We have seen how China is meticulously planning all its crucial geopolitical and geoeconomic moves all the way to 2030 and beyond.
What you are about to read next comes from a series of private, multilateral discussions among intel analysts, and may helpfully design the contours of the Big Picture.
In China, it’s clear the path ahead points to boosting internal demand, and shifting monetary policy towards the creation of credit to consolidate the building of world-class domestic industries.
In parallel, there’s a serious debate in Moscow that Russia should proceed along the same path. As an analyst puts it, “Russia should not import anything but technologies it needs until it can create them themselves and export only the oil and gas that is required to pay for imports that should be severely restricted. China still needs natural resources, which makes Russia and China unique allies. A nation should be as self-sufficient as possible.”
That happens to mirror the exact CCP strategy, as delineated by President Xi in his July 31 Central Committee meeting.
And that also goes right against a hefty neoliberal wing in the CCP – collaborationists? – who would dream of a party conversion into Western-style social democracy, on top of it subservient to the interests of Western capital.
Comparing China’s economic velocity now with the US is like comparing a Maserati Gran Turismo Sport (with a V8 Ferrari engine) with a Toyota Camry. China, proportionately, holds a larger reservoir of very well educated young generations; an accelerated rural-urban migration; increased poverty eradication; more savings; a cultural sense of deferred gratification; more – Confucianist – social discipline; and infinitely more respect for the rationally educated mind. The process of China increasingly trading with itself will be more than enough to keep the necessary sustainable development momentum going.
The hypersonic factor
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the consensus in Moscow – from the Kremlin to the Foreign Ministry – is that the Trump administration is not “agreement-capable”, a diplomatic euphemism that refers to a de facto bunch of liars; and it’s also not “legal-capable”, an euphemism applied, for instance, to lobbying for snapback sanctions when Trump has already ditched the JCPOA.
President Putin has already said in the recent past that negotiating with Team Trump is like playing chess with a pigeon: the demented bird walks all over the chessboard, shits indiscriminately, knocks over pieces, declares victory, then runs away.
In contrast, serious lobbying at the highest levels of the Russian government is invested in consolidating the definitive Eurasian alliance, uniting Germany, Russia and China.
But that would only apply to Germany after Merkel. According to a US analyst, “the only thing holding back Germany is that they can expect to lose their car exports to the US and more, but I tell them that can happen right away because of the dollar-euro exchange rate, with the euro becoming more expensive.”
On the nuclear front, and reaching way beyond the current Belarus drama – as in there will be no Maidan in Minsk – Moscow has made it very clear, in no uncertain terms, that any missile attack from NATO will be interpreted as a nuclear attack.
The Russian defensive missile system – including the already tested S-500s, and soon the already designed S-600s – arguably may be 99% effective. That means Russia would still have to absorb some punishment. And this is why Russia has built an extensive network of nuclear bomb shelters in big cities to protect at least 40 million people.
Russian analysts interpret China’s defensive approach along the same lines. Beijing will want to develop – if they have not already done so – a defensive shield, and still retain the ability to strike back against a US attack with nuclear missiles.
The best Russian analysts, such as Andrei Martyanov, know that the three top weapons of a putative next war will be offensive and defensive missiles and submarines combined with cyber warfare capabilities.
The key weapon today – and the Chinese understand it very clearly – is nuclear submarines. Russians are observing how China is building their submarine fleet – carrying hypersonic missiles – faster than the US. Surface fleets are obsolete. A wolf pack of Chinese submarines can easily knock out a carrier task force. Those 11 US carrier task forces are in fact worthless.
So in the – horrifying – event of the seas becoming un-sailable in a war, with the US, Russia and China blocking all commercial traffic, that’s the key strategic reason pushing China to obtain as much of its natural resources overland from Russia.
Even if pipelines are bombed they can be fixed in no time. Thus the supreme importance for China of Power of Siberia – as well as the dizzying array of Gazprom projects.
The Hormuz factor
A closely guarded secret in Moscow is that right after German sanctions imposed in relation to Ukraine, a major global energy operator approached Russia with an offer to divert to China no less than 7 million barrels a day of oil plus natural gas. Whatever happens, the stunning proposal is still sitting on the table of Shmal Gannadiy, a top oil/gas advisor to President Putin.
In the event that would ever happen, it would secure for China all the natural resources they need from Russia. Under this hypothesis, the Russian rationale would be to bypass German sanctions by switching its oil exports to China, which from a Russian point of view is more advanced in consumer technology than Germany.
Of course this all changed with the imminent conclusion of Nord Stream 2 – despite Team Trump taking no prisoners to sanction everyone in sight.
Backdoor intel discussions made it very clear to German industrialists that if Germany would ever lose its Russian source of oil and natural gas, coupled with the Strait of Hormuz shut down by Iran in the event of an American attack, the German economy might simply collapse.
There have been serious cross-country intel discussions about the possibility of a US-sponsored October Surprise involving a false flag to be blamed on Iran. Team Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran has absolutely nothing to do with the JCPOA. What matters is that even indirectly, the Russia-China strategic partnership has made it very clear that Tehran will be protected as a strategic asset – and as a key node of Eurasia integration.
Cross-intel considerations center on a scenario assuming a – quite unlikely – collapse of the government in Tehran. The first thing Washington would do in this case is to pull the switch of the SWIFT clearing system. The target would be to crush the Russian economy. That’s why Russia and China are actively increasing the merger of the Russian Mir and the Chinese CHIPS payment systems, as well as bypassing the US dollar in bilateral trade.
It has already been gamed in Beijing that were that scenario ever to take place, China might lose its two key allies in one move, and then have to face Washington alone, still on a stage of not being able to assure for itself all the necessary natural resources. That would be a real existential threat. And that explains the rationale behind the increasing interconnection of the Russia-China strategic partnership plus the $400 billion, 25-year-long China-Iran deal.
Bismarck is back
Another possible secret deal already discussed at the highest intel levels is the possibility of a Bismarckian Reinsurance Treaty to be established between Germany and Russia. The inevitable consequence would be a de facto Berlin-Moscow-Beijing alliance spanning the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), alongside the creation of a new – digital? – Eurasian currency for the whole Eurasian alliance, including important yet peripheral actors such as France and Italy.
Well, Beijing-Moscow is already on. Berlin-Beijing is a work in progress. The missing link is Berlin-Moscow.
That would represent not only the ultimate nightmare for Mackinder-drenched Anglo-American elites, but in fact the definitive passing of the geopolitical torch from maritime empires back to the Eurasian heartland.
It’s not a fiction anymore. It’s on the table.
Adding to it, let’s do some little time traveling and go back to the year 1348.
The Mongols of the Golden Horde are in Crimea, laying siege to Kaffa – a trading port in the Black Sea controlled by the Genoese.
Suddenly, the Mongol army is consumed by bubonic plague.
They start catapulting contaminated corpses over the walls of the Crimean city.
So imagine what happened when ships started sailing again from Kaffa to Genoa.
They transported the plague to Italy.
By 1360, the Black Death was literally all over the place – from Lisbon to Novgorod, from Sicily to Norway. As much as 60% of Europe’s population may have been killed – over 100 million people.
A case can be made that the Renaissance, because of the plague, was delayed by a whole century.
Covid-19 is of course far from a medieval plague. But it’s fair to ask.
What Renaissance could it be possibly delaying?
Well, it might well be actually advancing the Renaissance of Eurasia. It’s happening just as the Hegemon, the former “end of history”, is internally imploding, “distracted from distraction by distraction”, to quote T.S. Eliot. Behind the fog, in prime shadowplay pastures, the vital moves to reorganize the Eurasian land mass are already on.
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Ever since I was a small child, roughly from age three or four, I remember staring transfixed at any map I could get my hands on. Atlases, globes, wall charts, everything to satisfy my voracious appetite for map-reading. It’s important to not confuse the map for the territory, but a map is a story of the territory, for those who know how to read it. I would scan maps for hours on end, learning to the best of my ability the various geographical features, the names of countries, cities, and capitals. Much of it I still remember even at my embarrassingly advanced age. So, it should come as no surprise to anyone that I was positively giddy when I heard that a book about maps that explain the world exists. And indeed, 
En 1905, Mark Sykes, alors jeune diplomate britannique à Constantinopleiii, a rédigé et transmis un rapport sur les sources affleurantes de pétrole entre Bitlis, Mossoul et Baghdad (Report on the Petroliferous Districts of Mesopotamia), à partir du travail d’un ingénieur allemand engagé par la Liste Civile du Sultan. L’attaché militaire anglais, lui, avait déjà été l’auteur d’un article publié en mai 1897 avec une carte des zones pétrolières en Mésopotamie, et en 1904 il avait pu récupérer une copie de la carte des zones pétrolières récemment dressée par un allemand employé du Syndicat ferroviaire anatolien. Cette prospection allemande était menée dans le cadre légal de la concession de la voie ferrée Konya Bagdad et au-delà vers Bassora, signée en 1902 entre une filiale ferroviaire de la Deutsche Bank et l’Empire Ottoman. Car cette concession allemande lui avait accordé un droit complet de prospection, exploitation et vente de produits miniers, pétrole inclus, sur une bande de 20 km de chaque côté du tracé prévu. L’ambassadeur britannique O’Connor transmit à Londres en soulignant « that many of the springs can be profitably worked before the completion of the Baghdad Railway by mean of pipelines to the sea». Dès 1905 plusieurs visées concurrentes se font jour, envers les ressources pétrolières de Mésopotamie et les voies de transfert. 
En 1901 Théodore Herzl s’était vu refuser par le Sultan la concession coloniale juive en Palestine qu’il réclamait en proposant le rachat de l’écrasante dette ottomane et un crédit de 81 ans. Après avoir obtenu au printemps 1902 d’énormes crédits de 3 grandes banques européennes, Crédit Lyonnais, Dresdner Bank, Lloyds, Herzl retourna à Constantinople et là écrivit en français le 25 juillet 1902 une longue lettre au Sultanxvi, incluant : « Par contre le gouvernement Impérial accorderait une charte ou concession de colonisation juive en Mésopotamie – comme Votre Majesté Impériale avait daigné m’offrir en février dernier- en ajoutant le territoire de Haïfa et ses environs en Palestine... » 
Sterker nog: er is eigenlijk véél meer overeenstemming in de geopolitieke wereld dan er in de economische wereld is. Zonder dat die overeenstemming met de macht van de straat afgedwongen wordt (cfr. de zogenaamde consensus in de wetenschappelijke wereld over klimaatopwarming, afgedwongen door activistische politieke instellingen en dito van mediatieke roeptoeters voorziene burgers). Er zijn een aantal verschillende verklaringsmodellen, geen daarvan is volledig, en er is sprake van voortschrijdend inzicht, maar de voorlopige conclusies gaan geen radicaal verschillende richtingen uit. Én het is ook gewoon een razend interessant kennisdomein, zeker in tijden waarin grotendeels gedaan wordt alsof grenzen voor eeuwig vastliggen, handels- en andere oorlogen zich bedienen van flauwe excuses, en gedateerde internationale instellingen hun leven proberen te rekken.
En dan is er natuurlijk ook nog Karl als vader van Albrecht. De twee kwamen na de “vlucht” van Hess in een neerwaartse spiraal terecht (het nationaal-socialistische regime was zich wél bewust van het feit dat er een samenhang was tussen Hess en de Haushofers die véél verder ging dan het promoten van geopolitieke ideeën), maar zelfs binnen die spiraal bleven ze een merkwaardig evenwicht bewaren. Een evenwicht tussen afkeuring en goedkeuring van de Führer, tussen conservatisme en nationaal-socialisme, tussen oost en west, tussen esoterisme en wetenschap. Een evenwicht dat kennelijk heel moeilijk te begrijpen is in hysterische tijden als de onze en dat daarom steeds weer afgedaan wordt als onzin. Een evenwicht dat Karl Haushofer niet kon redden van een gevangenschap in Dachau en Albrecht Haushofer van executie in de nasleep van het conservatieve von Stauffenberg-complot. Een evenwicht dat Karl Haushofer en zijn echtgenote Martha definitief verloren toen ze zich op 10 maart 1946 achtereenvolgens vergiftigden en ophingen (al lijkt me dat, in combinatie met het lot van Hess, sowieso ook weer een eigenaardigheid).
Karl Haushofer en het nationaal-socialisme: tijd, werk en invloed
Sollte der Iran eine weitere Tanker-Flottille auf die Reise nach Südamerika schicken, könnten die Vereinigten Staaten ihre bisherige Zurückhaltung aufgeben und die Schiffe mit militärischer Gewalt an der Weiterfahrt hindern.
Pepe Escobar esquisse les grandes lignes des deux premières sessions du 13ème Congrès national du peuple, dont la troisième session devait se tenir le 5 mars 2020 mais a été postposée à cause de la crise du coronavirus. On peut d’ores et déjà imaginer que la Chine acceptera la légère récession dont elle sera la victime et fera connaître les mesures d’austérité qu’elle sera appelée à prendre. Pour Escobar, les conclusions de ce 13ème Congrès apporteront une réponse aux plans concoctés par les Etats-Unis et couchés sur le papier par le Lieutenant-Général H. R. McMaster (photo). Ce militaire du Pentagone décrit une Chine constituant trois menaces pour le « monde libre » avec : 1) Le programme « Made in China 2025 » visant le développement des nouvelles technologies, notamment autour de la firme Huawei et du développement de la 5G, indispensable pour créer les « smart cities » de l’avenir et où la Chine, en toute apparence, s’est dotée d’une bonne longueur d’avance ; 2) avec le programme des « routes de la soie », par lequel les Chinois se créent une clientèle d’Etats, dont le Pakistan, et réorganisent la masse continentale eurasienne ; 3) avec la fusion « militaire/civile », coagulation des idées de Clausewitz et de List, où, via la téléphonie mobile, la Chine s’avèrera capable de développer de larges réseaux d’espionnage et des capacités de cyber-attaques. Début mai 2020, Washington refuse de livrer des composantes à Huawei ; la Chine rétorque en plaçant Apple, Qualcomm et Cisco sur une « liste d’entreprises non fiables » et menace de ne plus acheter d’avions civils de fabrication américaine. Le tout, et Escobar n’en parle pas dans son article récent, dans un contexte où la Chine dispose de 95% des réserves de terres rares. Ces réserves lui ont permis, jusqu’ici, de marquer des points dans le développement des nouvelles technologies, dont la 5G et la téléphonie mobile, objets du principal ressentiment américain à l’égard de Pékin. Pour affronter l’avance chinoise en ce domaine, l’hegemon doit trouver d’autres sources d’approvisionnement en terres rares : d’où la proposition indirecte de Trump d’acheter le Groenland au royaume de Danemark, formulée l’automne dernier et reformulée en pleine crise du coronavirus. La Chine est présente dans l’Arctique, sous le couvert d’une série de sociétés d’exploitation minière dans une zone hautement stratégique : le passage dit « GIUK » (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom) a été d’une extrême importance pendant la seconde guerre mondiale et pendant la guerre froide. L’ensemble de l’espace arctique le redevient, et de manière accrue, vu les ressources qu’il recèle, dont les terres rares que cherchent à s’approprier les Etats-Unis, et vu le passage arctique, libéré des glaces par les brise-glaces russes à propulsion nucléaire, qui deviendra une route plus courte et plus sécurisée entre l’Europe et l’Extrême-Orient, entre le complexe portuaire Anvers/Amsterdam/Hambourg et les ports chinois, japonais et coréens. L’hegemon a donc un double intérêt dans ses projets groenlandais qu’il est en train d’articuler : s’installer et profiter des atouts géologiques du Groenland, saboter l’exploitation de la route arctique. La crise du coronavirus cache cette problématique géopolitique et géoéconomique qui concerne l’Europe au tout premier plan ! 
