turkmenian authorities are no longer controlling their common border, in terms of drug trafficking, smuggling and penetrating of Islamic groups, nor are they able to control the movement of local cattle breeders for grazing their cattle on both sides of the border. One should bear in mind that in the period when the Basmachi movement was defeated in the USSR in the 20th-30th years of the last century, a number of large and influential Turkmenian clans fled to Afghanistan, to the regions near the border. They are still lodging claims for return of their ancestral lands, being the subject of constant blackmail against the government of Turkmenistan. The issue has acquired special importance as two large natural gas deposits – the Serakh and Murgab oases – have proved to be near the lands claimed by the Afghan Turkmen. So, there is the ever increasing possibility of attack of Afghan Talibs and “jihadists” of every stripe and colour on Turkmenistan in spring of 2015. The many peoples who are permanently residing there – Hazara, Turkmens, Kurds, Uzbeks and Tajiks – are joined, as of late, by increasing numbers of persons originating from other provinces of Afghanistan and foreign “jihadists”. It is expected that they may invade Turkmenistan from Bagdis velayat along the Murgab River valley. Notwithstanding the fact that the area in this place has strong engineering fortifications and a border guards units is staying there, the Murgab valley is attractive for the militants as the most efficient route for subsequent march to the north. There is civil population there (who might be taken hostages), a lot of cattle, product warehouse, good roads, a large number of vehicles and even arms. From Takhta-Bazar, one can quite easily arrive, by an asphalted road, to the strategically important city of Iolotan, near which is located a large natural gas and oil deposit Galkynysh site – the resource base for “TransCaspiy” to Europe. It is from this place exactly that the new strategic “East – West” gas pipeline towards the Caspian sea-shore.

The Turkmenian government, though with some delay, is reacting to the increased threat from Afghanistan. Prompt measures were taken to strengthen the border control and other defense and law enforcement agencies at this part of the state border, new fortifications are being built. A ditch, four meters wide and five meters deep, has been dug along the Afghan border, reinforced with metal meshwork shields.

Along with that, contacts with potential allies in the fight against Islamists are being developed. Thus, on September 14, 2014, General Khossein Dehgan, the Iranian Minister of Defense, paid a visit to Turkmenistan for coordination of the two countries’ efforts in the sphere of regional security. The main topic of the Iran-Turkmen negotiations became the interaction of Turkmenistan and Iran in case of invasion of “jihadist” militants to Turkmenistan from Afghanistan. The Iranian side expressed its readiness to carry out, within the nearest period, maneuvers of the Iranian army in its north-east province, inviting the Turkmen military as observers.

On September 11, 2014, the President of Turkmenistan G.M.Berdymukhammedov suddenly arrived in Dushanbe to participate in the SCO summit as a guest of honour, though the country headed by him is not a member of this Organisation and earlier has demonstratively distanced itself from any all-regional initiatives. In the course of the summit, the President of Turkmenistan met the Presidents of Iran, Mongolia, the Chairman of the PRC as well as representatives of India and Pakistan. It may be suggested that regional security issues were discussed at these meetings as well.

In August 2014, the Turkmenian government effected “de-Islamisation” of its education system. In the framework of implementation of the bilateral treaty On Cooperation in the Sphere of Education, concluded between the governments of Turkmenistan and Turkey on August 15, 2014, were closed the Turkmenian-Turkish school and the Turkmenian-Turkish University. The Turkish school was left only for children of the Embassy employees and employees of the Turkish companies working in Turkmenistan. The University was converted into a national university, its curricula were revised and substantial (in terms of local estimates) fee was charged for studies.

At the same time, the new treaty concluded between Turkmenistan and Turkey in the sphere of education has fully eliminated any non-state interference. Subjects related to religious studies have been removed from school curricula, the prayer hours (which were obligatory between the classes) have been abolished. All the innovations in the education of children, introduced on the initiative of the well-known Turkish religious scholar Fethullah Gulen, have been liquidated.

Therefore, the government of Turkmenistan is taking preventive measures to defend the state against any possible attempts on its sovereignty on the part of radical Islamist groups from the Afghan direction. Notwithstanding the still preserved authoritarian character of the government in place and some elements of the “Arab spring” inherent in it, one should not expect violent overthrowing of the government and “jihadist” expansion to Turkmenistan in the next few years. The country has formed quite sustained traditions of secular power to which, as of today, there is no visible alternative or organized opposition. The majority of Turkmens practice moderate-tradition Islam, the 5 million population of the country is diversified as per tribal characteristics and lives in a common territory, the necessary life-sustaining minimal wages for all categories of citizens is sustained, the government pays attention to development of industry, infrastructure, housing construction, improvement of education and healthcare systems and other vitally important aspects of social life.

In case of direct invasion of “jihadists” to Turkmenistan, Ashgabat relies on urgent assistance on the part of authoritative international organizations, first of all the United Nations Organisation, as well as great powers (Russia, China, the USA) and its regional partners (Turkey, Iran, etc.).

Stanislav Ivanov, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, PhD in history and columnist for the “New Eastern Outlook”.

 

mardi, 23 décembre 2014

Gladio B and the Battle for Eurasia

 

Gladio B and the Battle for Eurasia

TRANSCRIPT AND SOURCES: http://www.corbettreport.com/?p=12947

‘Operation Gladio B’--the continuation of the old NATO Gladio program--covers a tangled web of covert operatives, billionaire Imams, drug running, prison breaks and terror strikes. Its goal: the destabilization of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In this presentation to Studium Generale in Groningen on November 19, 2014, James Corbett lifts the lid on this operation, its covert operatives, and the secret battle for the Eurasian heartland.

mercredi, 19 novembre 2014

Le plan secret de Poutine pour détruire l'OTAN

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Le plan secret de Poutine pour détruire l'OTAN

Auteur : Tyler Durden
 
 
Ex: http://zejournal.mobi

Le Stratège Poutine à la manette

Les 11 et 12 septembre derniers s’est tenue la réunion d’une organisation dont la plupart des américains n’ont jamais entendu parler. La couverture des médias grands public était à peu près inexistante.

La réunion s’est tenue à Dushanbe, la capitale du Tadjikistan, un pays que peu d’occidentaux sauraient situer correctement sur une carte. Mais vous pouvez parier votre dernier rouble que Vladimir Poutine sait exactement où se trouve ce pays. Car le groupe qui s’est réuni là-bas est le bébé du président russe. Il s’agit de l’organisation de coopération de Shanghai, constituée de six états membres : la Russie, la Chine, le Kazakhstan, le Kyrgyzstan, le Tadjikistan, et l’Ouzbekistan.

L’organisation de coopération de Shanghai (OCS), a été fondée en 2001 pour donner une réponse collective à l’extrémisme et assurer la sécurité des frontières. Mais son véritable but est plus large. Poutine la voit dans un contexte plus vaste comme un contrepoids à l’OTAN (une position que l’OCS ne nie du reste pas). Sa ligne de conduite officielle est de promouvoir le non-alignement, la non confrontation, et la non interférence avec les politiques des autres pays mais ses membres conduisent des exercices militaires conjoints.

Pourquoi devons-nous porter attention à cette réunion au milieu de nulle part ? Parce qu’évidemment, tout ce qu’entreprennent de manière conjointe la Chine et la Russie justifie notre attention. Et il y a beaucoup à dire à ce sujet.

Depuis la création de l’OCS, la Russie a avancé précautionneusement, afin que le groupe ne devienne pas un cheval de Troie pour l’expansion de la Chine dans ce qu’elle considère comme son espace stratégique, l’Asie Centrale. Dans le même temps, Poutine a noué de nouvelles alliances partout dans le monde aussi vite qu’il a pu. S’il veut contrecarrer l’hégémonie globale US, il aura besoin d’autant d’alliances que possible.

De nombreux observateurs ont prédit que la réunion de Dushanbe serait historique. Ils s’attendaient à ce que l’organisation s’ouvre à de nouveaux membres. Cependant, cette réunion a été focalisée sur la situation en Ukraine. Les membres de l’organisation ont soutenu les positions russes et apporté leur soutien à la poursuite des pourparlers dans le pays. Ils ont salué les accords de Minsk et l’initiative du président russe en faveur de la paix.

Cependant, l’idée d’inclure de nouveaux membres est passée à la trappe. De nombreux pays cherchent à rejoindre l’organisation depuis des années. Maintenant, avec la présidence tournante de l’organisation passée à Moscou, et la tenue du prochain sommet en juillet 2015 à Ufa en Russie, les conditions seront favorables à une expansion de l’organisation l’été prochain, a déclaré Poutine.

A cette fin, les participants au sommet de Dushanbe ont signé un document commun qui aborde les questions suivantes : « un mémorandum sur les obligations des états candidats pour obtenir le statut d’état membre de l’OCS », et «sur la procédure d’octroi du statut d’état membre de l’OCS. »

Ceci est extrêmement important aussi bien pour la Russie que pour les occidentaux car les nations désireuses de rejoindre l’OCS sont des acteurs géopolitiques majeurs : l’Inde et le Pakistan. Et un autre acteur majeur attend également de rejoindre l’organisation : l’Iran.

En expliquant le report de l’admission de ces pays, l’assistant du président Poutine, Yuri Ushakov, a fait une déclaration très franche. Il a dit aux médias russes que cette expansion était prématurée à ce moment là, à cause des difficultés potentielles liées à l’acrimonie entre la Chine et l’Inde, et l’Inde et le Pakistan, mais également aux sanctions occidentales contre l’Iran. Ces sources de conflits auraient pu affaiblir l’alliance, ce que la Russie veux éviter.

Amener à la même table des pays antagonistes requerra de délicates manoeuvres diplomatiques, mais il s’agit d’un exercice dans lequel Poutine excelle (qui d’autre a réussi à maintenir d’excellentes relations à la fois avec l’Iran et Israël ?).

Comme toujours, Poutine n’a pas une réflexion à court terme.

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Les priorités de la présidence russe sont les suivantes : renforcer le rôle de l’OCS pour la sécurité régionale, porter des projets économiques multilatéraux majeurs, améliorer les liens culturels et humanitaires entre les nations membres, et dessiner une approche globale aux problèmes mondiaux. Il prépare également le développement stratégique de l’OCS pour la période 2015-2025, et pense que ces objectifs devraient être finalisés pour le prochain sommet.

Nous devrions prêter attention à ce qui se déroule au sein de l’OCS. L’Inde et le Pakistan vont rejoindre l’organisation, et l’Iran suivra peu après, ce sera un tournant majeur du jeu géopolitique.

Poutine est en train de prendre le leadership d’une alliance internationale qui comptera quatre des dix états les plus peuplés au monde, le population combinée des pays membres comptera près de 40 % de la population mondiale avec presque 3 milliards de personnes. Elle englobera les deux économies mondiales les plus dynamiques. Avec l’Iran, ses membres contrôleront près de la moitié des réserves de gaz naturel. Le développement des réseaux de gazoducs et de pipelines d’Asie vont doper les pays de la région sur le plan économique et vont les rapprocher plus étroitement.

Si Poutine suit cette voie, l’OCS ne deviendra pas seulement une rivale de l’OTAN, mais pourra façonner une nouvelle structure financière qui entrera directement en compétition avec le FMI et la Banque Mondiale. La nouvelle banque de développement des BRICS, lancée l’été dernier au Brésil, était une première étape dans cette direction. Et cela conduira a détrôner le dollar comme monnaie de réserve internationale avec des conséquences catastrophiques pour l’économie US.

Comme je l’ai dit dans The Colder War, je pense qu’il s’agit du but ultime de Poutine : mener un assaut contre le dollar qui ramène les états-unis au rang d’une nation ordinaire… et dans le même processus, élever la Russie le plus haut possible.

Ce qui s’est passé au Tadjikistan cette année et ce qui se passera à Ufa l’été prochain, voilà des événements réellement capitaux.

 - Source : Tyler Durden

mercredi, 29 octobre 2014

Water Pressures in Central Asia

Water Pressures in Central Asia

International Crisis Group

Ex: http://moderntokyotimes.com

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Water has long been a major cause of conflict in Central Asia. Two states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have a surplus; the other three say they do not get their share from the region’s great rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, which slice across it from the Tien Shan, Pamir Mountains, and the Hindu Kush to the Aral Sea’s remains. Pressures are mounting, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The population in Central Asia has increased by almost ten million since 2000, and limited arable land is being depleted by over-use and outdated farming methods. Extensive corruption and failing infrastructure take further toll, while climate change is likely to have long-term negative consequences. As economies become weaker and states more fragile, heightened nationalism, border disputes, and regional tensions complicate the search for a mutually acceptable solution to the region’s water needs. A new approach that addresses water and related issues through an interlocking set of individually more modest bilateral agreements instead of the chimera of a single comprehensive one is urgently needed.

The root of the problem is the disintegration of the resource-sharing system the Soviet Union imposed on the region until its collapse in 1991. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan provided water to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in summer and received Kazakh, Turkmen and Uzbek coal, gas and electricity in winter. The system had broken down by the late-1990s, and a plethora of bilateral and regional agreements and resolutions concluded in that decade failed to fix it. The concerns Crisis Group identified in 2002 – inadequate infrastructure, poor water management and outdated irrigation methods – remain unaddressed, while the security environment is bleaker.

Regional leaders seem disinclined to cooperate on any of their main problems. Suspicion is growing between the most directly affected countries, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Personal relations between Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Uzbek President Islam Karimov have been icy for years, and Karimov and his ministers are increasingly prone to make bellicose statements. International partners, including Russia, the European Union (EU) and the U.S., say they can do little if the countries remain fixated on a narrow interpretation of national interests. Differences over upstream hydropower projects require intensive, high-level resolution. Though some localised efforts to improve water supply have worked, usually with donor aid, corruption has undermined more ambitious ones. Yet, the failure of the Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek governments to modernise water-dependent sectors such as energy and agriculture increases their mutual dependence.

For all its complexity, the water issue is probably the one that offers some opportunity for solution. As a Swiss water specialist observed, “water can be a driver of conflict but it can also be a driver of peace”. It is an objective problem, and equitable distribution and a concomitant energy exchange would produce tangible benefits for all. Removal of the water factor from the more intractable problems of borders and enclaves, meanwhile, might mitigate conflicts and perhaps even help solve them. Improved water infrastructure and management projects could thus be crucial for building peace and political stability, while promoting development and economic growth.

Attempts at comprehensive regional solutions have foundered on mistrust. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (and their international backers) should act now in the border areas of the Ferghana Valley to end the annual cycle of competition and conflict over water by dividing the water issue into more manageable portions – seeking gradual, step-by-step solutions along conceptual and geographical lines rather than one all-inclusive resource settlement. If Uzbekistan will not participate, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan should work bilaterally. Meanwhile, high-level mediation should be sought to address Uzbekistan’s objections to upstream hydropower projects.

There is no guarantee this would work, but it could give these three states an opportunity to modernise infrastructure and the management of water resources as well as train a new generation of technical specialists. The agreements would also set a modest precedent for other spheres in which cooperation is sorely needed and might help defuse tensions in the region, while improving the grim living conditions of most of its population.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To develop a modern, corruption-free, and efficient water management system in the region firewalled from other disputes between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

To the governments of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the UN and the donor community, including Russia, the European Union (EU) and China:

  1. Recognise that the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers should be the subject of separate water-sharing agreements.
  2. Promote and mediate individual bilateral water and energy sharing agreements between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, pending a comprehensive agreement on their management.

To the donor community, including Russia, the EU and China:

  1. Expand infrastructure modernisation programs:
  2. a) in urban areas regarding water meters and improved sanitation; and
  3. b) in agricultural areas regarding modern techniques such as drip irrigation.
  4. Prioritise water issues at the highest levels of engagement with the Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek governments and use international and local media to publicise the need for progress.
  5. Work with the smallest units of government, or directly with local communities, to mitigate corruption; and make further funding conditional on the implementation of anti-corruption measures.
  6. Build energy sector reform, including anti-corruption measures, into financing plans for large hydropower projects.

To the governments of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan:

  1. Commit to resolving border demarcation problems without using water or energy as a coercive factor; facilitate cross-border cooperation between police forces and form a tripartite intra-regional council to oversee day-to-day management of water and land resources parallel to high-level border delimitation negotiations.
  2. Investigate and prosecute corruption and misuse of donor money.
  3. Embark on large-scale public education programs highlighting the extent of water wastage.
  4. Ask donors to design and implement cross-border economic development projects focusing on border and enclave issues, including the management and maintenance of shared water resources for agriculture.

Bishkek/Brussels, 11 September 2014

Europe and Central Asia Report N°233

The International Crisis Group kindly allows Modern Tokyo Times to publish their esteemed articles based on important research. Please check the website of this highly valued international organization at http://www.crisisgroup.org/

https://twitter.com/CrisisGroup International Crisis Group on twitter

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/233-water-pressures-in-central-asia.aspx

Asia, Energy Issues, Geopolitics

mardi, 01 avril 2014

The U.S. Empire Is Trying Desperately To Contain the Eurasian Alliance

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The U.S. Empire Is Trying Desperately To Contain the Eurasian Alliance of Russia, China, Central Asian Nations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan

By

Ex: http://www.lewrockwell.com

The U.S. and its puppets, especially the E.U. and Nato, have been trying to weaken the rebuilding Russian empire as much as possible to contain it, while maintaining the  U.S. Global Empire.

This has become a vital, crucial goal because of the rapid growth of Chinese power and the ever closer Alliance of Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Central Asia, Pakistan, etc.

The U.S. and E.U. are desperate to stop Russia from rebuilding its vast Central Asian states within the Russian Federation and this new Alliance, especially because of the vast Caspian Sea oil and gas. The E.U. is highly dependent on Russia for gas and on Russia, Iraq, Iran and the pro-Russian Caspian Sea powers, especially Kazakhstan. The Russian move into the Black Sea is another major step in that direction. Kazakhstan publicly supported the Russian move to reunite with the Crimea. Kazakhstan is the great prize, with 30% of its population  Russian and a vast border with Mother Russia. Russia is probably not at this time trying to reunite Kazakhstan with Russia, since that would involve many more problems, but simply to keep it as a close ally, as the Ukraine was until the violent overthrow of the Kiev government by the U.S. supported coup.

Russia, Iran, Iraq, and their Central Asian allies are close to a vast oligopoly on the oil and gas exports of the world, especially to the E.U., U.K., China, India, etc.

Saudi Arabia is desperate to break the growing Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hizbollahp-Russian-Central Asian power block. Right now it is trying desperately to build its own military forces to offset the U.S. withdrawal from the region, but that is absurd. In the long term, Saudi Arabia will align with Russia-China-Iran-Central Asia or be overthrown from within by those who will become reasonable.

China, now firmly in the Russian-Central Asia-Iran-Iraq block with gas lines from Russia, etc., is moving forcefully into all of the South China Sea to control oil and gas there. The U.S. is desperate to stop that, but China keeps moving out.

All of that puts the dying U.S. Empire on a collision course with the vast Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Central Asian Alliance. Pakistan has become very anti-U.S. because of the U.S. attacks in Pakistan and is allying more and more with China. Even India is working more and more closely with Iran and its allies to get the gas they need. Just yesterday the president of Iran spoke in Afghanistan calling for a great regional entente, working together more and more closely. That is the likely route for Iranian oil and gas to India.

Ultimately, the U.S. Empire must withdraw from its vast over-stretch to save itself financially and economically, politically and militarily.

The E.U. knows that, so Germany’s Prime Minister talks privately with Putin in German and Russian about the American Global Crisis. [She knows Russian and he knows German, so it's easy.] Germany, the E.U. and Russia are moving toward a long run understanding once the crippled U.S. implodes financially or withdraws to save itself. The CEO of Siemens, the giant and vital German technology corporation, has just visited with Putin in Russia and made public statements of strong plans to continue working with Russia very closely. Other German CEO’s have done the same, acting as informal reassurances from the Prime Minister that her public words going along with the U.S. more or less do not mean any kind of break with the close relations with Russia.

lundi, 02 décembre 2013

Tajikistan remains of highest strategic value for Russia and India

Tajikistan remains of highest strategic value for Russia and India

 

Relations with Russia are of a dual nature, although it is believed that Tajikistan is one of the main allies in the region. Photo: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon (L) and Vladimir Putin. Source: Olesya Kurlyaeva/RG

Few were surprised that acting head of the state President Emomali Rahmon won the Tajikistan presidential elections with 83.6 percent of the votes. Experts believe that the courses taken by Emomali Rahmon in the last ten years will continue. This means that the coming years will be very difficult for both the president and his country.

A complete economic collapse in Tajikistan and instability in the neighboring Afghanistan, which the U.S. military will partially vacate next year, may lead to internal disturbances in the republic. To keep the situation under control Rahmon is trying to follow a multi-vector foreign policy, relying, in extreme cases, for outside help.

Relations with Russia are of a dual nature, although it is believed that Tajikistan is one of the main allies in the region. The republic accommodates the 201st Russian military base, which will remain there until 2042 according to the agreement. However, the ratification of the relevant treaty was delayed by the parliament, controlled by Rahmon for a whole year. All this time, Tajikistan extracted various concessions out of Russia.

The Ayni conondrum

Rahmon promised to rent out the Ayni military airfield near the Tajik capital to India, Russia and the US. All three countries are interested in obtaining the lease of the site. However, the president’s "multi-vector" policy complicated the situation so much that now the potential tenants are unclear about the status of the base.

India spent a significant amount of money over the last decade developing Ayni, hoping that it would be a major base for the strategically important region. New Delhi is very serious on the Ayni air base project to gain a strategic foothold in Central Asia and improve its C3I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence) network to fortify its operations in Afghanistan and keep a close eye on Pakistan. India has however met with Russian resistance as Moscow has been unrelenting in its stand that it doesn’t want foreign powers to deploy fighter aircraft in its backyard and a former territory.

Ayni Air Force Base, also known as Gissar Air Base, is a military air base in Tajikistan, just 10 km west of the capital Dushanbe, which served as a major military base of the Soviet Union in the Cold War era.

The situation with Ayni shows that Tajikistan is not really in position to sign a consistent and binding agreement and that Dushanbe may be left with nothing.  “Rahmon will seek preferences in the supply of arms in lieu of renting out the base,” says Azhdar Kurtov, an expert of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies.

Dushanbe’s bargaining chips

In exchange for the ratification of the agreement on the 201st Russian military base, Moscow promised to expand a free education program in Russian military academies for citizens of Tajikistan and to provide $200 million worth of arms to the republic. In addition, Moscow has modified work permit laws for citizens of Tajikistan, allowing them to work in Russia for up to 3 years. This is relevant for Dushanbe - according to the Russian Federal Migration Service there are more than 1.2 million citizens of Tajikistan in Russia, who this year alone remitted $3.5 billion to their home country.

However, even such a dangerous dependence on Moscow does not discourage Dushanbe from demonstrating its activity in relation to other countries. For example, until recently it seemed that the US was paying considerable attention to Tajikistan. For a while, the United States and NATO were sizing the option to withdraw troops from Afghanistan via Tajikistan, but Pakistan’s conditions regarding this issue were far more suitable for the West.

Such behaviour periodically makes experts say that Tajikistan is slipping away from Russia’s influence to China, India, Iran, or even the United States. Elena Kuzmina, Manager of the Sector for Economic Development at the Institute of the economy of post-Soviet states recognizes that in the past two years, in fact, it was China that has become a major trading partner and investor in Tajikistan. Russia is only in the second place. Chinese investment accounted for 40 percent of total investments in the Tajik economy. In addition, China provides grants for the construction of infrastructure projects. With the support of the Celestial Empire, Tajikistan was able to implement large-scale projects in the energy and communication sectors.

“It would still be improper to say that Tajikistan is moving away from Russia,” says Kuzmina. There is cooperation between Moscow and Dushanbe in many areas. According to Kuzmina, it would be more accurate to say that Tajikistan has expanded the scope of its economic interests, and will continue to try to expand and diversify its cooperation with various countries.

Azhdar Kurtov also believes that there will be no sharp geopolitical fluctuations, not to mention a change of Dushanbe’s main external partner. “The republic has no oil or gas and because of the high-altitude terrain, production of other resources is more expensive.  Its geographical location does not allow the deployment of a large-scale construction, including, for example, transport communications, which Tajikistan has pinned high hopes on. Attempts to refocus on Iran by creating a union of three Persian-speaking countries (Tajikistan, Iran and Afghanistan), were not successful, “Kurtov said.

dimanche, 24 novembre 2013

Afghanistan occupato fino al 2024

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Afghanistan occupato fino al 2024

Immunità giudiziaria e libertà totale operativa per 15 mila militari Usa

Lorenzo Moore

Secondo la bozza di accordo tra governo di Washington e governo insediato a Kabul dagli occupanti, oggetto di discussione nei cinque giorni che dal 21 novembre vedranno riunita l’assemblea tribale afghana (Loya Jirga), le truppe Usa sono destinate a restare in Afghanistan fino al 2024. Nel documento di “security agreement”, che consta di 25 pagine, è chiaramente esposta la volontà Usa di restare con le proprie forze militari nei territori afghani occupati “in sostegno delle forze afghane di sicurezza”. Una volta firmato l’accordo, ben 15 mila militari, secondo quanto reso noto dalla Nbc, oltre a godere di “immunità” giudiziaria nei tribunali afghani, saranno chiamati di “assicurare la protezione” dell’Afghanistan fino al 2024, per 23 anni cioè dall’aggressione angloamericana del 2001, contro “le forze di al Qaida e i loro affiliati”, anche con interventi operativi “in zone civili e residenziali”, come già verbalmente richiesto dal segretario di Stato Usa John Kerry al presidente afghano Hamid Karzai. Il trattato potrà essere annullato soltanto con un preavviso di due anni. Sia la richiesta di immunità e la libera operatività contro i civili sono state dichiarate dagli Usa “condizioni essenziali”. In poche parole gli Usa hanno richiesto “mani totalmente libere” per il loro ruolo militare di occupazione. Come noto Obama aveva “promesso” il totale ritiro militare Usa dall’Afghanistan entro il 2014.


20 Novembre 2013 12:00:00 - http://www.rinascita.eu/index.php?action=news&id=22681

lundi, 18 novembre 2013

NATO’s Terror Campaign in Central Asia

 

NATO’s Terror Campaign in Central Asia

 

In this age of manufactured terror, one of the most vital regions on the global chessboard is also an area that few in the West know anything about: Central Asia.

This geostrategic and resource-rich area on the doorstep of China and Russia finds itself in the middle of an all out terror campaign. But, as key national intelligence whistleblowers are pointing out, these terrorists are working hand-in-glove with NATO.

This important GRTV Backgrounder was originally aired on Global Research TV on March 14, 2013.

Ever since the staged false flag attacks of 9/11, the US government and its complicit corporate media have focused their attention on fighting the shadowy, all-pervasive, all-powerful, ill-defined and undefeatable “Al Qaeda” enemy that is supposedly menacing the US and its allies at home and abroad. The term “Al Qaeda” of course is merely a cipher for “excuse to invade.” In the case of Afghanistan, for instance, the US used the threat of Al Qaeda as the excuse for their 12 year long invasion and occupation of the country. In Libya and Syria, the US and its allies are supporting those same self-described Al Qaeda-affiliated fighters. The ruse has long since become obvious.

Less obvious, then, because it has been taking place completely under the radar of media attention, is another front in the so-called war on terror: Central Asia and the Caucasus region. Encompassing the region surrounding the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, this area has long been identified as perhaps the most geostrategically vital part of the globe. It provides access to the exceptionally rich Caspian oil and gas deposits, hosts the “New Silk Road,” a vital trade route between China and Europe, and sits on the doorstep of China and Russia. And it just so happens to have a terrorist problem.

At first blush, it may seem odd that in this “age of terror” the American population has been told so little about the growing terrorist insurgency in Central Asia and the Caucasus. But when examined in the light of regional geopolitics, this deafening silence makes perfect sense.

Indications of how and why this region is so important come from numerous geostrategists, including Zbigniew Brzezinski, Obama’s acknowledged mentor and a key advisor to his administration. In his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard, Brzezinski identified the Central Asian / Caucasus region as part of a larger area he called “The Eurasian Balkans.”

The countries in this region, he wrote, are “of importance from the standpoint of security and historical ambitions to at least three of their most immediate and more powerful neighbors, namely, Russia, Turkey, and Iran, with China also signaling an increasing political interest in the region. But,” he continued, “the Eurasian Balkans are infinitely more important as a potential economic prize: an enormous concentration of natural gas and oil reserves is located in the region, in addition to important minerals, including gold.”

Brzezinski knew very well what he was writing about. As National Security Advisor under President Carter, he had overseenOperation Cyclone, the US government’s since-declassified plan to arm, train and fund Islamic radicals in Pakistan and Afghanistan to draw the Soviet Union into a protracted war in the region. This, famously, led to the foundation of what became known as Al Qaeda in the 1980s, a point that Brzezinski has since admitted and even bragged about, claiming that the creation of a “few stirred up Muslims” helped to bring down the Soviet Union.

It is no surprise, then, that Brzezinski went on to predict in his 1997 book that the first major war of the 21st century would take place in this region, which is exactly what happened with the NATO invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. And it is also no surprise that even NATO’s hand-picked Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, is now openly accusing the US of supporting the Taliban in the country to convince the public that they will need US protection after the planned troop withdrawal date in 2014.

Global Research contributor and Stop NATO International Director Rick Rozoff appeared on the Boiling Frogs Post podcast in 2011 to discuss this region and the overlap between NATO’s strategic interests and Islamic extremism.

It has long been understood that the terror operations in Chechnya and other key parts of the Central Asia and Caucasus region have been supported, funded and protected by NATO to help destabilize the region surrounding their main geopolitical rivals, Russia and China, in an operation very similar to Operation Cyclone in the 70s and 80s. This has, until now, remained mostly within the realm of speculation. But in a recent groundbreaking series of interviews on The Corbett Report, FBI whistleblower Sibel Edmonds has confirmed that this is, in fact, exactly what is happening.

If it is true that the people perish for lack of knowledge, perhaps it is nowhere more true than in the phoney, NATO-created war of terror. Without the understanding provided by Edmonds and others in identifying the Central Asia / Caucasus terror campaign as a NATO proxy war, the entire concept of Islamic terrorism becomes inscrutable to geopolitical analysis.

As this information will never be disseminated by the complicit corporate media, it is vitally important that the people take this task into their own hands by sharing this information with others and contributing to the analysis of the terror campaign being waged in the region.

The seeds of the next great world conflict are being sowed in Central Asia, on the doorstep of Russia and China, and regardless of whether or not this conflict, too, is being manipulated and managed behind the scenes, the lives of countless millions hang in the balance of the specter of that all-out war. Only an understanding of NATO’s active complicity in fostering and protecting these Muslim extremists can help break the tool of propaganda by which they will try to convince their population to acquiesce to such a war.

mercredi, 13 février 2013

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: Rising Menace

uzbekistan-asia-map.gif

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan:

Rising Menace

Aurobinda MAHAPATRA

Ex: http://www.strategic-culture.org/

 

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) has become a concern in Eurasian region. In January 2013 alone, the members of the extremist organization confronted security forces in Afghanistan on two instances during operations in Burkah district of Baghlan province. A government official in Tajiksitan declared on 28 January 2013 that police in Kubodiyen District in Khatlon Oblast detained six suspected members of IMU in past two months, while on 26 January 2013 another IMU suspect blew himself rather than surrendering to police. The Tajik Interior Minister, Ramazon Rahimov declared last month that the Tajik security forces killed one IMU suspect and arrested nine other suspects in the country’s north. One of the commanders of IMU, Abu Zar al-Burmi, a Pakistan national of Rohingya Burmese descent, called for jihad against Myanmar. Last year Myanmar witnessed violent clashes among Rohingya Muslims and Buddhists. Reports suggest that IMU has donned a new garb Islamic Movement of Turkestan in order to camouflage it earlier image.

IMU emerged aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its main aim was to establish Sharia based state and society in Uzbekistan and other parts of Central Asia. Its founders Tahir Yuldashev and Juma Namangani aimed at establishing a caliphate comprising former Soviet Central Asia and Xinjiang region of China. They challenged Islam Karimov regime and played active roles in promoting violence. Namangani was later killed in Afghanistan, while Yuldashev has shifted base to Waziristan area of Pakistan. Central Asian states were averse to its radical ideology, but IMU found a ready acceptance in the circles of Al Qaeda and Taliban. IMU not only got shelter and sustenance in Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas, but also contributed to proliferation of violent activities of these organizations.

As northern Afghanistan borders Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, it has become convenient for IMU to use porous borders and play havoc in Central Asia. Its cousins in Central Asia like Jundullah (soldiers of Allah) have recently been active in countries like Kazakhstan. Like IMU, the Jundullah has its base in border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan… As Afghanistan has populations of ethnic Uzbek and Tajik minorities, it has become convenient for these organizations to mobilize these people. Poverty and unemployment may have contributed to this rise of radicalism, but certainly propagation of extremist ideology plays a major role. Furthermore, the combination of these Central Asian organizations with international organizations like Al Qaeda, and Af-Pak organizations like Taliban and Haqqani network make them further lethal in conducting operations. Besides fermenting terrorist activities in Central Asia and Afghanistan, these Central Asian organizations have been alleged to have bombed Pakistani cities.

The departure of international forces from Afghanistan may help the war torn country to establish its own mechanisms of governance. But, it will be difficult to predict how far the indigenous government will be stable against the onslaught of the radical forces. The international forces have not been able to stem the rise of these forces. Taliban has already declared its plans of governance in its envisioned emirate of Afghanistan. In this venture of radicalization, forces like IMU come handy. Comparatively rich due to involvement in illegal poppy trade, Taliban and Haqqani network have used IMU operatives as surrogates and helpers. Reports suggest that IMU members, besides following the orders of Taliban and Haqqani, have also worked as bodyguards and helpers of top leaders of these organizations. There are also instances when members of these organizations interchange roles and perform activities for each other. If the return of the Taliban becomes an eventuality, the destructive role of IMU and Jundullah will certainly grow in Central Asia and surrounding regions.

International events of extremism and terrorism can not be completely separated. Radicalization of minorities in multiethnic and pluralistic societies is a core motive of Al Qaeda which, despite trumpets of its decimation, has raised its head not only in Afghanistan, but also in other parts of the world – in Libya, Syria, Mali, Myanmar and many other regions. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri was a key motivator of rebel activities in Libya and Syria. The collusion of Al Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan may emerge a bigger challenge to countries in Eurasia. Afghanistan is situated among many fault lines, and likely resurgence of Taliban will cause more harm than good. The current policy of Taliban is to hedge against the Karzai regime and buy time till international forces depart, so that it can with support of sympathetic powers seize Kabul. In such a scenario, the morale of IMU will not be boosted psychologically, but also materially. A Taliban government will have resources and foster IMU activities in proliferating ideology of radicalism through bombs.

As the IMU commander al-Burmi declared, the fire of extremism will spread like a forest fire if the Taliban returns to power. Afghanistan is surrounded by multiethnic and pluralistic states, which have ethnic based grievances. The ethnic minorities, currently under the regimes of secular democracies, will be easy targets of radical forces. The dreams of Caliphate of Turkestan or Caucasian Caliphate will be vigorously pursued with easy money coming from drug trafficking and charity money from some extremist regimes from different parts of the world.

The prospects of peace and stability in Afghanistan and its border areas do not appear bright in present scenario. This brings forth the urgency of international cooperation, which at present does not appear much in sight. Unless the rise of IMU and their patrons in Afghanistan is checkmated in time, the future war against extremism and terrorism will really be long winding for the countries of Eurasia.

vendredi, 02 mars 2012

Sven Hedin, la vita avventurosa del "Marco Polo" che veniva dal freddo

Ex: http://robertoalfattiappetiti.blogspot.com/

Sven Hedin, la vita avventurosa del "Marco Polo" che veniva dal freddo

 

Articolo di Luigi G. de Anna

Dal Secolo d'Italia del 24 febbraio 2012

Sessanta anni fa, il 26 novembre del 1952, moriva Sven Hedin (era nato il 19 febbraio del 1865), l'esploratore svedese ultimo grande rappresentante della "scoperta" occidentale in Asia. Diventato famoso per aver individuato le fonti dell'Indo e del Bramaputra, soffrì negli ultimi anni della sua vita dell'ostracismo conseguenza delle simpatie da lui nutrite per il nazionalsocialismo. Al contrario di altri suoi connazionali come August Andrée o N.E. Nordenskiöld (sarà proprio la vista del trionfo a Stoccolma di Nordenskiöld a spingerlo, aveva solo quindici anni, alla ferma determinazione di esplorare una parte del mondo), resterà affascinato non dai deserti dell'Artico ma da quelli dell'Asia. 

 
Nel 1889 termina gli studi intrapresi a Uppsala e a Berlino, dove era stato allievo del grande geografo Ferdinand von Richthofen. Nel 1890, dopo essere stato nominato attaché presso l'ambasciata di Svezia a Teheran, prende congedo per esplorare il Khurasan e il Turkestan cinese. Le prime, importanti spedizioni sono intraprese tra il 1893 e il 1909. Hedin raggiunge l'Asia centrale, l'Ural, il Pamir, il Tibet e la Cina, raccogliendo una immensa mole di dati geografici e cartografici (già in occasione del primo viaggio aveva disegnato ben 552 carte), ma anche geopolitici, che saranno di grande utilità per le potenze occidentali che in questi anni stanno attuando la loro penetrazione nell'Asia continentale. Il viaggio del 1893-1897 è quello che lo vide affrontare la "marcia della morte" fatta nel deserto di Taklimakan, dove la temperatura toccava i 63,5 gradi e dove due delle sue guide e tutti i cammelli morirono di sete. Riuscì a raggiungere un lago e a portare l'acqua alla sua guida oramai agonizzante, trasportandola nello stivale. Fu il primo occidentale a tornare da questo deserto.

Esplorò la regione del Pamir e dello Xinjiang fino a Lop Nur. Questo viaggio lo rese famoso, tanto che il britannico Geographical Journal lo definì il più grande esploratore dell'Asia dopo Marco Polo. Due anni più tardi, nel 1899, riparte con lo scopo di percorrere aree dell'Asia centrale ancora non tracciate nelle carte geografiche e di visitare il Tibet, fedele all'imperativo che si era dato "vai là dove nessuno è mai stato prima". Cercò di entrare a Lhasa travestito da mercante mongolo, camuffamento che però non ingannò le guardie della città che gli imposero di tornarsene se non voleva che gli tagliassero la testa. Raggiunse nuovamente Lop Nur, dove investigò la vera natura del "Lago errante", che doveva il suo nome al fatto che nel corso dei secoli aveva cambiato di sede, un fenomeno che Hedin scoprì essere dovuto alla sabbia accumulata che lo faceva traboccare nel terreno sottostante.
Il suo resoconto venne pubblicato nel 1941 in italiano da Einaudi. In occasione di questo viaggio scoprì anche le rovine dell'antica città di Loulan, abbandonata nel IV secolo d.C. Nel 1905 ritenta la spedizione tibetana, questa volta con successo nonostante venisse ostacolato dalle autorità inglesi, evidentemente timorose che potesse aprire nuovi canali diplomatici con il Paese himalayano. Fu il primo occidentale a entrare nell'allora città proibita di Lhasa, dove riuscì a stringere un vera amicizia con il giovane Dalai Lama, il che gli permise di visitare quasi l'intero Tibet. Fu infatti instancabile viaggiatore, tanto da superare per otto volte la catena dell'Himalaya e da accumulare una distanza percorsa di 26.000 chilometri, e cioè superiore a quella che separa i due poli.

Tornato in patria nel 1908 lo aspetta una lunga pausa, fino al 1927, quando venne incaricato di dirigere una spedizione internazionale nel Xinjiang e nella Mongolia esterna. Questa volta il pericolo maggiore è rappresentato dalla guerra civile che divampa in Cina, tanto che ebbe a scrivere: «Mi sento essere un pastore che deve proteggere il suo gregge dai lupi, dai banditi e soprattutto dai governatori». Chang Kai-shek lo incaricò di studiare la possibilità di costruire una strada carrozzabile che ripercorresse l'itinerario della Via della Seta.

L'appoggio del generalissimo cinese fu peraltro essenziale per il successo della missione, terminata nel 1935. Fu il suo ultimo viaggio. Nel 1904 Sven Hedin ebbe l'onore di essere l'ultimo cittadino svedese a essere nobilitato, infatti dopo di lui il re di Svezia cesserà di concedere titoli nobiliari. Fu scrittore e saggista molto prolifico, con i suoi 65 volumi e le 25.000 lettere mandate a colleghi, amici e semplici corrispondenti. Il timore di una espansione prima zarista e poi bolscevica lo portò a simpatizzare per la Germania. Sono peraltro gli anni in cui una parte della cultura svedese riscopre le proprie radici "nordiche" e lo scandinavismo diventa la controparte del teutonismo germanico. È interessante ricordare che Hedin sarà in seguito emarginato per le sue simpatie filo-naziste, ma il suo libro del '37 non fu mai pubblicato in Germania perché aveva egli stesso radici ebraiche e aveva criticato le persecuzioni nei confronti degli ebrei. Hedin comunque non rinnegherà mai la posizione filo-tedesca da lui assunta, anche con i suoi scritti, non ultimo il pamphlet anti-Roosvelt del 1942 (Amerika im Kampf der Kontinente, pubblicato a Lipsia). Su Hedin agì in maniera fondamentale il legame con Karl Haushofer, il fondatore della geopolitica moderna. E come Haushofer, anche Hedin merita di essere "riscoperto" e di riaffiorare alla cultura europea. Proprio come fece il suo lago errante.

Luigi G. De Anna

mercredi, 12 octobre 2011

Mega-US-Botschaften im Zentrum des »Eurasischen Balkans«

Mega-US-Botschaften im Zentrum des »Eurasischen Balkans«

Wolfgang Effenberger

 

Mit Neugier und Interesse folgte der Verfasser einer außergewöhnlichen Offerte nach Armenien. Die Einladung an die Wiege des Christentums und die Schnittstelle  der Welten hatte der Präsident der DUA (Deutsche Universität in Armenien), Herr Eduard Saroyan, ausgesprochen. Vorgesehen waren jeweils ein Vortrag am Orientalischen Institut der Akademie der Wissenschaften von Armenien zum Thema »Armenien – Opfer geo-strategischer Interessen« sowie an der DUA. Hier sollte die Schwierigkeit im Umgang mit dem Völkermord an den Armeniern beleuchtet werden.

 

Quelle: the armenian reporter

Schon auf der Fahrt vom modernen Flughafen nach Eriwan fiel dem Verfasser  entlang der Ausfallstraße ein kaum enden wollendes, mauerbewehrtes Areal auf.

Von meinem Gastgeber und Fahrer wurde ich unvermittelt aufgeklärt:

Es handelt sich um die US-Botschaft in Armenien! Dem Verfasser drängte sich sofort die Frage nach dem Zweck und den Motiven dieser ungewöhnlich großen und außerhalb der Hauptstadt liegenden Botschaft für einen Staat von drei Millionen Einwohnern auf.

Mehr: http://info.kopp-verlag.de/hintergruende/geostrategie/wolfgang-effenberger/mega-us-botschaften-im-zentrum-des-eurasischen-balkans-.html

mardi, 13 septembre 2011

Il rafforzamento dell’alleanza sino-pakistana

Il rafforzamento dell’alleanza sino-pakistana

Francesco Brunello Zanitti

Ex: http://www.eurasia-rivista.org/

Il legame strategico tra Pechino e Islamabad è sempre più forte. Il tradizionale rapporto diplomatico tra i due paesi si è consolidato recentemente con l’intensificarsi dei legami economici, commerciali, energetici e militari, unitamente all’allontamento pakistano nei confronti degli Stati Uniti. La stabilità dell’alleanza sino-pakistana è però messa alla prova dalle sfide poste dai gruppi armati degli estremisti islamici operanti nello Xinjiang cinese.

La crisi dei rapporti tra Stati Uniti e Pakistan degli ultimi mesi ha comportato il rafforzamento dello storico legame esistente tra Islamabad e Pechino. Le relazioni tra i due paesi sono in realtà ottime da circa un trentennio, a differenza di quelle pakistano-statunitensi; il proficuo rapporto diplomatico tra Stati Uniti e Pakistan ha, infatti, ricoperto un ruolo fondamentale nelle rispettive politiche estere durante l’intervento sovietico in Afghanistan tra anni ’70 e ’80, per poi subire un deciso deterioramento all’inizio degli anni ’90. Il rapporto tra Washington e Islamabad è tornato ad essere importante in seguito all’invasione afghana statunitense del 2001, nella quale il Pakistan è stato utilizzato come fondamentale punto d’appoggio per il controllo di Kabul. L’unilaterale bombardamento dei territori nord-occidentali del Pakistan, la crescente ingerenza statunitense nella politica interna pakistana, mediante mezzi militari e servizi d’intelligence, e i comportamenti ambigui pakistani in alcune questioni di primaria importanza hanno comportato un deciso peggioramento delle relazioni tra Stati Uniti e Pakistan. Questo deterioramento ha raggiunto l’apice tra maggio e giugno, in seguito alla rivendicazione statunitense dell’uccisione di Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan.

I sempre più tesi rapporti tra i due paesi sono legati, inoltre, all’avvicinamento statunitense nei confronti dell’India, il quale ha raggiunto il proprio culmine nel 2007, mai così evidente rispetto al passato; l’amminsitrazione Bush e l’attuale governo di Manmohan Singh avevano delle ottime relazioni diplomatiche. Il Pakistan non gradisce, inoltre, il ruolo affidatogli dopo l’invasione statunitense dell’Afghanistan nel 2001, nel quale osserva un pericoloso calo del proprio ascendente strategico su Kabul. L’Afghanistan è tradizionalmente considerato da Islamabad una propria area d’influenza, strategicamente importante nel caso di un conflitto con l’India, poiché visto come territorio di supporto o di ritirata nell’ipotesi di una massiccia invasione del Pakistan dell’esercito di Nuova Delhi.

Il primo paese a difendere il rispetto dell’integrità territoriale di Islamabad in seguito alla notizia della morte di Bin Laden è stata la Cina; visitata poche settimane dopo dal primo ministro Gilani. Il Pakistan avrebbe, inoltre, permesso ai militari cinesi di visionare i resti del velivolo statunitense di tecnologia Stealth impiegato dagli Stati Uniti nel territorio pakistano.

Il legame sino-pakistano rappresenterà un importante elemento delle future relazioni internazionali, in particolar modo nel confronto tra Stati Uniti e Cina, tra quest’ultima e l’India, nonché negli interessi cinesi in Afghanistan e nel più generale contesto del cosiddetto “Nuovo Grande Gioco” in Asia Centrale. Mentre il Pakistan nel corso degli anni ’80 fu un importante alleato degli Stati Uniti durante la guerra sovietica in Afghanistan, fondamentale territorio di transito per i rifornimenti militari destinati ai combattenti anti-sovietici, oggi Islamabad non garantisce, nell’ottica nordamericana, il medesimo contributo per il tentativo statunitense di controllare l’Afghanistan. La relazione con Islamabad rappresenta per gli Stati Uniti un elemento di vitale importanza per i propri interessi a Kabul. Basta considerare l’importanza strategica del paese pakistano, dotato degli unici punti d’accesso via mare per le truppe statunitensi e della NATO e per i rifornimenti militari, nonché territorio di collegamento geostrategico nel cuore dell’Eurasia. Il porto di Karachi è fondamentale per l’arrivo e invio di truppe e materiale bellico, passante poi in territorio pakistano mediante trasporto su strada, giungendo successivamente a Kabul e Kandahar. Gli Stati Uniti stanno ricercando una possibile alternativa ai rifornimenti via Pakistan, data l’insicurezza di Karachi e del confine lungo la linea Durand. Gli altri collegamenti ai porti situati in paesi confinanti con l’Afghanistan, Iran e Cina, sono impraticabili per evidenti motivi politici. Una via d’accesso alternativa è potenzialmente quella passante attraverso le ex-repubbliche sovietiche dell’Asia Centrale: esiste un discorso aperto con l’Uzbekistan, dal quale passerebbero i rifornimenti provenienti dal porto di Riga, in Lettonia, passando per il territorio russo e kazako. Esiste un’altra opzione, probabilmente maggiormente fattibile rispetto a quella precedente, vista la lunghezza del percorso e la possibile inclusione della Russia nell’affare afghano, prospettiva non gradita a Washington. E’ quella attraverso la Georgia, l’Azerbaigian, il Mar Caspio e il Turkmenistan oppure via Kazakistan e Uzbekistan. L’attenzione statunitense nei confronti di Baku, Ashagabat, Astana e Tashkent è in ogni caso in costante aumento.

Negli ultimi mesi è comunque evidente come il Pakistan punti maggiormente ad adottare una politica estera più autonoma nei confronti di Washington, attivandosi, inoltre, nel potenziamento delle relazioni con i vicini, soprattutto con la Cina, ma anche con Iran e Russia.

L’importanza strategica del Pakistan, unito al suo attivismo in politica estera, ha reso il governo del paese molto più convito nel richiedere il termine dei bombardamenti dei droni statunitensi nelle province nord-occidentali. Nel caso in cui ciò non avvenga, il Pakistan è pronto ad adottare una politica ancor più marcatamente filo-cinese, avendo, inoltre, l’appoggio della Cina, critica nei confronti delle azioni statunitensi nel paese. Un ulteriore fattore è legato al termine dell’aiuto economico statunitense, unito al declinare dei rifornimenti militari: il Pakistan guarda anche in questo caso a incrementare i propri legami economici e militari con la Cina.

Un’altra arma spendibile a livello diplomatico dal Pakistan è legata alle risorse energetiche. Lo stretto rapporto con Pechino, oltre ad aumentare l’influenza cinese in Asia Meridionale e Centrale, comporterebbe un’importante vittoria per la Cina nella competizione riguardante l’approvigionamento di petrolio e gas naturale.

La Cina è interessata a investire massicciamente in Pakistan. I punti chiave della strategia energetica sino-pakistana sono rappresentati dal potenziamento del porto di Gwadar, dalla quale possono passare i gasdotti e oleodotti provenienti dall’Iran. I progetti d’investimento cinese nel paese sono legati alla realizzazione del gasdotto IP, al quale potrebbe partecipare in sostituzione dell’India, con evidenti vantaggi in termini economici per il Pakistan grazie ai diritti di transito. La Cina è interessata al potenziamento di infrastrutture, strade e ferrovie pakistane, unitamente alla costruzione dei collegamenti per il petrolio e il gas naturale lungo il territorio pakistano partendo dalla città beluca per arrivare al Gilgit-Baltistan. I progetti sino-pakistani sono legati al potenziamento degli assi viari che assieme alle pipeline collegherebbero il Pakistan allo Xinjiang. A questo proposito sono in progetto la costruzione di diversi collegamenti stradali e ferroviari tra Kashgar e Abbotabad, e tra la città dello Xinjiang e Havelian. Un ulteriore collegamento tra i due paesi lungo confine è quello delle fibre ottiche, mentre il più importante e ambizioso progetto caratterizzante la cooperazione sino-pakistana è il collegamento stradale, ferroviario ed energetico tra Gwadar e Urumqi.

La recente visita di Gilani a Pechino si è conclusa con la firma di importanti accordi commerciali, finanziari e tecnologici, seguito dei colloqui del dicembre 2010, nei quali erano previsti il potenziamento della cooperazione in diversi settori: energia, sistema bancario, tecnologia, costruzione, difesa e sicurezza. Il crescente legame economico tra Pechino e Islamabad è unito alla tradizionale e comune avversione verso l’India, la quale può essere ostacolata nella sua ascesa in Asia Meridionale dall’azione comune dei due paesi asiatici. La Cina aiutò militarmente il Pakistan in seguito alla guerra sino-indiana del 1962, così come fornì la tecnologia nucleare al paese dopo che l’India nel 1974 iniziò i suoi primi test nucleari. Tra gli anni ’80 e ’90 la Cina ha stabilito un’alleanza militare e nucleare con Islamabad, ancora oggi molto forte. Più del 40% delle esportazioni militari cinesi sono destinate al Pakistan. I due paesi hanno in progetto la produzione congiunta degli aerei da combattimento JF-17 Thunder (FC-1 Fierce in Cina). Durante il mese di marzo 2011 si è svolta un’importante esercitazione aereonautica tra la Pakistan Air Force (PAF) e la People’s Liberation Army Force (PLAFF) denominata Shaheen 1 (in urdu significa aquila). Si tratta della prima manovra militare tra PAF e PLAFF, alla quale si aggiungeranno nel corso del 2011 delle esercitazioni tra il PLA e l’esercito pakistano. Un simile legame militare tra i due paesi, oltre ad essere un importante fattore all’interno degli equilibri asiatici, dimostra come oggi la Cina possa agire molto più attivamente rispetto al passato in uno Stato considerato strategico per gli Stati Uniti per la propria politica in Afghanistan, ma anche in Asia Meridionale. Dato il lento declino economico statunitense, il Pakistan ha individuato nella Cina un’alternativa importante, la quale, a differenza di Washington, è in costante ascesa economica e militare. La cooperazione militare sino-pakistana è valutata da Islamabad e Pechino anche come una forma di bilanciamento nell’area nei confronti delle simili politiche militari adottate da Russia e India.

Inoltre, mentre gli Stati Uniti premono sul Pakistan per il proprio arsenale nucleare, la Cina rappresenta un’importante fonte di tecnologia in questo settore. A questo proposito Pechino sarebbe intenzionata a finanziare i progetti di costruzione per nuovi reattori nucleari in Pakistan.

Per quanto riguarda un fattore negativo legato alle relazioni tra Cina e Pakistan, è possibile fare riferimento all’attuale situazione dello Xinjiang. La regione cinese è un’area ricca di gas e petrolio, confinante con le repubbliche centro-asiatiche e con una considerevole presenza di abitanti di religione musulmana. Il territorio è attraversato da decenni dalla spinta indipendentista degli uiguri. La Cina ha sostenuto che i responsabili degli attentati avvenuti nello Xinjiang poche settimane fa sono estremisti islamici dello East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) o Turkistani Islamic Party (TIP) provenienti da campi d’addestramento situati nelle zone tribali del Pakistan. L’ETIM ha legami con la rete Haqqani e con il Tehrik – e – Taliban Pakistan (TTP). L’accusa cinese di simili resposabilità pakistane per le violenze degli uiguri rappresentano un campanello d’allarme per Islamabad. Secondo l’intelligence pakistana la Cina starebbe premendo il Pakistan affinché crei delle basi militari nelle aree tribali in modo da controllare la possibile azione degli estremisti e il loro successivo sconfinamento in territorio cinese. La Cina avrebbe anche intenzione di inviare delle proprie truppe nelle FATA e nella Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, senza comunque l’intenzione di creare delle basi militari permanenti. Sarà da valutare come gli Stati Uniti considereranno la possibile presenza militare cinese in Pakistan.

I media cinesi hanno criticano significativamente le autorità pakistane per l’incapacità dell’esercito di controllare le aree tribali del paese. Il quotidiano pakistano “Dawn” ha sostenuto come gli attentati possano portare a della conseguenze negative nelle relazioni bilaterali tra Islambad e Pechino, comportando delle serie ripercussioni soprattutto per il Pakistan. Allo stesso modo l’incapacità di Islamabad nel prevenire l’azione dei terroristi può risultare controproducente per la potenziale cooperazione sino-pakistana in Afghanistan. Una possibile azione congiunta delle autorità pakistane assieme a quelle cinesi potrebbe garantire, invece, nell’ottica di Pechino, un possibile miglioramento della condizione delle aree nord-occidentali del Pakistan, avendo come conseguenza dei possibili benifici per la situazione dello Xinjiang. Una condizione importante per la Cina è rappresentata dal contemporaneo termine dei bombardamenti statunitensi nell’area, i quali possono fomentare l’estremismo islamico. Senza dubbio la cooperazione tra Islamabad e Pechino nelle FATA e nella Khyber Pakhtunkhwa renderà ancora più evidente lo stretto legame sino-pakistano, foriero di interessanti conseguenze nel contesto dell’attuale competizione in corso nella regione.

*Francesco Brunello Zanitti, Dottore in Storia della società e della cultura contemporanea (Università di Trieste). Ricercatore dell’IsAG per l’area Asia Meridionale, è autore del libro Progetti di egemonia (Edizioni all’Insegna del Veltro, Parma 2011). In “Eurasia” ha pubblicato Neoconservatorismo americano e neorevisionismo israeliano: un confronto (nr. 3/2010, pp. 109-121).